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German political scientist Alexander Rahr: if the AFU counteroffensive fails, the West will be the first to talk about peace

In an interview with Vzglyad, the political scientist noted that the West stands on a firm position: it is impossible to resolve the conflict without Russia losing, otherwise "Brussels and Washington will probably start demanding peace talks. Perhaps they will try to appeal to China."

Earlier, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opposed an equal dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, saying that "peace talks that equalize the aggressor and the victim should be rejected."

The Spanish company Arquimea plans to supply Ukraine with new loitering ammunition Q-SLAM-40 . The system is wearable. Carrying is carried out in two backpacks. One is designed for the control system and launcher, the other for ammunition (3 shots). Deployment time - 5 minutes. Weight - 28 kg. The aircraft can operate in the absence of a GPS signal in manned flight mode. It is argued that due to the small size and low noise engine, UAVs are more difficult to detect and recognize even at close range. In addition, the drone has a video system with the ability to transmit images in real time. The platform carries a warhead, which consists of a 40mm grenade and has an electronic fuse.

F-16, Tornado, AMX, MiG-29, Su-25: Countries that donate or plan to donate aircraft to Ukraine and join the fighter coalition:

Poland (MIQ-29)
Slovakia (MIQ-29)
North Macedonia (Su-25)
Netherlands (F-16)
Great Britain (F-16)
Poland (F-16)
Belgium (F-16)
France (F-16)
Denmark (F-16)
Italy (Tornado, AMX)

The epic with the delivery of the F-16 - the American military-industrial complex wants to increase the volume of F-35 orders for friendly countries at the expense of Ukraine

Readovka has repeatedly explained that the discussion and great excitement about the possible delivery of F-16 fighters to Kiev can be caused by any reasons other than direct military necessity. Firstly, Ukraine does not have a sufficient number of airfields suitable for the operation of the F-16. This will prevent vehicles from being dispersed throughout the territory and make them easy targets for Caliber and Daggers while still on the ground. Secondly, in the square, there is no infrastructure for the long-term operation of NATO fighters. Thirdly, the country has a huge shortage of trained pilots. We have discussed all these issues many times before. Let's add another aspect to this.

Before the SMO, Ukraine had up to ten operational-tactical aviation squadrons - these are, respectively, more than 120 attack aircraft, bombers, and fighters. In the current conditions, about a hundred F-16s will be required to compensate for losses and effectively cover the territory as part of air defense tasks, conduct reconnaissance flights, and strike on the land. Naturally, Western countries will not be able to transfer such a quantity to Ukraine at the same time. Add to this the above facts and we will understand that the idea of the F-16 does not look entirely rational in principle.

One of the likely reasons for the constant attempts to sell early modifications of the F-16 to Kiev may be the desire of the American military-industrial complex to increase the portfolio of orders for F-35 fighters, the production of which is many times greater than the aging F-16, and countries that could expand the order for them, many more. And here a long-familiar scheme is turned on: “friends of Ukraine” allocate money (perhaps even in the form of a loan) to send fighter jets to Kiev, and they go to supply new F-35s to countries that will get rid of their old F-16s. Such a multi-pass has already been tested more than once with armored vehicles. Now, perhaps, it's time for aviation.

The Russian Armed Forces carried out an overnight high-precision weaponry strike on the AFU' deployment and training centres, as well as foreign-made ammunition, weapons and equipment depots. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All designated facilities have been hit.
As a result of the strikes, the supply, training and formation of reserves of the AFU to perform tasks in the areas of military operations was disrupted.

On the Kupyansk direction air strikes and artillery fire from the ZVO hit AFU units in Dvurechnaya, Novovolynsk, Kislovka and Berestovoye in Kharkov Region.

The actions of three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups were suppressed near Tymkovka, Sinkovka in Kharkov region, Rozovka in the LNR.

An ammunition depot of the 14th AFU mechanized brigade was destroyed near Tishchenkovka, Kharkov Region.

Up to 65 servicemen, one 122-mm SAU 2S1 Gvozdika and two vehicles were destroyed.

