UCRÂNIA

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https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/05/13/ ... nder-fire/

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https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/mundo/r ... aiba-agora

[Suetham]

@Suetham , vc sabe qual é o canal do Prigozhin no Telegram?

Dizem que o WG não tem canal no Telegram, mas sobre Prigozhin, suponha-se que ele tem um canal oficial pelo que parece e um canal pessoal também:
Oficial: https://t.me/s/concordgroup_official
Pessoal: https://t.me/s/Prigozhin_hat/

Os músicos do WG parece que tbm tem um canal, eu sigo, entretanto não sei se é oficial:
https://t.me/orchestra_w

[Suetham]

Dia 13-14
Geral:

Read splendid analysis from our friend Aleks from BMA.
Very long read ahead (but it will explain to you operational and strategic picture of the conflict )

Black Mountain Analysis

As you all know, I only write updates when I have something to add to my previous analysis and operational updates. Such a situation has occurred now. I have decided to write a few words about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
My focus will be to show some possible scenarios and their implications. What I don’t want to do, and in fact can’t do, is to predict where and how the offensive will take place. Or even when. I don’t know.
In fact, I have already written/announced in previous articles that there will most likely be an offensive. Today I want to go deeper into some details. Moreover, I want to write a little about some circumstances in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), and take a look at further overall developments.

Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Basics
Ukraine is being forced to prepare and execute an offensive against the Russians. I’ll come to the objectives of those parties who force Ukraine in a minute.
But first, I want to reiterate a basic fact. The West is deliberately burning Ukraine and its human potential down with a “Scorched Earth” policy. If Ukraine was acting independently, and its goal would be to defeat Russia by bogging it down in a bloody insurgency war that would last years, it would not think about large scale offensives but rather a well-developed plan of withdrawal battles and ambushes.
Instead, there is a certain pool of Ukrainian manpower available to the West, with which the West aims to achieve as many goals as possible until the manpower is eventually annihilated. And the pool of manpower will certainly be annihilated. Everyone knows it. The Russians, the Ukrainian leadership (traitors), the West, and the Ukrainian soldiers who are going to be annihilated. Everyone knows it. And yet, for this war to end, this inevitable process needs to be undertaken. The annihilation.
This is extremely sad, and not a thing that I wish for. These are orthodox Slavs, as I and the Russians are. Even though the Ukrainians are moronic idiots, they are our moronic idiots and do not deserve to be annihilated. Well, all except for the Ukrainian Nazis. They indeed deserve the worst thinkable annihilation.
Keeping this in mind, we can now understand why this offensive most likely needs to take place. It is the last throw of the trained Ukrainian manpower still capable of conducting any kind of offensive action. And this last batch needs to achieve certain goals before the war ends. Unfortunately, everyone knows that they will need to go through this last batch of meat in order to achieve the inevitable outcome: the total Ukrainian surrender or the destruction of its physical ability to resist.

Ukrainian Objectives (Western Perspective)

Ukraine is tasked by its Western masters to achieve one or several of the following goals either fully or partially:

Kill at least several thousand Russians

Ukraine gathered, depending upon the source, approximately 100,000 men for this offensive. This is the manpower pool that is available for depletion. Usually, an attacker needs a 3:1 advantage over the defender in order to break through defensive lines. Since Russia has a far better trained army, far more modern weapons and tactics, and an Air Force that continues to increase its capacity for close air support (CAS), the ratio needs to be far higher. Ukraine needs to put approximately 10 soldiers in the field to overcome each Russian.
Let’s simplify here for the sake of explanation. Let’s assume that the Ukrainian army gathers all 100,000 men in Zaporizhzhia and tries a concentrated offensive in the direction of Melitopol. (BS, yes, but bear with me).
If Russia fields 10,000 men, all the Russians and all the Ukrainians would die. Again, this is only for illustration. Hence, Russia would be forced to field far more than 10,000 soldiers in order to stop the offensive and reduce its own losses.


I’d say that if Russia fortifies its defensive positions in Zaporizhzhia with 50,000 troops, the ratio against Ukraine would skyrocket from 1:10 to 1:20. With this ratio and battlefield setup, the Ukrainian offensive would fail and the Russians most likely would suffer far fewer than 10,000 casualties.
Why do I play with such figures? It is very simple: Russia only needs to invest 10,000 men and the Ukrainian offensive is doomed, right? All of them will die, but Ukraine will have lost 100,000 men and will not have achieved its goals, right?
Totally wrong. This is still a Special Military Operation. An SMO. Such casualties are no longer acceptable. They were in Phase 1, but no longer. Over the course of 14 months, Russia has lost some 20-30,000 people in Ukraine. Which is already a tragedy. If it would lose 10,000 men over the course of a few days/weeks, it would be a disaster. Remember the funerals with thousands of Ukrainian flags all over Ukraine? Such a situation would be likely in this scenario, though on a smaller scale, in Russia. That would cost the Russian government a lot of political capital and trust. The soldiers need to be protected. Still, it is an SMO, and not yet a war where such numbers would be acceptable.
You get my point? The Ukrainian soldiers are doomed. Most of them will die; they know that. But if that is so, why not achieve a huge blow against “Putin” by killing several thousand Russian soldiers in the process to add to the destabilization of the Russian position. Consider the following objectives:

Capture at least one major Russian city in Novorossiya

Will the offensive take place? Where will the offensive take place? When will it take place? With what intensity? I don’t know! I really don’t know. But I will share some of my thoughts with you.
Judging by the Russian overt preparations, it seems to me that the Russians are expecting a two-phase offensive. One phase in the Kharkov direction, most likely as deception and distraction; and the main offensive, or phase two, toward Melitopol.
Who knows?
Some people have discussed the possibility of an incursion into Belgorod or other Russian core territories. Possible, but I can’t see a single political advantage for Ukraine doing that.
Personally, I would argue that Mariupol would be the one big prize to win, for both the West and Ukraine. It would cause the biggest possible damage to Russia. How?
It would cut the land bridge to Crimea.
It would cost Russia the lives of thousands of soldiers defending the town. Russia can tactically retreat and withdraw from a lot of places but Mariupol is not one of those places. It would necessarily develop into a force-on-force battle to defend the town, which would be extremely costly in terms of casualties. Even if Russia would eventually succeed in defending the town, it would need to deal with the thousands of casualties.
Russia would lose its pearl and PR victory where it proudly films daily how the town is being rebuilt.
The Russians would need to reconquer the city, and they would destroy it again in the process. The reconquering would be extremely bloody and costly for the Russians.
Russia would lose a lot of trust of its own citizens; Novorossiyan citizens, as well as international partners.
Hence, I wouldn’t be surprised if we would see the following development from Ukraine:
Start probing and distracting attacks in the Zaporizhzhia Region.
After gaining Russia’s attention in Zaporizhzhia, start an armored offensive in the Kharkov region with all of the Western equipment. It should look very realistic. As we saw in Summer 2022 in Kherson, Ukraine would absorb thousands or tens of thousands of casualties for this mock offensive.
After having Russia’s full attention in the abovementioned fronts, Ukraine could start a massive insertion offensive with light units into Mariupol. What is an insertion offensive? An offensive that is designed to open a channel through which Ukraine could insert several tens of thousands of troops into Mariupol to take positions in the buildings there.


