Fórum Defesa Brasil

Goldfinger escreveu: Qui Abr 13, 2023 9:33 am O maior risco de segurança para qualquer organização militar é um nerd solitário com acesso a informações classificadas e uma conta no Discord ou fórum do War Thunder

gabriel219 escreveu: Qui Abr 13, 2023 1:25 pm

Goldfinger escreveu: Qui Abr 13, 2023 9:33 am O maior risco de segurança para qualquer organização militar é um nerd solitário com acesso a informações classificadas e uma conta no Discord ou fórum do War Thunder

Duvido muito que tenha sido ele que conseguiu a intel. Alguém de dentro dos órgãos da OTAN achou um Nerd num discord e repassou a ele os documentos, pode ter certeza.

knigh7 escreveu: Sex Abr 14, 2023 5:47 pm

knigh7 escreveu: Sex Abr 14, 2023 6:04 pm 41 mil? Eu não fiquei surpreso. Está dentro da margem de um dos relatórios dos EUA (mortos em ação entre 35 e 43 mil).

knigh7 escreveu: Dom Abr 09, 2023 1:29 pm

Suetham escreveu: Dom Abr 09, 2023 12:51 pm
Não é atoa que teve expurgo após a invasão, mas algo pouco falado é a autossabotagem das agências de inteligência da Rússia, algo que definitivamente deve ter sido a causa principal dos expurgos.

Segundo uma reportagem do Financial Times em meados do ano passado foram cerca de 200 agentes de inteligência da Rússia presos.

O Washington Post noticiou 6 meses depois do início do conflito que a CIA teve acesso aos planos de invasão. Isso permitiu que a Ucrânia dirigisse tropas para a região do aeroporto de Hostomel aonde 2 divisões aerotransportadas (a 76ª e a 98ª) iriam desembarcar. Desembarcaram parcialmente e foram aniquiladas Foi este o motivo que o plano de tomada de Kiev fracassou.

gabriel219 escreveu: Sex Abr 14, 2023 7:54 pm

knigh7 escreveu: Sex Abr 14, 2023 6:04 pm 41 mil? Eu não fiquei surpreso. Está dentro da margem de um dos relatórios dos EUA (mortos em ação entre 35 e 43 mil).

Não 41 mil, mas estimativas como 179 mil ou 184 mil, como a AFU afirma.

Ukraine’s Allies Fear War Breakthrough May Not Come Before Next Year

That fueled hopes its forces might be able to make further breakthroughs this year that would tip the momentum of the war in Ukraine’s favor. Now, Kyiv’s allies are reining in their expectations and contemplating the need for intense fighting well into 2024, according to European officials involved in efforts to support Ukraine’s military.
...
Instead, a more realistic target is now seen as a 30 km (20 mile) or so advance that would put Ukraine’s most capable artillery within range of Russian supply lines and create conditions for a deeper push in 2024, one of the officials said. Allies need to work now to enhance their production capacity and the support that will be needed to sustain those efforts, the official added.

A intensidade da atividade das aeronaves de reconhecimento da OTAN e da Suécia ao longo das fronteiras da Bielorrússia, Ucrânia, Crimeia, fronteiras ocidentais da Rússia no período de 20 de janeiro a 20 de março deste ano. no contexto de uma operação militar especial das Forças Armadas de RF. As principais áreas de concentração de tropas russas e ucranianas.

Destruction of hangars with armored vehicles of the AFU in Orekhovo

Today, between midnight and 4 am, the Russian Armed Forces delivered two strikes on the area of the plant for the production of agricultural machinery in Orekhovo.

Several T-72 tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, as well as six KamAZ trucks and other vehicles were stored in hangars on the territory of the SPD Petrov enterprise. Artillerymen of the 291st motorized rifle regiment and 291st artillery brigades fired more than 40 shells from the 152-mm Msta-S howitzer and the Giacint-B cannon.

The second wave of Russian troops covered the units of the AFU, who arrived at the place to clear the rubble and help the victims. Two packages of 122-mm BM-21 Grad MLRS shells were fired at them.

Coordinates:
– Hangar with tanks: 47,5618603, 35,7637208
– Hangar with BMP: 47.561853,35.762042

As a result of the raid, at least four tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, five arrived armored fighting vehicles, several KamAZ trucks and one pickup truck were destroyed. The secondary detonation hit the nearby buildings where the units of the Armed Forces of AFU were located. According to preliminary data, the loss of the enemy in manpower amounted to several dozen people.