Yesterday, closer to midnight, Ukrainian formations launched seven Mugin-5 UAVs from an improvised airfield in the Black Sea area in the Odessa region.

Only five flew to the Russian peninsula, which were shot down and crashed in the northern part of the Crimea: four at the Mamut station north of Dzhankoy, and one more near the village of Solenoye Ozero (Salt Lake).

Judging by the areas of destruction of drones, the AFU tried to strike at the railway infrastructure connecting Crimea with the Kherson region.

Together with yesterday's sabotage on the section of the railway from Sevastopol to Simferopol, the intentions of Ukrainian units to disrupt logistics in the Kherson and Zaporozhye directions are becoming more obvious.

At the same time, at the same time as the departure from the Odessa region, information was received about the launch of 14 UAVs from the Dolgintsevo airfield near Krivoy Rog in a southerly direction. However, the data was not confirmed.

US adds Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to sanctions list.

"There's nothing left to sanction Joe, what do we do?"
"Just sanction their intelligence service so it looks like we're doing something."

Chronicle of military activity on the territory of Belarus for May 19.

Air activity: Aviation activity was observed at the Machulishchi, Baranovichi and Osovtsy airfields . Intensive flights of helicopters and aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded. Five Mi-24 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force returned from the Osovtsy airfield to the Machulishchi airfield. An An-12BK military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces (RF-90787) flew from the Machulishchi airfield to the Levashovo airfield (RF).

Railway activity: A train with two 122mm guns was spotted at the Ross station. SAU 2S1 "Carnation". May 18 to Zaslonovo station (Vitebsk region, Belarus) from Volnovakha station (Donetsk region, Ukraine) a train with equipment of the RF Armed Forces arrived. On May 17 , an echelon of the Russian Armed Forces departed from Zaslonovo station to Gukovo station (Rostov region, Russian Federation). The information about the departure of an echelon with equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the Polonka station on May 14 , as well as the arrival of two echelons of the Russian Federation at the same station (May 15 and 16) was also confirmed .

Road travel: There were no large convoys with equipment of the RF Armed Forces (10+ units). Single vehicles and small convoys of the RF Armed Forces were seen in Minsk and on certain sections of the M1 highway. Large convoys with equipment of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (10+ units) were also not recorded. Single cars and small columns of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus were seen in Minsk, the village of Machulishchi, the village of Polonka and on separate sections of the P53, P122 highways.

The general conclusion on the current situation, made in the chronicle for May 15, remains relevant. It should be noted that during the new wave of rotation that began on May 12 (from the formation of an echelon with personnel and equipment of the RF Armed Forces at Osipovichi-1 station), at least 3 echelons with personnel and equipment of the RF Armed Forces left the Republic of Belarus. In turn, over the past week, at least 3 echelons with equipment and personnel of the RF Armed Forces also arrived in Belarus. The echelons departed from Osipovichi-1 stations (Osipovichsky training ground), Zaslonovo (Lepelsky training ground) and Polonka (Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground), and arrived at Polonka station (Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground) and Zaslonovo (Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground). "Lepelsky"). It should be noted that in the course of the current wave of rotation of the RF Armed Forces, the parity in the number of exported and imported forces and equipment is still maintained .

Changes in the size of the grouping of the RF Armed Forces in the Republic of Belarus ( from May 12 to May 18 ):

Arrived in Belarus:
- Equipment - at least 114 units (wheeled and tracked).
- Personnel - 620 people .

Departed from RB:
- Equipment - at least 110 units (wheeled and tracked).
- Personnel - 540 people .

The exercises of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus / the Russian Federation in Belarus have been extended until at least May 28. This is evidenced by the schedule of the exercises at the Belarusian training grounds. May 20-21 will be days off for some landfills, while others continue to work without a break: Osipovichsky, Domanovo, Lepelsky, Obuz-Lesnovsky and Gozhsky.