In the best-case scenario, this channel could be kept open to supply the garrison. In the worst-case scenario these people would simply serve as means to force Russia to reconquer Mariupol and again destroy the city in the process.
I’m not saying this will happen. And this is not my analysis. I have absolutely no idea what will happen at all. I only want to say that from my point of view, this would deal the biggest possible damage to Russia and I can imagine that this is the reason why the Pentagon is so optimistic about what is to come. This scenario is not unrealistic at all.
Always keep the following in mind: The West doesn’t care about the Ukrainians. If we again consider the Ukrainian force of 100,000 troops for the frontline, then we need to think about them, in business terms, as an investment. Ukraine is going to expend all of them in the expectation of gaining far more in return. Let me translate that into the situation on the ground: All Ukrainians accumulated for this offensive will, according to the West, die, be wounded, or be captured in order to achieve a return for the West that is more valuable than the loss of 100,000 Ukrainian men.
What is more valuable than 100,000 Ukrainian men for the West? Anything. They are worth nothing to the West. But let’s be more realistic. The Mariupol scenario mentioned above would be more than worth it. It would be a bigger return to the West than anyone can imagine.
Let’s conclude this point. Mariupol would be the crown jewel. But of course, any other Russian city in Novorossiya could be the target as well.

Sever the land bridge to Crimea at least for several hours/days
Severing the land bridge to Crimea would be also a major blow to Russia. Not as bad as losing Mariupol, but it would still be some kind of a defeat for the SMO with a possible conversion into war. Moreover, it would cost Russia many casualties in defense of the territory. But the losses would be far fewer than in the Mariupol scenario, since Russia would conduct a mobile defense with several fallback lines from Zaporizhzhia to the boundary of Crimea.

Put Ukrainian boots on Crimean soil, at least for several hours/days

The same as for the severing of the land bridge but more serious. It would be an attack on the Russian core territory. Hence, there is a real possibility that it could trigger protests in Moscow. Moreover, it would have an impact on the trust and confidence of the Crimean people in the ability of Moscow to protect them.
In fact, the goal of the West here is to show the Russian people that the SMO is not sufficient to defeat Ukraine/the West, and to trigger protest against Putin in demand of war. There are certain reasons why President Putin is still driving a SMO instead of a war. I understand them. In fact, it would be harmful for Russia to escalate the SMO into a war against a country like Ukraine. Such protests in support of the conversion to war wouldn’t be favorable for the Russian government.

Russian Objectives

For Russia, a concentrated frontline by Ukraine would be damaging under any circumstance. For many reasons:
Huge casualties. 1,000 – 10,000 troops are what I estimate between the best- and worst-case scenarios. This is inevitable in a force-on-force engagement, which Russia has tried to avoid at least since Phase 2 of the war.
There is not much space left for mobile defense (tactical retreating to pre-defined fallback positions) of the bigger cities under Russian control. Some could be abandoned in order to avoid huge casualties. Some (Mariupol etc.) will not be abandoned under any circumstance.
Political damage, as already described above, in case of losing critical cities, land bridges, or the entrance to Crimea.

The lives of the moronic Ukrainians count as well to Russia. Even though they are morons, that are dying like lemmings for people who don’t give a f*** about them. In the long term they still will be part of the Russian world and they are considered to be Russians. Hence, the Scorched Earth approach of the West at least need to be mitigated as much as possible.


This offensive could, within a few weeks, cost Ukraine up to 70,000 men in dead and critically wounded. It is far more favorable to Russia to hinder or mitigate the offensive so that these lives could be saved for Ukraine after the war.
Long-time readers of BMA know our thinking. We predict that Russia is fighting for a collapse. Of course, a collapse can happen because there are no people left. And this is indeed not an unrealistic option. Far more favorable would be to trigger the collapse by destroying materiel, not manpower. This would end the war before the human potential of Ukraine would run out. I will go deeper into this in the Logistics section below.
As we see, a Counteroffensive by Ukraine will not be good for Russia. Yes, these troops and equipment, unfortunately, will need to be destroyed anyway. But it is far more favorable for Russia to do that on Russian terms and in places of Russian choice, and not as Ukraine dictates.
My analysis of the events on the battlefield in recent days is that Russia is trying to either totally stop the offensive in its tracks, or if this is not possible, to take out as much steam as possible to make it less harmful. These are my observations:
Massive bombings of the Ukrainian rear. Everywhere in the close and middle distance from the frontlines. Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Pavlograd etc. These attacks are especially effective since the Russian Air Force has now started to make massive use of heavy glide-bombs. Targets are troops, equipment, and ammunition supplies/accumulations in the rear.
Massive missile attacks on the same targets as mentioned above. Most of these attacks are not reported or kept secret by the Ukrainians, but there are more than enough reports about massive damage dealt to targets in the rear.
I’m not entirely sure, even though I fully trust Larry Johnson with his analysis about the Pentagon leaks, whether there are Russian elements in play here as well. Releasing such documents at this time is not very favorable to the West and Ukraine.
Don’t get me wrong. It doesn’t mean that Russia triggered the release, even though it is not impossible. No, it also could mean that Russia can take heavy advantage of the release by promoting it in the Ukrainian social sphere.
I still believe that this is not a leak, but is engineered with a certain objective. Which one and by whom, I don’t know. But it is not unrealistic that such documents could be used by Russia as a means to reduce the morale, motivation, and support of the Ukrainian public and their soldiers.
If the (close to) real situation, which is absolutely catastrophic, becomes known somehow to the Ukrainian public and military personnel, this could have a massive impact on the soldiers’ performance on the battlefield.
To sum it up: Russia is either trying to avoid the counteroffensive entirely, or to make it as weak as possible in order to reduce its own military and political losses as much as possible.
Months ago, BMA identified five spots where Russia is grinding the Ukrainian army down in order to improve the Russian position. And this is what will continue: killing the Ukrainian army from a safe distance, and in small bites. Russia thereby avoids direct force-on-force engagements. Wagner and Artemovsk (Bakhmut) is something different. I will explain that later.

Russian Defense Strategy

We saw both the Russian mobile defense strategy and the Ukrainian double ruse approach. There is nothing new. Only the places will be new.

Ukrainian double ruse (Summer 2022):

Commenced probing attacks in Kherson while taking heavy casualties.
Commenced a large-scale offensive in Kharkov and took back critical (YES!) areas, that were prepared for a later envelopment of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, at the right time.
Continued the offensive in the South, conquering Kherson city. (Allowed by Russia, to avoid bloody force-on-force engagements.)


Russian mobile defense:
The layered retreat from the Kherson suburbs to avoid force-on-force engagements with its most valuable troops, the paratroopers. This bought time to evacuate the civilians and to organize a masterful one-day retreat of the Russian army over the Dnieper.
The layered retreat by the Russian army from the Kharkov region with minimal Russian losses and thousands of killed Ukrainians.
We should keep these things in mind when considering the future.
Now let’s think about the Russian defense. I’ll keep this section short. Many have analyzed the Russian fortifications already. That’s not what I want to do. I want to look at the big picture. Every fortification can be overcome. And holding a fortification or trench system also means heavy losses for the defender if the attacker can suppress the Russian artillery.
What does that mean? As long as the Russian artillery can hold the enemy back, the fortifications can work relatively well without many losses. The main source of Russian losses would be the Ukrainian artillery, which should be in place if the Ukrainians want to start an offensive.
If the Ukrainians manage to overcome the Russian artillery and move close to the first line of defense (trench systems), the Russians will have to withdraw. Not because they can’t hold it. No. But to avoid unnecessary casualties in trench warfare. That’s not what the Russian army should do in a SMO. Wagner is something different. We’ll come back to that later.
The same comes for the next line of defense.
Before Ukraine reaches the third line, the Russian military doctrine would order flank attacks on the invading force left and right from its angle of attack to envelop the Ukrainians. Possibly this could happen, if it is determined that the attacking force can be destroyed with less effort and fewer casualties.
What is more likely, is that every line of defense is also a fire bag and a mine trap. The invading force will be bombed heavily after taking each line of defense.
If we assume, for the sake of discussion, that the offensive will take place in Zaporizhzhia then the following scenario could be possible:
Attack the offensive formations with the glide-bombs (Air Force), missiles, and artillery until they reach the first line of defense. If they reach the first line of defense,
Retreat from the first defense line. If the enemy makes further progress,
Retreat from the second defense line.
Try to envelop doctrinally with reserve forces the invading force left and right on the second line of defense and destroy them. If this is not successful, then retreat to the next line trench system, prepared further in the rear.
Repeat the same.

