Doutrina, Organização, Táticas...:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1534 ... 97056.html
US publication on Soviet doctrine about the employment of artillery on the offense
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1532 ... 88195.html
Another theory thread, prompted by a strange article demonstrating some of the typical cognitive biases of Western analysts
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1545 ... 08416.html
Time to talk about tactics, and specifically about how the Russians have adapted theirs to present the Ukrainian military with an unsolvable tactical dilemma rather than any kind of a fair fight.
This is what smart militaries do.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497 ... 21281.html
I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1099034925255282688
Colonel-General Andrei Serdyukov, said that the VDV is set for a structural shake-up. It will go from 4 divisions and 5 independent brigades to 5 divisions, 4 independent air-assault brigades, an artillery brigade, and other support units.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1543 ... 29536.html
Suvorov and the Soviet Attack Hypothesis
https://pingthread.com/thread/1501606271421722624
Só um adendo com relação ao início do texto, Caballé. Na verdade, o RTM(ou Military Technological Revolution – MTR) soviético de Orgakov(equivalente ao conceito RMA ocidental) foi considerado nos finais dos anos 70, presumivelmente após 1977, quando Orgakov assumiu o Estado-Maior
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521 ... 89665.html
How does Russia make sure the US does not enter the war?
By making the Russian mode of war BORING.
By making the war over Ukraine methodical, grinding, slow, undramatic—and inevitable.
Let me explain.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 09664.html
We often discuss the all important supply lines in the case of Russia, the railways. RU is one of the few countries in the world & the only major power to still field Railway Troops (In NATO, only Italy has a small regiment w 2 railway engineer companies). Given Russia's vast
Exercícios 2017-2021:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1304 ... 63616.html
Kavkaz 2020 Thread: Shoigu said the exercise will run from Sep 21-26 and will "assess the the Southern Military District's ability to ensure military security in Russia's southwest." The main part will take place at the Kapustin Yar and Ashuluk ranges and Black and Caspian Seas.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1438647079337873408
Some initial conclusions from the Zapad 2021 exercise. The most notable difference between Zapad 2021 and Zapad 2017 is that Russia conducted two Yars ICBM launches during Zapad 2017, one at the beginning and end. We didn't publicly see any nuclear weapons used during Zapad 2021.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1174793407333568518
Arguably the most significant experiment at Tsentr 2019 is the brigade-level airmobile test with the VDV's 31st Independent Air Assault Brigade equipped with 2 Mi-8 squadrons, Mi-26, and attack helicopters (likely Mi-24/35)
https://pingthread.com/thread/1420124689247113221
Russian Eastern Military District motorized rifle units will take part in a joint exercise with China in August in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1436003042017660928
The Zapad 2021 operational-strategic exercise has begun in Russia and Belarus with the opening ceremony at the Mulino training area in Nizhny Novgorod (one of the primary ranges for the exercise). The last Zapad exercise occurred in 2017
Geopolítica:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498 ... 62592.html
Small compilation of these warnings, from Kissinger to Mearsheimer.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510 ... 58532.html
What's really behind conflict in Ukraine - a thread
The U.S. is engaging Russia in three wars. Let me discuss them in increasing order of importance and the likely repercussions on the U.S.-led global order.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1520 ... 09600.html
“After failing to weaken the PRC head-on through a trade war, the Americans shifted the main blow to Russia. The Anglo-Saxons are striving to realize their age-old Russophobic ideas of destroying our country.” — Sergey Glazyev
Invasão:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1528 ... 58656.html
The Russian operation at the Gostomel Airport in the first few days of the war was a success. The narrative on this has been completely mutated by the media.
Let's think about what Russia accomplished with that assault.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1523 ... 79842.html
You guys have no idea how much damage Russia causes DAILY with air-defense, ballistic, cruise & air-to-ground missiles.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537 ... 02658.html
Tonight I am going to do a very pale imitation of ArmchairW and take apart some claims piece by piece made in the comment section of this post with Gen Milley making a claim about RU casualties - and we'll see how ridiculous this is
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1539 ... 57377.html
Tonight I am going to be returning to my very pale imitation of ArmchairW to be examining a recent thread by General (retd) Mark Hertling on the current state of the war in UKR
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1538 ... 09984.html
Yesterday the Ukrainian government admitted their vehicle loss figures, revealing catastrophic losses over the course of the war thus far.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540 ... 14496.html
Interesting article on the question of Russian air superiority (or its absence). I'll translate & summarize the main points in a thread
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540 ... 01281.html
Something I've noticed recently - Ukraine seems to be rapidly transitioning its front-line artillery to 155mm NATO-spec pieces. Most stories I've seen about Ukrainian artillery recently - and most Russian strike videos - involve Western guns.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1541 ... 32224.html
Observations on the Ukraine War
2022-06-28
I've watched a LOT of drone footage from this war. I've seen, from a bird's eye view, the construction and logic of the field fortifications Ukraine constructed, with US guidance, over the course of eight years.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1541 ... 76608.html
Uma análise detalhada (mas não tanto) que eu acredito que não foi feita até hoje no Twitter sobre como funciona a defesa antiaérea em camadas da Rússia na Ucrânia. No vídeo, um míssil balaieiro ucraniano Tochka-U é abatido por um míssil antiaéreo russo sobre Donbass.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1544 ... 28259.html
And now it's time for the lessons learned. According to the Wall Street Journal.