In general, the extension of the exercises at the Belarusian training grounds at the moment looks like this from May 22 to:

227 combined-arms training ground "Borisovsky" (Borisovsky district) until May 27;

Polygon "Gozhsky" 6 ombr. (Grodno region) until May 27;

Polygon "Brest" 38 odshbr. (Brest region) until 27.05;

Polygon "Osipovichsky" 51 abr. (Osipovichi district) until May 26;

212th aviation training ground "Neman" (Novogrudok district) until May 26;

230 combined-arms training ground "Obuz-Lesnovsky" (Baranovichi district) until May 28;

174 training ground of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces "Domanovo" (Ivatsevichi district) until 28.05;

Polygon "Lepelsky" 19 ombr. (Lepelsky district) until May 28;

This is another extension of the exercises at the Belarusian training grounds, which go from April 29, 2022. The total number of extensions was 56 weeks. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are improving their skills, becoming more prepared for defense, but, as before, they are not ready for offensive operations due to the lack of real combat experience.

Regarding the supply of Western aircraft.
Nothing out of the ordinary is happening. The fact that the West will deliver to Ukraine not only Soviet, but also Western aircraft has been obvious since last year. Everything below the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons will be delivered. And for sure, the first Western aircraft will appear in Ukraine before the end of the 2023 summer campaign. The problem of training pilots is solved by attracting mercenaries and, most importantly, in this case, there is no need to soar over the conversion of the MiG-29 and Su-24 to Western missiles like HARM, Zuni or Storm Shadow.

The West cannot retreat, because the retreat will be interpreted by everyone as its defeat in the battle for the future world order, therefore, having failed to achieve an economic victory over Russia, which was originally staked on, the West will continue to pump Ukraine with weapons, despite all its internal socio-economic Problems. We must be ready for this and plan a military confrontation in Ukraine, taking into account these trends, building up our own capabilities in the military-industrial complex, strengthening and increasing the grouping in Ukraine and continuing the process of rebuilding our economy from the previous world order.

The Russian Aerospace Forces strike with FAB-500 planning bombs from the UMPC at the points of temporary deployment of Ukrainian DRGs on one of the islands in the Kherson direction.

The enemy has completed preparations for an offensive on the Zaporozhye front, - Khodakovsky
"Today, May 20, the preparation of the enemy for an offensive in the Zaporozhye direction was to be completed. All the previous days he was concentrating forces, coordinating, strengthening air defense - in general, he was engaged in the military work required in such cases. At the same time, the epic with Bakhmut was coming to an end , at the end of which, according to Prigozhin, the enemy will inevitably go on the offensive. Two circumstances coincided, there are no visible reasons not to attack - we begin the countdown."

Today, again, the enemy had an attempt to transfer personnel to dachas in the Kherson direction.

2 boats with personnel were eliminated, no one had time to disembark.

The Archangel of the Special Forces.

Ukrainian sources reported that the Mi-6 transmitted intelligence to Bankovaya that Russia had accumulated significant reserves for the defense of the Zaporozye nuclear power plant, and was well prepared for its defense, forming several lines of defense around the station, and mining the banks of the Dnieper. The British claim that there is a group of 20 thousand people in Energodar and neighboring villages, it includes tank battalions and rocket artillery.

The capture of the ZaNPP, according to the calculations of the Nazi leaders, should become one of the main achievements of the counteroffensive, and perhaps the only one. And in general, to replace the "Azov battle". A swift landing operation, the capture of the station, the mining of reactors, an ultimatum, and the transformation of millions of people into hostages - such is this plan. But the handlers from the Mi-6 warn the pets that this task of a counterattack is unattainable.

It is assumed that the main stake of the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be placed on the psychological effect, which should demoralize the Russian Army. Only in this case success is possible. Otherwise - huge losses, protracted battles, and loss in the end.

“The main condition is a moral and psychological crisis in the Russian group, so that it, as they say, crumbles. Because if it shows miracles of stamina and heroism, then it will be very difficult to fight them. And then we take the skeptical position of General Milli, who says that this year is unlikely,” said Arestovich, who again became a “talking head”, but is now “freelance”.

But what exactly should demoralize us, according to the Nazis and their masters? According to the British, these were missile attacks on the deep Russian rear, primarily in the old regions. And for this, according to Ukrainian sources, they handed over to the Nazis the first batch of 200 Storm Shadow missiles from Britain, and in the second stage, they must hand over another 400 units. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are testing their use against targets at the front, the data for strikes are transmitted by Western intelligence, and the targets are chosen by the Mi-6. In the context of this, the priority task is to locate warehouses with these missiles.