At the same time, SPD Petrov is not the only building that came under fire: the Russian Armed Forces also hit buildings on the territory of the bakery, 500 meters from the plant. This was confirmed by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, briefly reporting on the strike on the administrative facility of Orekhov.

Coordinates: 47.561921,35.771545

By the way, this is not the first time that Ukrainian formations have used such civilian infrastructure facilities. In particular, the day before yesterday the Russian Armed Forces destroyed hangars with weapons in Gulyaipole and Orekhovo.

Timely detection and defeat of such targets is a priority task of the Russian Armed Forces on the eve of the offensive of the AFU. Effective strikes against such targets do have a significant effect on the enemy's combat capabilities in the Zaporizhia direcion.

Destruction of the hangar with MLRS HIMARS in Orekhovo

Today at 17.30 artillery units of the 58th Army of the Russian Armed Forces attacked the hangars on the territory of the Orekhovskoye elevator near the railway station in Orekhovo in the Zaporizhia region.

In warehouses located closer to the football field, there were two HIMARS MLRS launchers, one M777 155-mm towed howitzer, several unidentified armored vehicles and artillery ammunition.

As a result of the impact with a package of 300-mm Smerch multiple rocket launchers and 20 shells of the 152-mm towed gun "Hyacinth", the hangars for storing weapons and equipment were completely destroyed, and the glow from the detonation was visible for many kilometers from Orekhovo.

With a high degree of probability, weapons and military equipment were transferred to Orekhov in preparation for the offensive to provide fire support for ground forces during the assault on Russian positions, and their loss will significantly affect the combat capabilities of the AFU in the Zaporizhia region.

Rybar's team will focus only on a few important points, in our opinion.

How true is this data?

It's no secret that over the past few months, Western countries have been preparing Ukrainian formations for an offensive. On the basis of the structure of the combined armed forces of NATO, two army corps were formed as part of the AFU, which included, among other things, the brigades indicated in the documents.

If you look at the dates of the preliminary completion of the preparation of new formations and the transfer of weapons and military equipment, we can conclude that the information as of the end of February was not far from reality. Getting this information in the public domain is not such a big problem: for example, we wrote about this back in early February.

However, in reality, the deadlines have changed a long time ago: various difficulties arose somewhere in manpower, somewhere in the supply of equipment and other weapons.

As a result, only 47, 67, 117 and 118 Mechanized Brigade from the list are now fully combat-ready, for the rest, the date of full staffing was postponed to May-June of this year, and the 5th Tank Brigade to December.

So this data is real?

In the leaked lists at the end of February, only nine brigades are being formed, but in fact, more than 20 formations were being trained at various training grounds in Ukraine and in Western countries. And ready for the beginning of April:

IX Corps
–47 Mechanized Bde
–67 Mechanized Bde
–3 Assault Bde
–1 Brigade of special forces
–4 Tank Brigade

X Corps
–115 Mechanized Bde
–116 Mechanized Bde
–117 Mechanized Bde
–118 Mechanized Bde

The 21st, 22nd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU and the 77th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces were equipped. At the moment, the Armed Forces of AFU in the state have 12 combat-ready formations (to one degree or another), which are quite realistic to use in the spring-summer campaign.

For what purpose could the documents be published?

Other "leaked" documents dealt with obvious things, for example, the fact that the United States is listening to the leadership of South Korea.

And miraculously, just a couple of weeks before the large-scale counteroffensive of the AFU , such convenient TOP SECRET files appeared on the Web. It all looks like a controlled leak and a massive disinformation campaign.

This is also confirmed by the large-scale information support from the media giants The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, CNN and others who are trying to outdo each other in an attempt to show how uncombat-ready the AFU are and in every possible way encourage the Russian military-political leadership to make a mistake. Public demonstration of the southern regions as the main attack direction (however obvious it may be) can be a red herring .

The offensive may even begin somewhere in the Belgorod or Bryansk region. In the Kharkiv region, near the border with the Russian Federation, a multi-thousand grouping of the AFU is noted - including a unit of 67 Mechanized Brigade .

At the same time, the AFU truly had and still have problems at the preparation stage, and in some brigades they are quite significant.

And in case the announced plan to “seize Crimea” fails , allegedly leaking secret information will make it possible to justify the failure against Russia by the inability of the AFU to properly implement the military assistance issued by the West.