Let us see how wrong they get it!
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1544 ... 07744.html
Playing With Fire
Over the course of the past several weeks we have learned the following:
US intelligence operatives and special forces have been deployed in Ukraine throughout the ongoing war.
These US troops are directly involved in attacking Russian targets.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1543 ... 65600.html
An underreported story out of this war is how the Russians are casually shooting down tactical ballistic missiles and even artillery rockets with their normal air defense systems.
This is something the West has put huge efforts into, with less to show for it.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1544 ... 55522.html
Why the Russians will have to occupy the entirety of Ukraine — but won’t annex all of it.
Why the Zelensky goons will fight to the last Ukrainian — before they flee to the West.
Why Russia will occupy Ukraine for several years — before dismembering it.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1540 ... 08256.html
O exército russo tomou Severodonetsk. Por que as unidades russas estão avançando novamente? Ucrânia perdeu? Tentarei analisar as novas táticas do exército de Putin, que o ajudam a obter vitórias locais. Meus pensamentos estão em um novo tópico.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1544 ... 91905.html
I haven't talked truck logistics in a while. This thread will revisit truck logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1544 ... 86017.html
The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk.
What does this mean for russian logistics?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498 ... 70629.html
It’s clear from a spate of POW interviews I’ve seen the troops themselves had no idea they were going to launch this op and were completely unprepared for it, including officers. Morale is low, nothing was organized, soldiers don’t want to fight & readily abandon kit.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1543174609612279808
Good thread by Sergey. The Russian military has demonstrated a number of weaknesses (mostly vis-a-vis NATO members), but I don't think any country could successfully occupy all of Ukraine, especially with significant arms and intelligence support from NATO.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1543 ... 64448.html
A thought-provoking article by @PhillipsPOBrien about how we overstated Russia's great power capabilities: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…. Let me disagree with some of the key arguments for the sake of the argument.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1519628759116271616
More crowdfunded gear and food being sent to Russian soldiers in Ukraine, including Kestrel weather meters, shovels, hatchets, chainsaws, Alfa Arms suppressor, etc.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1531 ... 53344.html
I completely disagree with this article's conclusions, and I think it stems from a misinterpretation of the data. Tanks, fighters, and ships are not "being pushed into obsolescence" and we are mostly seeing incremental changes in warfare.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1502880364590768128
About BTGs. I would think of this more as a unit of organization, but less as a unit of force employment given how the war has been fought. Someone suggested if you take out x% of a BTG then it becomes combat ineffective. Small thread.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1540998188236251136
over the past two days the Russian MoD appears to have confirmed the Russian military's command structure in Ukraine:
Commander of Russian forces: Gennady Zhidko
Commander of Central grouping: Alexander Lapin
Commander of Southern grouping: Sergey Surovikin
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504 ... 04320.html
Thread on the current status of the war. There are 4 areas/cities to watch over the next 1-2 weeks:
-Mikolaiv
-Mariupol
-Joint Forces Operation area
-Kyiv
Russian forces are having some successes pushing against JFO but less against Kyiv and Mikolaiv.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503 ... 41896.html
Very long Sunday thread on the extent to which we overestimated the Russian military, a bit about the war, and on how we should think about Russian military power.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501 ... 44869.html
I am going to push back on the idea that what we see is that the Russian Armed Forces are merely having severe supply and readiness issues and that we should consider it to be overall modern.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510 ... 15307.html
Follow up thread on Russian force availability and long-term prospects. The Russian military has taken significant casualties. After redeploying, and pulling additional units from standing formations, it may be tapped out of available forces, for now.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510 ... 05506.html
Thoughts on the current state of the war. First half of the thread is a bit of a catchup for me, having not posted anything last weekend, and then the rest on where things might be heading & what to look for in the coming weeks. Thread. (map below from Nathan)
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1525 ... 51779.html
Western official, asked abut Gerasimov's status: "whether he is in post or not, we haven't seen any significant change...in how the battle is taking place. The Russians continue to make seemingly the same tactical errors in how they are approaching the fight."