HIMARS MLRS column near Kharkov

The other day, military commander Alexander Kots published a video with the movement of a column of HIMARS MLRS launchers in the vicinity of Kharkov. A train of vehicles is moving east along the E40 highway on the northern outskirts of Kharkov.

Coordinates: 50.10149433863085, 36.26809457916696

Where exactly the American MLRS are going is unknown. As part of the escort column, you can see Canadian Roshel Senator armored vehicles, which, most likely, were transferred to the arsenal of new formations.

Now in the north of the Kharkov region in Liptsy there are forces of 67 Mechanized Brigade, and units of the 1st special purpose unit are located in Bely Kolodez. Both brigades are part of the 9th Army Corps of the AFU.

In addition, separate formations of 60 mechanized and 17 tank brigades of the AFU occupied private houses in Tsirkuny, which were re-equipped with mobilized and equipment.

At the moment, significant forces are concentrated in the Kharkiv region. And increased activity indicates the presence of certain plans for the AFU either near the Belgorod region, or in the Kupiansk and Svatovsky sectors of the front.

About the activity of Ukrainian aviation

Today, the countries of the West actually decided to transfer F-16 fighters to Ukraine as soon as possible. We wrote about the likelihood of such a scenario back in early April, after the start of recruitment of foreign pilots in Poland.

The appearance of the first F-16s should be expected towards the end of the summer, given the published report of the Americans that Ukrainian pilots will be able to undergo a forced training course within four months.

However, the document itself is more like creating a convenient legend than a real characterization of the flight personnel of the AFU. Some of the most experienced crews were destroyed during the SMO, and the enemy Air Force had an acute shortage of personnel.

The statement about the high level of training of Ukrainians will allow the use of foreign pilots under the guise of citizens of Ukraine in the near future.

Fighters will most likely be handed over after the summer campaign of the AFU, the start of which has been postponed several times. At the same time, even now the AFU have a fleet of aircraft to support the offensive.

According to some reports, in recent weeks, more than 50 different aircraft have been observed over the territory of western and central Ukraine, including combat training aircraft, which are based mainly in the west or north of the country.

After the active phase of the fighting, depending on its outcome, it will be clear how soon and in what quantity American fighters will appear in Ukraine.

US announces new military aid package for Ukraine
It will include:
Additional HIMARS missiles.
155mm and 105mm artillery shells.
Javelin anti-tank systems and AT4 grenade launchers.
Laser guided missiles.
bridgelayers.
trucks for transporting heavy weapons.
thermal imagers and much more.

About Zaluzhny Schrödinger

Today, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Zaluzhny finally appeared in public at a video conference on the occasion of Science Day. For a long time there were rumors that Zaluzhny was either killed or seriously wounded. We believe that it could have been covered on May 8 during an attack on the bunker in Mezhirichi with two "Daggers".

And now a video with Zaluzhny appeared on the Web. True, after it there are more questions than answers.

No, we have no doubts about the sincerity of the video: at first we thought it was some kind of processing through neural networks / swap face. Zaluzhny's speech corresponds to the theme, he himself looks haggard, and the smeared background could be an office somewhere on the ZKP. Well, or a hospital ward.

But two questions arise: when was the video recorded and why did Zaluzhny owe his first public appearance to Science Day?

It is very strange that there was no announcement of the event against the background of rumors in the media. The video was centrally uploaded yesterday through the Odessa Telegram channels, and the primary source is the National University "Odessa Law Academy". By the way, the rector of the academy, Sergei Kivalov, has been a good friend of Zaluzhny for many years.

The video was published on their YouTube channel on May 19, but it is strange that against the backdrop of rumors about the death of Zaluzhny, large Ukrainian media did not distribute it, and this was entrusted to local Odessa nets without much scale.

The video gained the greatest popularity thanks to Russian Telegram channels, where it was uploaded via feedback bots.

