Brazil's F-X2: More than just another fighter buy
While lndia’s Medium Multi-role Combat Aircraft competition is usually described as the most important fighter program out there, Brazil's F-X2 fighter buy will have much greater near- term impact. Although India plans to pm-chase as many as 300 new aircraft over the life of the program, the six competing suppliers there know the process will move at glacial speed. Brazil, on the other hand, has run a model procurement so far, hitting each project milestone on time, every time, since the F-X2 process started in June 2008.
Brazil needs a fleet of multi-role fighters to replace its entire combat aircraft force. That includes Mirage 2000Cs, upgraded F-5EMs and upgraded Al-Ms (AMX). The initial batch will be 36 jets, but that number will grow - potentially to 120. Like India, Brazil has placed high emphasis on industrial offset and technological transfer into its own (well-established) aerospace industry. Brazil also shares its three competing suppliers with India. They are Boeing with the F/A-18E/F Super
Hornet, Dassault with the Rafale and Saab with the Gripen NG. Unlike India, Brazil intends to make its decision later this year.
The search for Brazil's new fighter has had some false starts, and today's F-X2 program follows the earlier failed F-X1 nitiative. F-X1 collapsed due to a lack of available funds, but also because many within the Força Aérea Brasileira (FAB, Brazilian Air Force) felt it was a "hijacking" of the project by Dassault and Embraer. Embraer, as the national aerospace champion, will inevitably be at the heart of the industrial workplan. For F-X1, Embraer teamed directly with a French group headed by Dassault, which took a shareholding with the Brazilian company.
Dassault and Embraer selected the Mirage 2000-5BR for F-Xl, but senior officers were unhappy to have the decision ffectively made for them, and the program was finally halted.
Much has changed since then, and last year Brazil published a strategic defense plan that for the first time set our defined objectives for its military and supporting industries. With a healthy economy and a newfound sense of direction, Brazil has been making bold steps in defense acquisition and development. These include the launch of the C-390 military airlifter, the VBTP combat vehicle, attack submarines with plans for nuclear-powered SSNs, new missiles and guided weapons and aircraft upgrades.
The FX-2 contenders submitted their Request for Information responses on July 31, 2008, with Gripen, Rafale and Super Hornet shortlisted. The formal Request for Proposals was issued this year in January and revised in May, and Best and Final
Offer were submitted in June. By any standards, this has been a very speedy process. All of the competitors have praised the FAB for keeping to a sche dule that most thought was impossible.
The French shareholding now sold and new management in place, Embraer is keeping away from F-X2 until the FAB and government makes the down-select decision. However, the company clearly has opinions on what is at stake.
Speaking to Show News at his Sao Jose dos Campos headquarters in April, Embraer's evp for defense and government, Orlando Ferreira Neto, gave a personal view of the three competitors: "Right now there is a very big fence between the F-X2 and Embraer, and we have to be sure we stay on our side of the fence. But looking at the three, first there is the Gripen NG. This is a brand-new development. There is not an NG aircraft yet and it will take a lot of engineering and highly qualified
work to turn the demo aircraft into the NG. So the strength of the Gripen offer is technology transfer. Of course, development has its own risk, but the best training is not in the classroom, it's doing it on the job.
"The Super Hornet is a successful, stable American product that already has huge orders, so the amortization of the NRCs (non-recurring costs) is very attractive. Tech transfer is a big problem because by law each piece requires a yes-or-no decision by Congress on a case-by-case basis. For an air force that wants to be independent, this may be an impediment.
"The French offer is in between. Dassault has not succeeded in selling the Rafale outside its own borders, so it's likely to be a higher-cost aircraft than the Super Hornet. But they can have a more flexible approach to tech transfer. However, both the Rafale and the Hornets are developed platforms, so how do you actually deliver any technology transfer? Balancing all that will be the multimillion question."
Brazil is expected to make its F-X2 in the weeks following the Paris Air Show and to announce it no later than October.
Contract signature is planned for Q2 2010 and the chosen aircraft should enter service in 2014. Brazil will therefore be the first of the independent nations to choose a new combat aircraft in open competition, with clear implications for winners and losers.
There is a tantalizing possibility that Brazil and India could join forces on a common development program. As 50% of the so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group, the two already have close ties. An aerospace industry agreement could include more than fighters, with both nations now working on similar new military transport aircraft.
Another consideration for Brazil is its existing industrial partnership with South Africa. The twO countries are developing
air-to-air missiles together – missiles which South Africa is integrating with its Gripens and which Brazil will surely want
to integration with the F-X2.
Brazil is much more than a client and seems to have little interest in acquiring an off-the-shelf product. It intends to use the F-X2 program to drive the future national aerospace technology base on several fronts. That alone is significant. However, the potential for the F-X2 to influence other nations' air forces and industries could be truly transformational.
Robert Hewson
PARIS 2009
46 June 16,2009
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