The picture considers that the Ukrainians would probably decide to ford the Dnieper and come down from Zaporizhzhia at the same time, to have a two-vector approach.
Here, the Russians could fight at distance and withdraw several times when the Ukrainians come too close, until reaching either Melitopol or the border to Crimea. Both are very undesirable events for the Russians. Of course, I will again mention the prepared fire bags, ambushes, minefields etc.
Well, after explaining the defensive approach, it should be absolutely clear to everyone that an offensive in this direction would be a pure slaughter of Ukrainians. Without a doubt the ratio would be over 1:15 in favor of the Russians. This is well known to everyone, that’s why I have a hard time believing that this will be the main direction of the offensive. Or if there will be an offensive at all. Remember, the Russians are trying hard to prevent the offensive.
The NATO planners are not idiots, and they are very capable. Even though they don’t care about Ukrainian lives and all able-bodied troops will be invested (dead man walking already), they indeed have a goal that they want to achieve. Not a military goal but a political goal. I assume that IF the offensive takes place, we could experience some surprises that NATO has prepared for us.



Logistics (Why Ukraine is Still Allowed Logistics)
Why Ukraine still maintains logistics capabilities

Ukraine is able to supply its troops, defenses, and offensive actions only because Russia is allowing it.
Russia could completely stop the overt logistics in Ukraine within several days. I’m talking about bridges and the train traffic. The targets that would need to be impaired are well known, since they are Soviet built and they are not moving or hidden/concealed:
Bridges
Electrical substations
Locomotive depots
Train cars and locomotive maintenance stations
Main logistics and rail hubs
It would be pretty idiotic to eliminate the above infrastructures. I have argued against their destruction almost since the beginning of the SMO. Before I started BMA, I was arguing against that on my former Twitter account.

Why?

It is absolutely preferable for Russia to fight the Ukrainians close to Russia, where it has air superiority and a friendly population. It is very detrimental for Ukraine. Hence, Ukraine needs to be allowed to ship everything into the Donbass.
NATO needs to be allowed to dispose of its fighting potential as effectively as possible for political reasons. (BRICS/China etc.)

A long guerrilla war all across Ukraine would be very undesirable for Russia. It is better to destroy the West’s whole military potential, both equipment and manpower, in an organized manner and in places where it is desirable for Russia. See my five spots of grinding, mentioned above.
If Russia would stop the Ukrainian logistics today, the Donbass front would perhaps collapse. But NATO would be forced to go covert and slow their efforts. This would lead to the inevitable guerilla warfare all across Ukraine. And withdrawals to otherwise untouched cities, which would then also be destroyed.

In short: Russia stays idle to enable Ukraine to commit the most effective mass suicide that is possible. Russia doesn’t want to make problems for the Ukrainians while shipping themselves and more importantly their equipment, massively into a death trap.
Hence, this is the reasons why Ukraine still has logistics capabilities. Here I explained some logistics basics. Taking this into consideration, we can conclude that Ukraine (NATO) has a hell of a job to do in order to enable all the logistics necessary for the war effort. Now think about the counteroffensive south (In Crimean direction) over a major river, the Dnieper. An incredible number of resources are committed by NATO and Ukraine to enable this effort. It is in fact totally idiotic, and forced by the West only to achieve some political goals by pitting the Ukrainian male population against itself. Modern lemmings.
On the other hand, it is totally favorable for Russia that Ukraine needs to hold back something like 150,000 to 300,000 people in the rear only to maintain these insane logistics. Congratulations.

Sustainability of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in logistical terms

Shortest section: à Madness.
Not impossible, but as describe above you need tens of thousands of people dedicated to conduct logistics operations under such circumstances. Which circumstances? Operating across a major river where you have no air superiority. Going around the river at Zaporizhzhia is the same effort/madness as fording the Dnieper directly.
The more I write about the sustainability of an offensive to Melitopol/Crimea, the more I think that we will experience some surprises in other directions. IF the offensive takes place at all. Melitopol/Crimea is exactly this:

Artemovsk (Bakhmut)
Basics

The purpose of the Russian efforts at Artemovsk has been to further grind the Ukrainian troops and equipment down. I’d argue that the Ukrainian garrison in Artemovsk consists of 20% professional troops and special forces and 80% conscripts, with replenishments of “fresh” conscripts daily.



And that’s how it works. Ukraine needs two things:
Hold Artemovsk to not allow collapse of the whole Donbass frontline. Why?
To be able to prepare the counteroffensive to achieve one last big political goal. This would be impossible if the Ukrainians had to deal with a whole collapsing frontline in Donbass.
I would not be entirely surprised if the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be aimed at Soledar-Artemovsk.

Ukrainian troops

As mentioned above Ukraine is using mainly untrained conscripts to hold Artemovsk. With some professional officers and special forces for coordination and logistics.
The daily Ukrainian losses in manpower are horrendous. Nevertheless, if we take into consideration that Artemovsk should hold on for some two more months because the counteroffensive should be concluded by then, we could calculate the following: 400 casualties/day X 30 days/month X 2 months = 24,000 additional casualties by the end of June. By using mainly conscripts to plug holes in Artemovsk this is (unfortunately and disgustingly) enough to keep the eastern front stable and to secure the back of the counteroffensive.

Wagner

As I said, I would not be entirely surprised if the whole “counteroffensive” thing would be simply aimed at retaking Artemovsk and Soledar. It would also be a huge blow to Russia. In such a scenario Wagner would need to be defeated. Which is not impossible. It would have the following implications:
Defeat/Weakening of Wagner. (I’ll go deeper into that later).
Capture of a huge urban area which is extremely difficult to recapture by the Russians again.
Russia would have to exert huge efforts to recapture these places. This time without Wagner but with regular Russians troops. (In case Wagner would have been defeated or seriously weakened.)
Forced conversion of the SMO into war, which is currently unfavorable for Russia. Note: Wagner IS the SMO. I’ll explain that in a minute.
Major PR and military defeat for Russia. The West could make a lot of capital out of that.
War!

Let me explain my understanding of what Wagner is. Please keep in mind that this is only my analysis and I can be entirely wrong on this:
Wagner is the Russian equivalent of a Cost Center in business administration
Russia is using Wagner to accumulate the best volunteer fighters of Russia for direct assault action. The Russian army cannot yet engage in force-on-force action, let alone direct assault action in an urban environment. These types of fighting are the ones with the biggest casualty rates. I know it, many of my family members served in WW2 and in the Yugoslavian wars in such assault detachments.
Such casualty rates are incompatible with a SMO. First, the Donbass militias did this job. Their casualties, which were very high, were not part of the Russian army. Later, after the incorporation of Donbass into the Russian Federation and consequently their military, Wagner took over this job entirely. Doing the dirty and hard work, taking the casualties and keeping the balance sheet of the Russian army clean. I already criticized this technique months ago. I want to criticize it again.
The Russian army, which is conducting an SMO, has many fewer casualties and direct engagements with the enemy. The SMO is not designed to sustain the level of casualties as the volunteer force “Wagner” is doing. There would be many questions in Russia in such a case.
It is one thing to order people who are conscripted to walk into their guaranteed death, and something else to do that with volunteers who know exactly what they have signed up for. Take, for example, the marines who were storming Ugledar some months ago. They called their governor in the Russian far-east who intervened. Maybe rightfully. Maybe the responsible general was an idiot. But I want only to demonstrate what would happen if the regular Russian troops would sustain casualties of the magnitude of Wagner or the Ukrainians. It would be all across Russia in the news, etc.