The reaction of the audience at the event is also strange, as if it were absolutely not interested in what is happening, despite the fact that, in fact, one of the first persons of the non-state Ukraine is speaking.

The United States gave the go-ahead to the AFU to strike Crimea, "We said that we would not allow Ukraine to use American and Western weapons to strike Russia. And we believe that Crimea is Ukraine," said Jake Sullivan, assistant to the US President for National Security.

"Russia has been stocking up long-range missiles for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukraine's public estimate of Russian missile production is now 60 Kh-101s+Kalibrs per month, plus 5 Iskanders and 2 Khinzals.

They had previously estimated Kh-35 production at 40/month. And no reports of Russia firing Kh-35s since last November, which if production was continued at that rate would mean that Russia is sitting on a pile of more than 500 of them.

And Russia is surely producing Kh-32s and refurbishing Kh-22s, given how often they've fired them. So Russian missile production is easily more than 100/month now, with hundreds stocked up." - TNG5

Regarding Reports of the AFU Escape in Chasov Yar during the Day - That's Wrong

Today, the enemy, despite the loss of #Artyomovsk, continued to hammer on the flanks of our group. To the north of #Khromovo, the enemy was able to push the units of the 1307th Motorized Rifle Regiment (the mobilized #Omsk people are fighting there), but after the approach of the Wagner reinforcements, the position was returned to our control.

About Storm Shadow attacks on Mariupol and Berdyansk

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to strike at the rear of Russian new territories with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Over the past two days, objects on the territory of the airfields of Mariupol and Berdyansk have been hit by fire.

The AFU have been tasked with thinning out Russian aviation, hence the choice of targets. In the cities located on the coast of the Sea of Azov, the objects of the Russian Aerospace Forces became targets. Yes, the enemy did not succeed in inflicting an effective fire defeat - in the same Berdyansk in the dining room at the time of the impact, the mass meal had already ended ..

But this speaks, first of all, of the approach: the curators (the consumption of Storm Shadow on targets is under strict control by the British) set out to reduce the flight capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. If we take into account the data on the current number of aircraft in the Air Force and the rapid delivery of Western aircraft, then we can conclude that one of the goals of the AFU will be to gain air supremacy this year.

It is possible and necessary to defend against Storm Shadow: we cannot say with certainty how well Russian air defense systems cope with British cruise missiles. On the other hand, we know that dispersing equipment and moving headquarters and command posts to reserve positions in non-obvious places are the best precautions.

Military Expert Boris Rozhin on the Situation in the Artyomovsk Sector at 15:45 Moscow Time on 21 May 2023

1. By 21 May, the territory of #Artyomovsk has been completely liberated. The legal renaming of the city in accordance with Pushilin's decree after Ukrainian renaming in May 2014 came into force. Since 20 May, it's the Russian city of #Artyomovsk - de jure and de facto.
The cleaning of the western city suburbs continues.
There will be a serious process of mine clearance after the AFU is driven away from the western outskirts, because now the enemy continues to shell our positions in the city with artillery and mortars.
There is a lot of dirty work to be done related to the cleaning of corpses, including from under the ruins of high-rise buildings. There will be a lot.

2. The Fights in the #Artyomovsk Sector do not stop. The retreating AFU units are trying to hold on in the area of the localities of #Khromovo and #Krasnoye.
#Khromovo is not being directly stormed yet, but is being covered with artillery. The enemy's position there is difficult, and as our troops consolidate on the western outskirts of the city, the situation for the remnants of the AFU forces in #Khromovo will worsen even more.
It is more difficult with #Krasnoye. The enemy has a fairly serious fortified area there, which is reinforced by those forces that were able to retreat from #Artyomovsk.
The withdrawal to #Kleshchiyevka removed the half-grip from #Krasnoye, which will somewhat complicate the subsequent operations of the RF Armed Forces to liberate #Krasnoye.

3. The Roads to #Artyomovsk through Chasov Yar and #Khromovo have lost their former significance. Almost all the bridges on them have been destroyed.
Today, the RF Armed Forces destroyed the bridge at #Krasnoye. Dozens of skeletons of destroyed wheeled and tracked vehicles of the AFU are still standing on roads and fields to the west of #Artyomovsk.
Concentrations of enemy forces in #Konstantinovka, Chasov Yara and #Kramatorsk continue to be subjected to rocket and bomb attacks. It can be expected that soon the artillery impact in the direction of Chasov Yar and #Konstantinovka will increase.