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1498 ... 40167.html
Long thread about how I think the first 96 hours have gone, still very early/incomplete impressions. The initial Russian operation was premised on terrible assumptions about Ukraine’s ability & will to fight, and an unworkable concept of operations. Moscow badly miscalculated.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1524 ... 86401.html
Circling back to Russia's problem with manpower availability and the question of mobilization. Its unclear how they can sustain the war without making difficult political choices (and even with). However, general mobilization is the wrong issue to focus on.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1513 ... 39691.html
Some initial observations on the Russian Army Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept as implemented in Ukraine
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505 ... 83239.html
Alright Ladys and Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrition" as applied to the Russian Army truck fleet in combat.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1511888189153185796
Okay team, tonight I'll be talking about how the Russian Battalion Tactical Group is actually an artillery unit (and I'm only slightly kidding about that).
Artillery isn't glamorous like tanks, but it's far and away the most dangerous thing on the modern battlefield.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1519 ... 99776.html
A short thread on Western "analytical whiplash" with regards to this current war in Ukraine.
Bluntly, there were incentives to exaggerate Russian capabilities before the war and downplay them after it started.
But let's start at the beginning.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1519 ... 18112.html
Alright team, evening thread on Russian logistics in Ukraine. People frequently claim the Russians have logistical issues. But do they?
Well, with some public information and a little bit of math and abstraction, we can figure this out for ourselves.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1509 ... 19013.html
The Ukrainian Air Force would like to address misinformation published in multiple Western media outlets regarding the situation in the UA sky and support from our NATO allies.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1508 ... 84610.html
Five weeks have passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Today I examine why strategy matters in war, and how bad Russian strategy has been the root of all their military failures in their invasion of Ukraine.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499 ... 02944.html
This is a thread that will explain the implied poor Russian Army truck maintenance practices based on this photo of a Pantsir-S1 wheeled gun-missile system's right rear pair of tires below & the operational implications during the Ukrainian mud season.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1498764205171920904
You STOP the fuel trucks you STOP the maneuver
Logistic support,particular fuels, is of crucial importance for the success of the Russian military tasks in Ukraine. The “simple" fuel trucks are more high value targets than manoeuvring units. Why? Let’s do some maths
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502 ... 72802.html
Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russian and Belarus into Ukraine.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1507 ... 30500.html
Russia's military held a big briefing this afternoon, announcing the war was entering a 'second phase'.
Here's a summary of how Russia, at this point in the war, is depicting what it set out to do, why, and where we're at. (relaying their words, pls don't shoot msnger)
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1505 ... 62336.html
Thoughts on the current state of the war and where things might be heading. About 2 weeks ago I suggested that Russian forces have ~3 weeks before combat effectiveness becomes increasingly exhausted. I think that's generally been right, but we're not quite there yet.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1512 ... 27232.html
In the first 2 weeks, Russia declared its goals: Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory; Remain neutral w/o joining western military alliance, including NATO; Prevent the flow of strategic weapons; not become a nuclear state & recognise the Donbas province as independent.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1546 ... 99009.html
Are you a Ukrainian targeting officer? Do you want to interdict the Russian ammo supply in Ukraine with deep strikes? Would you like to figure out how much stuff you're actually going to have to hit to succeed?
Well, let's find out.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 10210.html
Russian Army 2010 era ammunition storage practices photo thread??shot with a DC Elite stupidity, money & power politics on parade chaser.
All the photos are from this link:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1541 ... 32224.html
Observations on the Ukraine War
2022-06-28
I've watched a LOT of drone footage from this war. I've seen, from a bird's eye view, the construction and logic of the field fortifications Ukraine constructed, with US guidance, over the course of eight years.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1547 ... 69220.html
Eu assisti um monte de imagens de drones desta guerra.
Eu vi, do ponto de vista do drone, a construção e a lógica das fortificações de campo que a Ucrânia construiu, com a orientação dos EUA, ao longo de oito anos.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 94528.html
The story of Russia using the S-300 as a ground-to-ground system was made up by the Ukrainians. It allows Ukraine to cover up their AD constant failures when trying to intercept targets, because they often result in civilians being struck.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 01824.html
News that Russia is firing S-300 surface-to-air missiles (Ukrainian example shown below) at ground targets is producing quite a lot of comments along the lines of 'OMG Russia is desperate'. I think that view is mistaken. A short
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1552 ... 44613.html
Russian ops/ORBAT update
14 Spetsnaz Bde to set up 32 recce-sabotage groups
8-9 new BTGs from Estern MD to #Crimea
5 BTGs from 76 Airborne Div augmented with tanks
VDV force may increase from 8,5k to 11k soldiers
19 MRDiv aug with T-90
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1528 ... 35808.html
Made a more refined take on BTG logistical requirements, now taking into account fuel and ammunition packaging size. If spaced out daily, it still came to about ~14 truckloads + ~3 7,500 L tanker trucks (deleted the 1st thread because Twitter didn't like PowerPoint)
https://pingthread.com/thread/1528500822442647554
v1.3? Tonnage was off on the initial slide for BTG logistical requirements. Believe its correct now.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1552 ... 05314.html
So I did some napkin math on possible upcoming RU supply problems in Kherson.