Volunteers are volunteers. They know exactly what they are signing up for, and they are highly professional. I assume that Wagner regularly recruit their troops right out of the Russian army and special forces. Maybe even directly out of the SMO forces. If they die, they die on another account/cost-center. And the relatives, if there are any, can’t do anything since these were volunteers.
There are reasons why Evgeny Prigozhin expresses public concerns about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive in connection with Wagner. Let’s just assume for the sake of discussion that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would take place in the Artemovsk/Soledar direction and it would succeed. Let’s further assume that the Ukrainians would manage to take out a huge part of Wagner. Russia would have NO troops left for casualty intensive offensive operations.
Russia would need to declare war and then it could use its whole accumulated and trained army for everything that is needed. I would argue that it would be better to avoid/stop the offensive to avoid a situation where such measures need to be taken.
Keep in mind. Wagner from 2014 to January 2022 is another Wagner than from February 2022 onwards. Currently it is a fully integrated part of the Russian army in command and control. But not in the organization sense. Casualties, financing, and supplies are separated for obvious reasons.
Do I think that such a scenario could/would/will happen? I would rather say no. But who knows. This is the last throw. We should expect anything and everything. Under any circumstance, I see and believe that the Russian general staff, here in this case General Surovikin himself, is being careful to take most of the steam out of the offensive before it even starts; with the air force and the missile forces.
I don’t think the Russians will roll over and play dead. The worst possible position which you can be in right now is in the skin of a Ukrainian soldier earmarked for the offensive. The only question that you currently have is whether you will be badly wounded/maimed, captured (best-case scenario), or in which cruel way you will die. Most will die, since there is no way to safely evacuate all the wounded. I don’t write that with pleasure, being an orthodox Slav. It is disgusting.

Negotiations

Now we have all the people that are constantly advocating for “Sit down and talk peace”. Okay. Snap a finger and there is peace? I want to put it this way à Russia is again in an existential struggle. If it doesn’t manage to drive NATO out of Ukraine, then its very existence will be constantly under threat. If there is one single piece of Ukraine that is not liberated then this will be the seed for a new NATO attempt against Russia. That’s why Russia’s main objective is the full denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.

As long as these objectives are not achieved, Russia is under constant threat of being split up into multiple little statelets like Yugoslavia.
So, these people think that “Sit down and talk peace” will achieve peace?
What are the implications of peace talks now, including a ceasefire?
Between 20,000 – 30,000 Russians (Russian Army + Donbass Militia + Wagner) died for a small strip of land in east and south Ukraine.
The threat against Russia would still exist. In fact, it would be an even bigger threat because Ukraine would join NATO right after the conclusion of hostilities. It doesn’t matter what treaties Ukraine would sign. For example, to NOT join NATO. Ukraine would join NATO the next day.
Negotiations were possible until the end of Phase 1. After all that has been invested in blood, equipment, and political/economical capital, there is no way back. Only the full achievement of all goals is a real option. President Putin invested Russia’s whole nation in the building of a multipolar world order. Anything negotiated now in Ukraine would be the end of this project and Russia. It would mean that the West is still able to dictate outcomes and terms.



And for what should Ukraine negotiate exactly?
The implementation of the draft treaty for European security?
NATO policy?
Denazification?
Demilitarization?
With which authority? Ukraine can’t decide a thing about itself. How should they negotiate about European and NATO security?
So, negotiating such goals WITH Ukraine is pure bullshit. I don’t get how someone can call for the Ukrainians to sit down and “talk peace”. I really have a hard time understanding that, considering the abovementioned facts.
Negotiating with the West? The slaughter between Ukrainians and Russians is a jackpot for the West. They will do everything they can to ensure that as many troops as possible on both sides die. Further Ukrainian mobilizations? Great! Further Russian mobilizations? Even greater. More blood. More scorched earth. As long as it is sustainable with Western money and equipment, it WILL BE sustained.
With whom should Russia negotiate?
Russia: “Listen, NATO, if you don’t withdraw to your borders of 1998, we will destroy the whole of Ukraine and kill most of its male population”. NATO: “HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, go ahead bro”.

Further developments

Remember my article about Russian and Soviet military doctrine?
After the Ukrainian offensive we can expect to see Russia on the move.
There is only one outcome possible. The full defeat of Ukraine and its full surrender, denazification and demilitarization. This is not wishful thinking; it is my professional analysis and I have enumerated countless arguments for it in almost all of my articles.
I mentioned in one of my articles the impending end of the professional Ukrainian army (not the end of the war). This will be evident after the Ukrainian offensive.

ANÁLISIS DE GUERRA

Teatro de Operaciones Militares (TOM) Día 445, 14/05/2023. Vitali Ivánovich Popkov (Moscú, RSFS de Rusia, 1 de mayo de 1922 – ibid., Rusia, 6 de febrero de 2010) fue uno de los principales ases de la aviación soviético que combatió durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Durante la guerra se le acreditó con alrededor de cuarenta victorias aéreas por las cuales recibió dos veces el título de Héroe de la Unión Soviética. Después de la guerra permaneció en el ejército y alcanzó el grado de teniente general, retirándose en 1989. Murió en 2010 a la edad de 87 años.

Vitali Ivánovich Popkov (Moscú, RSFS de Rusia, 1 de mayo de 1922 – ibid., Rusia, 6 de febrero de 2010) fue uno de los principales ases de la aviación soviético que combatió durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Durante la guerra se le acreditó con alrededor de cuarenta victorias aéreas por las cuales recibió dos veces el título de Héroe de la Unión Soviética. Después de la guerra permaneció en el ejército y alcanzó el grado de teniente general, retirándose en 1989. Murió en 2010 a la edad de 87 años.

Emmanuel Macron ha hecho una declaración bastante interesante, al parecer recibirá a Zelensky esta noche. Dijo: "Seamos factuales, Rusia no debe ganar esta guerra militarmente" (sic).

Pues bien, seamos factuales, Rusia no sólo irá contra la voluntad maniatada por la cobardía de lo países de la OTAN, de participar directamente en el conflicto con tropas regulares nacionales, amén de sus asesores y mercenarios, rusia no sólo ganará la guerra, sino que gran parte de lo que fue la ucrania ingresará a la Federación rusa. Mientras que occidente, ingresa cada día más, en sus eternos problemas de déficit fiscal, deuda, pobreza y desestabilización.

Todos los regímenes europeos están inmersos en una negación abyecta de la realidad, a pesar que TODOS sus estados mayores y organismos de inteligencia les dicen, aquello está perdido. Pero no sólo eso, ustedes sufrirán la derrotado económica y política, la económica ya la vemos, desde ahora, un nuevo paradigma, los rucos no son los del valor agregado, sino la materia prima, el trasvasije dentro del que ustedes, despreciablemente le llamaban el "tercer mundo y bien, los países en vías de desarrollo, o peor aún, los emergentes", se hace con naturalidad, esa transferencia de tecnología se hará en detrimento de los que se hicieron pasar como "comuindad internacional", EEUU, Europa, japón, y algunos vasallos más.