4. Information about the Withdrawal of the enemy from #Bogdanovka, #Stupochki, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, etc. to the Ray-Aleksandrovka - Chasov Yar line is not correct.
At best, it could be about the passage through these settlements of the remnants of the enemy forces from #Artyomovsk, which were allocated for rest and replenishment. The enemy intends to defend these settlements. In the meantime, he has not given up hope of achieving something more in his counterattacks to the northwest and southwest of #Artyomovsk.
It is possible that attempts will still be made to capture Sacco and Vanzetti, #Kurdyumovka, #Kleshchiyevka, in order to somehow justify the large costs of the "counteroffensive" near #Artyomovsk, which has not yet even led to the capture of one rundown village against the background of the loss of one of the key cities of #Donbass.

5. The Enemy has not yet fully used up operational reserves, but strategic reserves that were intended for offensives in the #Svatovo and #Zaporozhye directions have not been put into action here, and we will see them again in the coming months. Nevertheless, the Artyomovsk Group of the AFU (initially up to 80,000 bayonets) suffered huge losses and could not hold the city, which should not have been taken.

6. At the End of the Month, a rotation will take place in #Artyomovsk. The RF Armed Forces will replace the Wagner PMC, which departs to the rear for rest and replenishment after the successful operation to liberate #Artyomovsk.
I am sure that if the hardware conflicts between Prigozhin and the leadership of the Ministry of Defense do not interfere, we will again see Wagner at one of the key sites of its own, where experience and skill will be required.

And the rhetoric of the AFU about Bakhmut is explained by purely practical considerations: there are fierce battles on the flanks. Assault detachments of PMCs inflict fire damage on the subdivisions of the Armed Forces of AFU located on the outskirts.

Ukrainian formations continue to suffer losses, and the easiest way for the official authorities to maintain the appearance of the “Battle for Bakhmut”, and not admit that Ukrainian formations are now rolling on Russian defensive lines.

Prigozhin said that the Wagner PMC would not return to assault operations before the end of June. The units will now be put on rest for at least a month.

Fully deserved!

Western Group's 6th Army artillery strikes and destroys large storage site for AFU ammunition and equipment

The Situation on the Islands of the #Dnieper River at the #Dnieper Estuary

1. The Islands (sandbanks, driftwood, etc.) are under the control of units of the RF Armed Forces.

2. The Enemy is constantly trying to show the presence (landing of SRGs, photos, videos), which is accompanied by information stuffing on the Internet under the slogan - "This island is under the control of the AFU!"

3. Such Attempts take place for a very short time, since the planned artillery targets were assigned a long time ago and fire damage is inflicted on the identified enemy.

4. Irretrievable and sanitary losses of the enemy are very high, but no one wanders through the swamps, reeds and swamps to count corpses. No one will be AFU.

5. Units of the RF Armed Forces are constantly monitoring the actions of the enemy, for some time there has been a fairly successful use of air bombs with UMPC modules by aviation.

(c) according to information from the source in the direction

In the Kherson direction, artillery fire, air strikes and active actions by units of the Dnepr group hit AFU units.

In addition, an ammunition depot of the 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade was destroyed near the village of Stanislav in Kherson Region.

Up to 15 servicemen, one 2S3 Acacia 152-mm SAU and six vehicles were destroyed.

Operational-tactical and army aviation and artillery of groups of troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit 103 AFU artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 134 areas during the day.

S-300 surface-to-air missile systems destroyed near the village of Zheltoye, DPR.

The command post of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade is hit near the village of Poltavka, Zaporozhye Region.
Air defence assets shot down 9 unmanned aerial vehicles and intercepted 15 HIMARS, Uragan and Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles near Lozovoye, Terny, Vodyanoye, Novoandreyevka of the DPR, Chervona Dibrova of the LPR and Energodar of the Zaporozhye region.