I based the supply need on HN_Schlottman and his post about the needs of a BTG:
https://pingthread.com/thread/1546820367624404992
QUICK THREAD on Iranian drones to Russia (summary of yesterday's Tweets): Did not see this coming. Thought that Russia would acquire Chinese drones, if anything. Possible Iranian candidates may include Ababil, Mohajer and Shahed varieties.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1553 ... 52897.html
Seen a few takes recently arguing that Russian weapons don’t work well. Having spent time inside a number of Russian manufactured systems I thought I’d address why I think there is often a gap between Russian weapons on paper versus their performance in the field.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1554 ... 32192.html
What do Russian soldiers think of their commanders in Ukraine? This fourth in a series looks at soldiers' personal accounts and intercepted calls, as translated by wartranslated, and what they say about their leaders' deficiencies and Russia's tactics in the Ukraine war.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1546 ... 84032.html
Reading about the Sino-Vietnamese border conflicts of 1979 through the 1980s, one can’t help but get a sense of déjà vu. In fact the prelude with the buildup in 1979 eerily echoes the current special military operation.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1558 ... 94945.html
Alright, since the "West" education level has declined so badly that their "experts" are no longer capable of basic arithmetic, here's a thread on some Kherson ferry math. There are approximations, but they are conservative.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1559 ... 55813.html
Alright folks, let's strap in for the most important logistical thread of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
This thread is about how much artillery ammunition the Russian Army has left over from the Cold War and what shape it is in.
Outros:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1529 ... 23232.html
Alright team, news came out today that the US is looking at giving Ukraine MLRS systems. BrOSINT is of course saying this is a game-changer and will turn the tide of battle.
It's going to be a bust like every other "game changer" weapon thus far. Let's look at why.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1537 ... 33632.html
Alright team, I owe you guys a thread on battle theory. Let's talk force employment and why no single weapon system is ever going to be a "game-changer" in modern war... at least between opponents who know what they're doing.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1533 ... 39424.html
more on my concern of how possible Ukrainian MIM-104 Battery can be a threat to Russian AEW. So there seems to be indication of deployment of A-50U AEW into Black Sea Fleet.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1538 ... 99684.html
This is a really good piece and addresses an issue I have been banging on about for about a decade. Namely that not only do we lack the stockpiles to fight a proper war. We lack the industry to sustain it.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1542 ... 00320.html
Why the US/NATO could never win and will never fight a war against Russia – unless the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult somehow seizes the reins of power, in which case, it will become the biggest catastrophe in US military history, and likely result in a nuclear war:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1506 ... 09701.html
My new piece in on Russian nuclear decision making is out in WarOnTheRocks In it, I argue that Russian idiosyncrasies are useful to discuss potential Russian nuclear employment in Ukraine.
https://pingthread.com/thread/1491551321413066756
Today, at least 21 NATO and Swedish ISR aircraft flew collection sorties over Europe: USN P-8As (2 PL09x, 4 PK09x, 4 PS09x); USAF RC-135W (JAKE11), RC-135V (HOMER31), E-8C (REDEYE6); US Army RC-12Xs (YANK01, YANK02), ARTEMIS (BRIO68);
https://pingthread.com/thread/1502437190365757445
Today, at least 10 NATO ISR aircraft flew sorties around Ukraine: US Army RC-12X (YANK01, YANK02, YANK03), ARTEMIS (BRIO68); USAF E-8C (REDEYE6), RQ-4 (FORTE10); USN EP-3E (AW12); RAF RC-135W (RRR7243); Italian G550 AEW (PERSEO71); NATO E-3A (NATO01).
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1552 ... 98208.html
The HIMARS mobile rocket launcher has been in the news as a powerful new weapon in Ukraine. I thought a teardown of its internal electronics would be interesting. (Nobody would give me a HIMARS so this is a "virtual" teardown.) Laser gyros and other technology ahead
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1549 ... 31936.html
Ok here we go. "Real economy" time.
The Russia Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions has illuminated something very important about the "global economy"
The "on paper" stats showing economic size and prowess are bunk.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1563 ... 70272.html
link in the last thread. I spoke with yet another soldier from 64th Motor Rifle Brigade. Petr Danilov is suspected by Ukraine of committing atrocities in Bucha. He claims he was not there and describes the scale of catastrophe the Russian army experienced near Kyiv.
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