Todas las Universidades rusas estarán abiertas, como lo han estado siempre, para estudiantes de los países "pobres", Bolivia lo era, hasta que descubrieron que eran más ricos que sus vecinos o cualquier monarquía corrupta de Europa que tiene 5 castillos, 3 bancos, y unas cuantas lavanderías, como Luxemburgo. País con el mayor ingreso per cápita del mundo, y no producen ni un fósforo.

¿Quién les dijo a ustedes que aunque reunieran a toda la OTAN en Ucrania ganarían la guerra contra Rusia?, solo el deseo. El deseo, Sr. Macron, no es un acto racional, es emotivo. Ustedes son unos manipuladores sucios, abyectos y criminales, cuando vean que los resultados en el terreno militar no fueron los esperados, comenzarán a empujar a los ucranianos para que acepten cualquier cosa, bajo amanezas de no darles nada, hasta allí llegará el cuento ese "apoyaremos hasta cuando sea necesario", pero no le explicaron a los ucranianos que ese necesario, está relacionadado a las neesidades de ustedes, no de los ucranianos.

Han embarcado ese país, y ese país lo aceptó gustoso, por dos razones, ingresarlos a la OTAN, EEUU deciden, e ingresarlo a la Unión Europea, parte de Europa decide. Cuando los EEUU vean que lo que va a quedar de ucrania, es la parte que menos les interesa, y no es la cultura lo que les interesa a los yankis, sino que el rico Donbass minero, el sur marítimo, y las grandes zonas agrícolas. Todo eso, estará en manos rusas.

ustedes se verán obligados a aceptar, lo que no quisieron aceptar en el 2014, y miran que la tenían fácil, aceptar la autonomía del Donbass y reconcer que crimea siempre ha sido rusa, algo que ustedes saben perfectamente.

Pero no, el mantra de las fronteras reconocidas internacionalmente en 1991, cuando todo aquello fue un artificio.En vez de pensar con el cerebro y civilizadamente, documentarse y en función de ellos, negociar lo que podía ser negociable, ¿o ninguno de ustedes sabe que Crimea era, aún en el tiempo de Maidan, y mucho entes, una república autónoma? ¿por qué?, porque no fue hasta 1956 que Nikita Kruschev se la autoregaló (era de origen ucraniano) ¿Cómo Rusia va a aceptar a un país que se declara enemigo de ella, meta a los nazis en Sebastopol, Crimea, Odessa, donde hay tantos héroes soviéticos que lucharon allí contra el nazismo alemán? ¿o es que ustedes están todos locos?.

¿Que ha sido este deambular de Zelensky por los EEUU, Gran Bretaña, Bélgica, Francia, Finlandia, Holanda, Italia, vaticano, Alemania y de nuevo Francia, para qué?

Para obtener más dinero, más armas, ¿y para qué?, para mantener la ilusión de que puede cambiar el curso de la guerra. Es posible que ustedes no le hayan puesto atención, pero les puedo decir que hasta el día de hoy, 15 meses después del inicio de la hostilidades, jamás Ucrania y sus Fuerzas Armadas, han realizado una acción militar, digna de ese nombre. Cuando la ofensiva de septiembre del año pasado en Kharkiv, los rusos se retiraron, luego en noviembre de Kherson, los rusos se retiraron, todo lo demás, los 127.000 km2 que Rusia dispone hoy de lo que fue Ucrania, les recuerdo, es un 20% del territorio de Ucrania (603.000 km2, hoy, 476.000 km2), pienso que los rusos asegurarán otro 200.000 y allí verán. Para que no saquen cuentas, son Mykolaiv, Odessa, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv y Kiev. y obviamente, lo que queda de Donetsk.

Después de todo, yo les digo una sola cosa, en relación el bocazas de macron ¿cómo pretende Francia, un país, con 58 cañones 155mm CAESAR, tenía 76, y le enviaron 18 a los ucranianos y aún no los reponen, hacerle la guerra a Rusia que tiene 26.520 piezas de artillería?, eres un tremendo traga baguette.

Bien, pasemos a la noticias de hoy.

El Ejército ruso informa de intentos "masivos" de Kiev de romper sus defensas en Bajmut. El Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia informó este domingo de intentos "masivos" de las fuerzas armadas de Kiev de romper las líneas de defensa rusas en torno a la ciudad oriental ucraniana de Bajmut a lo largo de la jornada anterior.

"Al norte y al sur de Artiómovsk (nombre ruso de Bajmut) el enemigo efectuó intentos masivos de romper las defensas de nuestras tropas", afirmó el portavoz castrense Ígor Konashénkov en su parte diario. Según Konashénkov, todos los ataques de las tropas de Kiev "fueron repelidos".

"No se permitió la ruptura de las líneas defensivas de las tropas rusas", aseguró. Según Moscú, Ucrania sufrió en el eje Soledar-Bajmut más de 400 bajas en un día, entre muertos y heridos.

Hoy aparece un artículo en el New York Times, todos hemos visto como la prensa pacotillera de occidente, prácticamente hace a las tropas ucranianas entrando a Moscú, bueno, es lo que quisieran, pues este relato no dice lo mismo:

Tanques rusos en Bakhmut aterrorizan a soldados ucranianos - New York Times. “Las tropas rusas están asaltando furiosamente la ciudad. El fuego de artillería, los cohetes y los ataques aéreos no se detienen ni un minuto. Cada metro de la ciudad está ahora bajo fuego. Los tanques rusos están causando pesadillas”, dice un miembro ucraniano.

Zelenski: "Creo que estamos casi listos para la victoria". El presidente ucraniano, Volodimir Zelenski, se mostró hoy convencido de que su país está "casi listo" para la victoria al referirse también a la prevista contraofensiva que podrá comenzar, agregó, tras un par de visitas más a socios occidentales en busca de apoyo militar.

"Estamos motivados y creo que estamos casi preparados para la victoria", dijo Zelenski durante una rueda de prensa conjunta con el canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz. A le pregunta de si hay países que podrían retirar su apoyo a Ucrania, el presidente afirmó que "existe el riesgo" si la contraofensiva "no tiene suficiente éxito", al tiempo que subrayó: Todos creemos en una victoria y no pensamos en otras cosas. Creemos que la victoria será nuestra".

"...Creo que estamos casi listos para la victoria...", qué humilde, pensé que diría que estaban listos para ir a combatir, pero no, la victoria ya. Ahora bien, el termino que usa es "creer", las creencias son relativas y muy asociadas a algo subjetivo como las "creencias religiosas", pues yo no creo nada, pero sí tengo la certeza, de que Ucrania perderá esta guerra de manera estrepitosa, y que por la misma, la OTAN y la Unión Europea, también.

Zelensky, en una conferencia de prensa conjunta con Scholz, dijo que el objetivo de la contraofensiva ucraniana no es un ataque al territorio ruso, sino la liberación de los territorios ucranianos incautados por Rusia.

Scholz dijo que Alemania apoyará a Ucrania durante el tiempo que sea necesario. "Sin la retirada de las tropas rusas, no se hablará de paz", dijo el canciller alemán.

A mi me parece que las cosas están claras. Alemania lo ha dicho siempre, Rusia debe retirarse, hasta de Crimea. Bueno, los rusos piensan diferente, y no só no se retirarán, sino que conquistarán otros territorios, que han sido históricamente rusos, como Odessa, por ejemplo.

Zelenski viaja a Berlín para preparar su contraofensiva. El presidente de Ucrania, Volodimir Zelenski, llegó este sábado por la noche a Berlín. Se trata de su primera visita a Alemania desde el inicio de la guerra en Ucrania y se produce justo después de que el país germano anunciara que quiere entregarle nuevas armas por valor de 2.700 millones de euros.

