EMBRAER: Notícias de Aviação Civil

[Cassio]

Segue interessante e esclarescedor artigo da Aviation Week...

Embraer Commercial Eyes Corporate Realignment, Shelves Turboprop
Sean Broderick Michael Bruno May 01, 2020

Embraer’s commercial operation has shifted focus to realigning with the rest of the company and conserving cash, with new-product development—including a notional turboprop—put on hold while the business regains its footing amid the Boeing deal collapse and coronavirus crisis, Embraer Commercial Aviation president and CEO John Slattery said.
Speaking with Aviation Week editors on a wide-ranging webinar May 1, Slattery emphasized that his 10,000-person business—carved out for the proposed tie-up with Boeing that the U.S. company walked away from on April 25—will be reshaped to better line up with Embraer’s defense and business aviation units.
“Our mindset is one Embraer, one team,” he said in his first public comments since the Boeing deal fell through. He acknowledged that the one-team approach will require organizational changes. “There’s replication now ... some of the more obvious synergies at the edge, we will review and possibly revert over the next few months.”
The sudden glut of aircraft in global airline fleets and shifting demand trends are triggering landscape-altering questions for all aircraft manufacturers. Chief among them: when will it make sense to invest in new products, and how will the pandemic’s ramifications change what airlines will want? For Embraer, some of the answers are simple, including plans for a large turboprop that will now be set aside, if not scrapped.
“I’m not going to say we’re not going to build [a turboprop], but let’s just be pragmatic here. Now is not the moment to be considering those decisions,” he said. “I certainly don’t see it on the immediate horizon, given what we’re looking at right now. But if something can change on our balance sheet, who knows?”
Slattery emphasized that Embraer’s post-Boeing-breakup strategy does not include seeking out a new partner. He stopped short of saying that Embraer is not open to being approached, however.
“There’s been no outreach by Embraer to anyone” about a possible partnership, he said. But, he added, “I can’t legislate for the inbound calls that could come.”
Slattery acknowledged that the company is “burning cash,” but the company raised $600 million in March and has the “the capabilities” to bring in more. “From an Embraer liquidity perspective, it is not something we’re concerned about.”
Of far greater concern and higher priority than new products or potential partnerships is staying connected with customers, Slattery said. The Boeing saga created “pain” for both Embraer and its commercial customers, in part because of a 40-day “blackout” ahead of the proposed tie-up’s April 25 deadline, he added.
“We’ve come out the other end, and we now have a standalone entity,” he said. “The full organization is effectively autonomous from engineering, operations, IT, procurement, sales, marketing. It’s a stand-alone, end-to-end OEM.”
Turning to the market, Slattery said the consensus he’s seeing among senior air transport executives is that the airline business’s recovery will take three-to-five years, but it will be uneven. Smaller aircraft and shorter haul flying is likely to bounce back more quickly as airlines focus on trip costs over capacity. Long-haul flying, particularly between countries, will likely take longer to recover, especially if the patchwork of responses for protecting passengers from COVID-19 does not become more streamlined, which would provide more comfort to would-be travelers.
“There will be a lot of anxiety around long-haul travel,” he said,
The combination means markets with significant domestic demand, led by China and the U.S., are best positioned to rebound quickly.
“It’s the basic law of economics—supply and demand. You want to be selling a fewer number of seats so that you can better manage the yield,” he said.
The trend means that aircraft in the 75-100-seat range, including Embraer’s E175 and E190-E2 series, are in advantageous spots and “will come back on the inside of the three-to-five-year program.”
Slattery emphasized that while Embraer’s perfect-world commercial lineup includes both the Pratt & Whitney PW1000-series-powered E175-E2 and E-195-E2, the smaller model’s incompatibility with U.S. airline scope clauses means the GE Aviation powered-E175, which is lighter and meets scope restrictions, has staying power. Embraer’s commercial backlog shows 333 aircraft, including 178 E175s, Aviation Week Fleet Data Services shows. It has 151 E190-E2-series aircraft on order but does not have a customer for the E175-E2.
“I would like it to be a uniform fleet,” Slattery said. “But we have an architectural infrastructure down in Brazil that we put in place. It’s a permanent hybrid line. It’s there for as long as we’re going to need it to build E1s and E2s on the same line. Whatever it is we’re allowed to build and produce, whatever the market wants, we’ll build the aircraft that they want.”
Slattery said the decision to terminate a flagging aircraft program “is not a unilateral decision” an OEM makes, but suggested that market forces, underscored by the empty order book, could doom the E175-E2.
“Right now, we’re ruthlessly focused on protecting our cash, and that’s what I’m going to support,” he said. “Sell more E1s, sell more E2s and generate some cash for the company. That’s my focus.”

Desculpem-me os editores por estar o texto em inglês... mas traduzir tomaria tempo que não tenho. Tese uma tese de mestrado para avaliar e vou participar de uma banca online em alguns dias.

[FCarvalho]

BNDES negocia com bancos financiamento de até US$1,5 bi para Embraer, pode elevar participação... -

https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/re ... copiaecola

[Túlio]

Uma péssima notícia para a Aviação Civil: WARREN BUFFET acaba de liquidar o seu vasto estoque de ações de companhias de Aviação Comercial. Isso inclui gigantes como Delta, United & quetales. Ressaltemos que as ações de uma raposa véia que nem ele nunca são ignoradas, são é seguidas! Ou seja, vem mais hecatombe por aí.

