https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... elligence/
Israel likely to strike Iran in coming months, warns U.S. intelligence
A preemptive attack would set back Iran’s nuclear program by mere weeks or months but significantly escalate tensions across the Middle East, according to a U.S. intelligence report.
The report warned that Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025. Current and former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the finding derives from an analysis of Israel’s planning following its bombing of Iran in late October, which degraded its air defenses and left Tehran exposed to a follow-on assault. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly classified intelligence.
The military intelligence report spelled out two potential strike options, each involving the United States providing support in the form of aerial refueling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, said those familiar with the document. Such reliance on the United States in any strike on Iran — even one that yields only modest results — underscores Washington’s leverage over Israel’s path forward.
A distance attack, known as a standoff strike, would see Israeli aircraft firing air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace, the intelligence report said. A more risky stand-in attack would see Israeli jets enter Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster. The Trump administration approved the sale of guidance kits for those bunker busters last week and made a notification to Congress that it had done so.
The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials. Any attack also would incentivize Iran to pursue weapons-grade enrichment of uranium, the officials said, a long-standing red line for the United States and Israel.
The six-month time frame for a likely operation and details on the two potential strike scenarios have not been previously reported. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Israel is considering a strike on Iran this year.
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