El viaje se produce en medio de los preparativos para una nueva ofensiva del ejército ucraniano, en la que tanto Kiev como Moscú afirman haber cosechado éxitos en Bajmut y sus alrededores. Por razones de seguridad no se han revelado los motivos de la visita de Zelenski a Berlín, pero los medios alemanes aseguran que el presidente ucraniano tiene previsto reunirse esta mañana con el Canciller Olaf Scholz y el Jefe de Estado, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

¿Razones de seguridad para no saber que lo que quiere son armas y dinero?, qué ilusos. Zelenski viaja a Berlín para preparar su contraofensiva. Pensé que se haría en Kiev, pero bueno. La última vez que prepararon una ofensiva en Berlín contra los rusos, mejor ni les cuento.

Rusia anuncia la muerte de dos de sus comandantes militares en Bajmut. En un inusual anuncio de sus pérdidas en el campo de batalla, el ministerio de Defensa ruso dijo en un comunicado que los comandantes Viacheslav Makarov y Yevgueni Brovko murieron "heroicamente". De nuevo las comillas de la prensa occidental, que no están en el comunicado del Ministerio de Defensa. No es inusual, el año pasado un General cayó cerca de Popasna, y lo anunciaron de inmediato, lo que pasa es que Rusia no tiene la cantidad de bajas que tiene Ucrania, y que por cierto, solo lo anuncian en los funerales, pero la cantidad de Coroneles, Mayores, jefes de unidades, comandantes, etc, han sido demasiadas.

El objetivo de Zelenski es movilizar a sus partidarios europeos en un momento en el que su ejército prepara una contraofensiva en el este del país, según AFP.

¿Movilizar a sus partidarios?, es que acaso estos estaban desmovilizados, hemos aprendido algo nuevo.

Zelensky planeó apoderarse de las ciudades fronterizas rusas y atacar en profundidad del territorio ruso para obtener una carta ganadora en futuras negociaciones con Rusia.

Según The Washington Post, que cita documentos de inteligencia estadounidenses filtrados, el presidente de Ucrania "a puerta cerrada", además de atacar territorio ruso, también planeó socavar el oleoducto Druzhba, a través del cual se suministra petróleo desde Rusia a Hungría.

"El propósito de tales medidas es dar a Kiev influencia en las negociaciones con Moscú", indican los documentos.

Zelenski pide al jefe de gobierno alemán que apoye la entrega de aviones de combate. Zelenski ha pedido este domingo en Berlín a Olaf Scholz que apoye los esfuerzos de varios aliados de Kiev en la entrega de aviones de combate para repeler la invasión rusa.

"Actualmente estamos trabajando en la creación de una coalición de aviones de combate", indicó Zelenski. "También pediré a Alemania que apoye a Ucrania en esta coalición", añadió en una rueda de prensa junto a Scholz, que hasta el momento se negó a entregar directamente aviones a Kiev.

Rusia atacó depósitos de armas occidentales en Ternopil y Petropavlivka. El ministerio de Defensa de Rusia afirmó este domingo que atacó en Ternopil (oeste) y Petropavlivka (centro-este), en Ucrania, sitios que albergaban armas occidentales entregadas a Kiev para repeler la ofensiva de Moscú.

Las fuerzas armadas rusas "atacaron con armas aéreas y marítimas de alta precisión de largo alcance puntos de despliegue de las fuerzas armadas ucranianas y lugares de almacenamiento de municiones, armas y equipos militares recibidos de los países occidentales", declaró el ministerio de Defensa en un comunicado.

Ucrania desmiente, dice que era una fábrica de chocolates, que el humo amarillo, era chocolate con limón, el marrón, chocolate normal, el negro, chocolate negro (mínimo 72%), y el humo blanco, chocolate blanco.

El jefe del gobierno alemán promete apoyar a Ucrania "mientras sea necesario". Alemania apoyará a Ucrania todo el tiempo que sea necesario, aseguró el domingo el jefe del gobierno, Olaf Scholz, al recibir al presidente ucraniano, Volodimir Zelenski, en Berlín, por primera vez desde el inicio de la invasión rusa.

"Lo he dicho muchas veces y lo repito hoy: le apoyaremos mientras sea necesario", declaró Scholz y añadió que el apoyo de Alemania a Ucrania, incluido el armamento, ascendía hasta ahora a 17.000 millones de euros (unos 18.500 millones de dólares).

Zelenski apuesta por un plan de paz basado en la posición de Ucrania. El presidente ucraniano Volodimir Zelenski ha dicho este domingo que Ucrania estaba lista para discutir propuestas externas de paz para poner fin a la invasión a gran escala de Rusia, pero que esas propuestas deberían basarse en la posición y el plan de paz de Kiev.

El líder ucraniano ha dicho en una conferencia de prensa conjunta con el canciller alemán Olaf Scholz en Berlín que los ucranianos creían en el éxito de su tan anunciada contraofensiva contra las fuerzas rusas y que estaban listos para el éxito.

Zelenski apuesta por un plan de paz basado en la posición de Ucrania. Me parece correcto, Vladimir Putin apuesta por un plan de paz basado en la posición de Rusia. Al final veremos cual se impone.

Cinco muertos en la región de Jersón al detonar un explosivo abandonado por las fuerzas rusas. Cinco personas perdieron la vida en la región de Jersón, en el sur de Ucrania, al detonar un explosivo abandonado por las fuerzas rusas, informó hoy el jefe de la oficina presidencial ucraniana, Andriy Yermak.

"En la región de Jersón, unos explosivos abandonados por el ejército ruso acabaron con la vida de cinco civiles. La tragedia ocurrió en una empresa agrícola de la aldea de Myroliubivka, en la comunidad de Novovorontsov", escribe en un mensaje en Telegram, citado por Ukrainska Pravda. "Explotó un proyectil sin detonar", según Yermak, quien precisó que "la víctima más joven tenía 27 años, la mayor 68".

Lean bien el titular de la prensa mercenaria. "...Cinco muertos en la región de Jersón al detonar un explosivo abandonado por las fuerzas rusas...", y luego nos cuenta, que fue un proyectil disparado por rusos, hacia las fuerzas ucranianas, y que no explotó ¿quién debió desactivarlo con sus zapadores? ¿los rusos, que están del otros lado, o los ucranianos que están del lado donde cayó el proyectil?, además, un proyectil lanzado, no es un explosivo abandonado, banda de delincuentes de la información

Este loquito es un pésimo político. Zelenski se reúne con el presidente de Alemania. El presidente de Ucrania, Volodimir Zelenski, se ha reunido este domingo por la mañana con su homólogo alemán, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, en su primera visita a Alemania desde que comenzó la guerra en Ucrania. Le ha recibido en el palacio de Bellevue, según avanzan periodistas de AFP. Después está previsto que se reúna también con el canciller alemán, Olaf Scholz, y más tarde viajará a Aquisgrán para recibir el premio Carlomagno, que recompensa el compromiso con la unificación europea.

"Ya en Berlín", tuiteó Zelenski al llegar a la capital alemana, y agregó: "Armas. Paquete sólido. Defensa aérea, reconstrucción. UE. OTAN. Seguridad".

Clase de Twit, creo que los alemanes van a apreciar cantidad. Quizás en el futuro no muy lejano veamos otro tuit, "Ya en Berlín", Guerasimov.