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ting-2020/


Mas e a EMBRAER com isso? Bueno, ela tem um pé na Aviação Civil e outro na Militar. Um excerto de artigo mostra uma interessante diferença nos tempos atuais:

Defense, as an industry, is at least at large as commercial aerospace. Exact comparisons are different and required making assumptions about how far to look up and down the supply chain. Historically, defense sales have grown more slowly than commercial aerospace sales, but the business is stable and not tied to the state of the overall economy. Lockheed Martin (LMT), for instance, generates more than 70% of sales from the U.S. Defense Department. The DoD buys products in good and bad economic times.

Defense, right now, is in far better shape than commercial aerospace and stocks reflect that fact. Large U.S. prime defense contractor stocks are down about 13% year to date and trade for 13 times estimated 2021 earnings.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing ... yptr=yahoo

Sobre o acima, uma comparação que eu ainda não havia feito: grosso modo, um papel da BA (Boeing) está valendo hoje, Mercado ainda fechado, quase o triplo de um da AIR.PA (Airbus); isso eu já fazia regularmente, a novidade é botar a LMT (Lockheed-Martin) na comparação: um papel dela está para a BA mais ou menos o mesmo que um da BA para a AIR.PA! Ou seja, a crise na Aviação Militar não é nem de longe tão dramática quanto na Civil, dado que esta é uma necessidade DE MERCADO e aquela DE ESTADO.

Mas o mais interessante é analisar os papéis contra um período, especialmente um mandato presidencial: sob o Trump (OUT 2016), quando se elegeu (valores arredondados, aqui não é o INVESTIR EM):

BA - USD 130
LMT - USD 240

Dois anos depois (OUT 2018):

BA - USD 320
LMT - USD 330

Neste momento (MAI 2020):

BA - USD 130
LMT - USD 380

E notemos que o Trump tem sido o POTUS militarmente menos belicoso dos EUA neste século! Mesmo assim...

(Curiosidade - o pico de valor do papel da LMT foi atingido em FEV/2020, ou seja, no presente ano, pouco mais de USD 440; já o da BA foi em FEV/2019, pouco abaixo de USD 450 e na "febre" da JV com a Embraer)


Pelo exposto, a meu ver a EMBRAER terá os braços da Aviação Executiva e da Militar (EDS), além dos Serviços, para se aguentar durante a longa crise que já começou e não tem data para terminar. Regional/Comercial é melhor deixar meio que em stand-by.

Porque se um índio nada bobo como o Warren Buffet sai de uma só vez de um setor, alguma coisa muito ruim sobre ele está por emergir. Cautela e caldo de galinha nunca fizeram mal a ninguém...

[Cassio]

https://www.aereo.jor.br/2020/05/04/emb ... -do-bndes/

[FCarvalho]

Capitalizar a empresa neste momento é o mais importante para manter a liquidez e a sustentabilidade econômica do negocio.
Os projetos voltados para EDS dentro dos planos de reequipamento das ffaa's podem, também, ser um plus para ajudar a segurar as pontas até que a poeira baixe.
O que não falta são buracos a serem tapados nos próximos dez anos nesta área.

abs

[FCarvalho]

E agora, Embraer?

https://exame.abril.com.br/revista-exam ... pmY-1cp3QE

[Cassio]

Agora é trabalhar muito... E bola para frente.

[Cassio]

https://www.aereo.jor.br/2020/05/12/emb ... s-no-1t20/

[Cassio]

Artigo interessante...

https://airinsight.com/the-sea-change-i ... itsubishi/

[FCarvalho]

Alternativa improvável chinesa

https://www.infodefensa.com/latam/2020/ ... xH_cDWFkiU

[Cassio]

Boa notícia...

https://www.cavok.com.br/congo-airways- ... ra-e190-e2

[Cassio]

Outra boa notícia....

https://www.airway.com.br/helvetic-airw ... e-pensava/

[FCarvalho]

Mas que coisa essa situação do E-175 E2.
Se a situação do limite de peso nos USA não se resolver logo, parece que este jato não tem futuro.
Se bem que por aqui ele seria uma excelente alternativa para várias rotas em todos os cantos do país.
Lamentável que não exista uma única empresa interessada em operar o modelo no Brasil.
Talvez fosse o pulo do gato para deslanchar as vendas dele em outros mercado fora dos USA.

abs

[arcanjo]

Congo Airways altera pedido do Embraer E175 para E190-E2



https://www.aereo.jor.br/2020/05/26/con ... a-e190-e2/

abs.

arcanjo

[Cassio]

A encomenda da Congo Airways era para o E175E1 e não E2. Agora mudaram para o E190E2. A existência ou não do E175E2 vai depender da recuperação do mercado e da renegociação das Scope Clauses nos EUA.

Se as Scope Clauses mudarem, vendemos o E2, se não mudarem vendemos o E1. Na atual conjuntura, mesmo que as Scope Clauses mudem, não venho as empresas fazendo muitas encomendas no curto prazo.