En el terreno

Aquí está Zala KYB-UAV destruyendo un camión de munición ucraniano. Video

Soldados ucranianos huyendo de su posición después de que fue alcanzada por fuego de artillería "Wagner". Artiomovsk/Bajmut, clase de arrancadera. Video

El ejército ruso lanzó un ataque con munición incendiaria en las áreas de Bakhmut, que están ocupadas por las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania. Video

Este fue otro golpe (anoche), a la logística ucraniana. Fuego furioso en Ternopil. Video

Golpe preciso en Ternopil: instalación industrial destruida. Fotos

Las Fuerzas Armadas de Rusia utilizan obuses D-20 de 152 mm y la defensa antiaérea Strela-10 en su operativo militar en Ucrania. Este armamento se camufla en las profundidades boscosas y puede disparar proyectiles de fragmentación altamente explosivos que pueden llegar a una distancia de hasta 15 kilómetros. El Ejército ruso también empleó drones para ajustar el fuego de artillería. Video

Helicópteros rusos 'Alligator' disparando misiles en el operativo militar. La Fuerza Aérea de Rusia empleó sus helicópteros de combate Ka-52, también conocidos como ‘Alligators’, contra los blindados del Ejército de Ucrania. Video

Se encontraron fragmentos de un misil estadounidense ADM-160 MALD cerca del lugar del ataque en el territorio de la planta PolyPak en Lugansk. Dichos misiles están diseñados para desorganizar temporalmente los sistemas radioelectrónicos del adversario por medio de interferencias y simular el vuelo de un avión de combate o un misil de crucero. El alcance del misil es de 450 kilómetros. Fotos

El momento del impacto en Ternopol. A algunos incluso les gusta. Que haya gente en ese lugar de ucrania, la zona más reaccionaria y derechista, es como mucho. Video

En el Reino Unido, personas desconocidas dañaron deliberadamente el buque de guerra británico HMS Glasgow en construcción. Se cortaron unos sesenta cables diferentes, según el diario Telegraph. Probablemente, los partisanos británicos se vengaron de sus autoridades por suministrar misiles de largo alcance a los nazis ucranianos. Foto

En Alemania, Zelenski recibió el Premio Carlomagno por su contribución a la "unificación de Europa". Además de la jefa de la Comisión Europea, Úrsula von der Leyen, y el primer ministro de Polonia, Mateusz Morawiecki, en la ceremonia también estuvieron los representantes de la "oposición" bielorrusa. Video

Tres vehículos ucranianos destruidos en la carretera que va de Khromovo a Bakhmut. Un vehículo blindado Panthera T, un raro puesto de reconocimiento móvil PRP-3 "Val" y dos BMP-2. Fotos

Foto: Han aparecido nuevos detalles sobre el ataque masivo de ayer a los almacenes en Jmelnitski. Las fuentes de Rybar informan que una cantidad significativa de misiles antiaéreos para los sistemas de defensa aérea de fabricación occidental, incluidos los sistemas de defensa aérea Patriot, se almacenaron en el 649.º depósito de misiles y municiones en la aldea de Grushevitsa. Según el sistema de monitoreo de terremotos del Centro Sismológico Europeo-Mediterráneo a las 04:52 hora de Moscú, se sintieron sacudidas de magnitud 3,4 al noroeste de Jmelnitski.

Este hecho indica que el ataque a los almacenes resultó ser muy efectivo: la detonación secundaria de municiones provocó la actividad sismológica de la corteza terrestre. Obviamente, no todas las reservas estaban en Grushevitsa. Desde la primavera del año pasado, el comando ucraniano ha estado almacenando armas en varios almacenes en todo el país. Pero en las condiciones de las incursiones periódicas de los vehículos aéreos no tripulados y misiles rusos, la pérdida de incluso un lote de misiles antiaéreos afectará las capacidades de defensa aérea de Ucrania.

Rusia no comienza las guerras, las termina. ¿Hoy, está más cerca Rusia de Kiev, o Ucrania e Moscú?, si tienes la respuesta, entonces estamos claros...

[Suetham]

Ucrânia:

Ukraine expects delivery of more than a hundred German drones Vector

The Kiev regime is expecting the delivery of more than a hundred German unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Vector. This is reported by the Telegram channel of Ukrainian intelligence.

According to the agency, Ukrainian intelligence officers will receive more than a hundred Vector drones as part of a contract between the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and the German manufacturing company Quantum-Systems GmbH.

This is already the second batch of Vector drones for the Ukrainian army, funded by the government of the Federal Republic of Germany. In August 2022, Ukraine ordered and received 33 German UAVs of the same model, and they testified to their high efficiency on the battlefield, ”the Ukrainian special services said in a statement.

This drone can reach speeds of up to 72 km/h and stay in the air for up to 120 minutes

The Ukrainian military is increasingly using American AGM-88 anti-radar missiles (hereinafter referred to as PRR) to strike at objects of the Russian Armed Forces.

Our reader, an expert in electronic warfare, based on his experience in performing tasks in the SMO zone, offers several ways to avoid being hit by such means:

"When enemy aircraft take off and aim at us as a target, we have several main ways to protect:

1. The use of aerosols (chaff) in the Gazetchik-E or Understudy complexes. The disadvantage of this method is the determination of the exact time, since the cloud will stay relatively short and the missile will be able to detect the radar signal.

2. Protection of the radar from the RRR by turning the antenna away from the direction to the RRR in order to illuminate the RRR with radiation reflected from a nearby metal mesh screen. The disadvantage is that an anti-radar missile of the AGM-88 HARM type has not only a method of targeting according to the radiation signal, but also according to GPS coordinates, which makes this method useless.

3. As for me, the most effective way is to turn off the radar during the first flight of enemy aircraft. This method gives the crew time to move the radar to a safe place, while not being afraid of targeting on the radiation signal.

[Suetham]

Parte 2:

France will equip several battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with dozens of armored vehicles in the coming weeks, including AMX-10RC light wheeled tanks, the French and Ukrainian presidents said in a joint statement following their meeting at the Elysee Palace, circulated by the French side.

[Suetham]

Rússia:

Attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on the objects of the AFU on the night of May 13-14, 2023

On the night of May 13-14, Russian troops again hit the objects of the AFU throughout Ukraine. For strikes, cruise missiles and UAVs of the Geran family were used.

Ternopil suffered the most: in addition to the defeat of the Ternopil railway repair and mechanical plant, which was almost certainly used to repair Ukrainian military equipment, at least one more explosion thundered in the city.

Local sources published information about explosions in Kyiv and the Sumy region, but we do not have any exact confirmation of whether it was an impact or air defense work.

Closer to midnight, explosions began in Kharkov. Despite the initial statements about the firing of the Russian Armed Forces Armed Forces from S-300 launchers in the mode of fire at ground targets, apparently, they were hit by Iskanders.

According to our sources, the Russian Armed Forces hit a warehouse with equipment in the KhTZ area - increased activity has been observed there over the past couple of months, so this is unlikely to be the last hit target in this area. The fire was put out only by 5 am.

Two other strikes hit unknown objects in the Novobavarsky district of Kharkov and the city of Zolochev.

Around five in the morning, Russian troops launched repeated strikes (including on Ternopil ). In addition, during the night, the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out air strikes with guided bombs on Stanislav and Kizomys in Kherson Oblast.

AFU: By striking at the rear, the Russians seek to reduce the morale and psychological state of Ukrainians before the counteroffensive

These strikes may also affect the ability to replenish reserves, N. Gumenyuk, a spokeswoman for the Yug Operational Command, said.

In addition, the Russian fleet has built up a naval group in the Black Sea and can launch 28 Kalibr missiles daily, she added.

By counteroffensive:

Once again, we believe that the revival of hostilities is not a sign of the counter-offensive itself, but at the moment Ukraine has demonstrated that it has the necessary tools (Storm surface-to-air missiles and AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles) to strike at home airfields frontline aviation. Surely there will be repeated attempts of terrorist attacks against strategists and radar aircraft in their bases. We still assume that a full-fledged counter-offensive will be attempted in June if not mid-June.

In the meantime, test forwarding and testing of new types of weapons are underway. This is very unpleasant and painful, but on the other hand:

forewarned - armed

Colonels Makarov and Brovko were killed during the repulsion of the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Krasnoe region - Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

The dead officers were in the rank of colonels - Makarov commanded the 4th motorized rifle brigade, and Brovko was the commander of the army corps for military-political work.

To the south of the Red DPR, Makarov personally led the battle, in the course of repelling another enemy attack, he was seriously wounded and died during the evacuation. Brovko led the actions of the fighters in another area and died heroically during the repulse of the attack, having received multiple shrapnel wounds.

We sustained the necessary pause after the destruction of our aviation group yesterday in the Bryansk region.

Unfortunately, no official version or at least some kind of statement from the law enforcement agencies was made. The only thing that exists is a duck about the ignition of the engine of one Mi-8 from a TASS source.

Our working version yesterday was an ambush by a fighter squadron based in Mirgorod, Poltava region. The Polish MiGs in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of firing AIM-120 deep into Russian territories.

However, after consulting with War-Turned @voenacher and our undercover sources on the ground, we have changed our minds.

With a probability of 95%, the ambush was carried out with NASAMS air defense systems, whose crew knew the exact corridor along which the Russian aviation group was supposed to fly. Local residents saw six simultaneous launches in the north of the Chernihiv region.

The Air Defense Forces of Ukraine have issued instructions to hunt our pilots along the state border. For this, air defense systems delivered from abroad will be used, thereby testing them in the Ukrainian theater of operations.

In Ukraine, they decided to declare that this is the work of Russian air defense and a crossbow, thereby "whitewashing" Western partners.

We can and do argue that this is not the case.

[Suetham]

Norte/Nordeste/Oeste

[Suetham]

Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro/Kherson

Explosions reported in Sumy and Zaporоzhyе regions.

Belarus:

[knigh7]

@Suetham , vc sabe qual é o canal do Prigozhin no Telegram?

Dizem que o WG não tem canal no Telegram, mas sobre Prigozhin, suponha-se que ele tem um canal oficial pelo que parece e um canal pessoal também:
Oficial: https://t.me/s/concordgroup_official
Pessoal: https://t.me/s/Prigozhin_hat/

Os músicos do WG parece que tbm tem um canal, eu sigo, entretanto não sei se é oficial:
https://t.me/orchestra_w

Um dos grandes problemas sobre as falas do Prigozhin é que elas são passadas para o inglês pelos ucranianos. E eles surfam na contrainformação, inclusive o Kiev Post. Vc conhece algum russo que traduz o que o dono do Wagner fala?

[Suetham]

Dizem que o WG não tem canal no Telegram, mas sobre Prigozhin, suponha-se que ele tem um canal oficial pelo que parece e um canal pessoal também:
Oficial: https://t.me/s/concordgroup_official
Pessoal: https://t.me/s/Prigozhin_hat/

Os músicos do WG parece que tbm tem um canal, eu sigo, entretanto não sei se é oficial:
https://t.me/orchestra_w

Um dos grandes problemas sobre as falas do Prigozhin é que elas são passadas para o inglês pelos ucranianos. E eles surfam na contrainformação, inclusive o Kiev Post. Vc conhece algum russo que traduz o que o dono do Wagner fala?

Isso não chega a ser um problema, haja visto que muitos no Twitter(pró-russo e pró-ucraniano) usam um bot tradutor de vídeos lá pra traduzir o que o Prigozhin fala, além de que, muitos canais de língua russa confirmam o que a maioria desses ucranianos postam com relação aos dizeres de Prigozhin, então não vejo muita contrainformação, pelo menos com relação aos canais no Twitter e Telegram, não sei quanto as mídias oficiais pq eu acompanho mt pouco msm.

Se realmente estivesse ocorrendo contrainformação quando se é legendado do russo para o inglês, os canais russos não cairiam e até alertariam os seus seguidores quanto a isso. O real problema é constatar que o que Prigozhin está dizendo é uma grande psyops ou se realmente há um atrito entre eles lá, eu vejo mais como segunda opção a mais provável.

[knigh7]

Um dos grandes problemas sobre as falas do Prigozhin é que elas são passadas para o inglês pelos ucranianos. E eles surfam na contrainformação, inclusive o Kiev Post. Vc conhece algum russo que traduz o que o dono do Wagner fala?

Isso não chega a ser um problema, haja visto que muitos no Twitter(pró-russo e pró-ucraniano) usam um bot tradutor de vídeos lá pra traduzir o que o Prigozhin fala, além de que, muitos canais de língua russa confirmam o que a maioria desses ucranianos postam com relação aos dizeres de Prigozhin, então não vejo muita contrainformação, pelo menos com relação aos canais no Twitter e Telegram, não sei quanto as mídias oficiais pq eu acompanho mt pouco msm.

Se realmente estivesse ocorrendo contrainformação quando se é legendado do russo para o inglês, os canais russos não cairiam e até alertariam os seus seguidores quanto a isso. O real problema é constatar que o que Prigozhin está dizendo é uma grande psyops ou se realmente há um atrito entre eles lá, eu vejo mais como segunda opção a mais provável.

Interfax e RT reportam as reclamações do Prigozhin. Mas esse nível de agressividade dele, com ofensas não vem aparecendo. Pode até ser que eles tenham passado a filtrar por decisão editorial.

[Suetham]

Isso não chega a ser um problema, haja visto que muitos no Twitter(pró-russo e pró-ucraniano) usam um bot tradutor de vídeos lá pra traduzir o que o Prigozhin fala, além de que, muitos canais de língua russa confirmam o que a maioria desses ucranianos postam com relação aos dizeres de Prigozhin, então não vejo muita contrainformação, pelo menos com relação aos canais no Twitter e Telegram, não sei quanto as mídias oficiais pq eu acompanho mt pouco msm.

Se realmente estivesse ocorrendo contrainformação quando se é legendado do russo para o inglês, os canais russos não cairiam e até alertariam os seus seguidores quanto a isso. O real problema é constatar que o que Prigozhin está dizendo é uma grande psyops ou se realmente há um atrito entre eles lá, eu vejo mais como segunda opção a mais provável.

Interfax e RT reportam as reclamações do Prigozhin. Mas esse nível de agressividade dele, com ofensas não vem aparecendo. Pode até ser que eles tenham passado a filtrar por decisão editorial.

Mas isso seria mt evidente. Controlar publicamente essa discórdia entre Prigozhin e o MoD russo devem ser uma das tarefas dessas mídias, não seria lógico mostrar que existe um grande atrito entre os combatentes na Ucrânia para o afegão médio na Rússia, o problema é que qualquer um acessa essas informações pq muitos usam Telegram. Pode ter certeza que se Prigozhin estivesse direcionando sua artilharia de acusações para a liderança política russa, ele já tinha sido calado ou conhecido a janela de um prédio em Moscou, eu acho que ele só está vivo por causa disso, pq sua artilharia está direcionado sempre ao escalão militar russo, o alvo apitando em Shoigu e Gerasimov.

A coisa anda tão mal lá que até Girkin(outro que sempre acusa Gerasimov e Shoigu de incompetência) quer entrar na política pra ver se muda alguma coisa, eu não tenho a menor dúvida de que foram influenciados principalmente pelo o que Prigozhin anda dizendo por ai. Postei a matéria no tópico Rússia.