Moderador: Conselho de Moderação
Carlos Mathias escreveu:Chávez tá fazendo a cama e os bobos vão deitar nela. Vamos é nos distanciar desse pessoal, deixa que eles mesmos vão se afundar sozinhos.
UE, EUA e alguns países mais sérios da A do S, o resto o Chávez faz um favor se levar.
Pois é Carlos, minha grande dúvida é o que os argentinos vão escolher...,
Eles bem sabem o que é um governo populista, em 1982 eles descobriram da pior forma.
Rogo a Deus para que o próximo presidente não cometa vacilos só para ficar popular.
Vamos ver como a Argentina se sai de mais uma crise mundial que se avizinha.
Carlos Mathias escreveu:Pois é Carlos, minha grande dúvida é o que os argentinos vão escolher...,
Eles bem sabem o que é um governo populista, em 1982 eles descobriram da pior forma.
Rogo a Deus para que o próximo presidente não cometa vacilos só para ficar popular.
Vamos ver como a Argentina se sai de mais uma crise mundial que se avizinha.
Pois é, eles vão escolher se querem subir conosco, ou afundar com Chávez e suas sereias de petróleo. Deus ilumine os nossos vizinhos, mas é aquilo, acho que nosso governo agora tá numa de: "Amigo, se quiser vir junto prá somar, seja muito bem vindo, mas se for prá criar tumulto, pode ir ficando por aí mesmo..."
Venezuela: uma economia mais justa é uma economia mais próspera
Ao contrário do que muitos dizem e esperariam, a economia venezuelana está de boa saúde, apesar de todas as tentativas de sabotagem. E o petróleo não é o único responsável. Apesar das nacionalizações e da queda do investimento directo estrangeiro, ou talvez por causa disso, a economia venezuela prospera (segundo o Banco Central da Venezuela terá crescido 8.9% no 2º trimestre). A redistribuição do rendimento e os programas sociais estão na origem de um alto nível de consumo , associado a um forte investimento na produção endógena (investimento no sector agrícola será o mais elevado dos últimos 50 anos e a produção deverá crescer 16.6% face a 2006). Claro que os padrões de consumo da classe média e alta ainda são muito influenciados pelo estilo de vida norteamericano, mas esperar alterações comportamentais tão profundas em média dúzia de anos seria ingénuo. Ler ainda estes dois artigos da Business Week integrados num dossier "Chávez, not so bad for Business": A Love-Hate Relationship With Chávez e You're Working For Chávez Now.
The Venezuelan Economy Grows by 8.9 Percent in Second Quarter of 2007
By: Chris Carlson - Venezuelanalysis.com
The Venezuelan economy showed a growth rate of 8.9 percent in the second quarter of 2007, according to statistics released by the Central Bank of Venezuela this week. The continued growth of the Venezuelan economy for nearly 4 consecutive years is a result of many factors, including government policies to invest in social programs and raise household purchasing power, said Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas.
Speaking on the state TV channel earlier this week, Cabezas stated that the Venezuelan economy has entered into a phase of sustained economic growth. The nation's GDP has shown three years of consecutive growth since the end of 2003 and has a growth rate of nearly 9 percent so far this year. In 2006 the economy grew by 10.3 percent, and Cabezas assured growth of at least 8 percent for 2007.
"The estimates that we have in the national government indicate that the Venezuelan economy will grow by no less than 8 percent of GDP," he said.
The minister pointed to many factors that have led to this growth, including the high prices on the world oil market in recent years. Higher state spending in social programs and infrastructure has also contributed to the growth as have the increases in minimum wage.
"Venezuela has the highest minimum wage in Latin America," explained Cabezas, who also emphasized the "important policies of social inclusion that increase household purchasing power."
The private sector has also played a role in the economic growth with increased levels of investment. Higher levels of aggregate demand and overall consumption have led to growth in manufacturing (8.2 percent), commerce (17.9 percent), construction (15.5 percent), and transportation (14.8 percent).
According to the Central Bank report, the growth is due to "higher internal aggregate demand in investment spending as well as consumption spending, products of greater access to credit, sustained government social programs, investment in infrastructure on the part of the public and private sectors and higher real household incomes."
Growth in the non-oil sector is responsible for the higher overall growth. The non-oil sector experienced a growth rate of 10.8 percent in the second quarter of this year, mostly due to private sector growth.
Activity in the oil sector, however, actually contracted as a result of the OPEC agreement to reduce production. In this sector, the private sector contracted by 11.6 percent, and the public sector by 2.3 percent.
In the private construction sector grew by 18.7 percent and the public construction sector by 12.7 percent. According to the Central Bank, private sector construction has been mostly dedicated to non-residential building, such as shopping centers and hotels in the major cities of the country.
Construction in the public sector, on the other hand, has been mostly associated with infrastructure, roads, schools, health clinics, and irrigation with funds from the national development fund Fonden.
Cabezas said that Venezuela's growth is much above the average for the region at 3.5 percent and he emphasized that this translates as a "higher level of social wellbeing" for the Venezuelan population as well as more purchasing power.
He also stated that "a change in the structure" of national imports in favor or more capital goods would lead to higher productivity and production. The Central Bank report shows a growth of 6.2 percent in the supply of national production and an increase of 35.5 percent in imported goods.
Cabezas assured that the national government will maintain policies to fight inflation and reach its goal of 12 percent for the end of 2007. They also hope to lower unemployment, currently at 8 percent, to 7 percent by the end of the year.
Venezuelan Government Announces Increased Agricultural Production for 2007
By: Chris Carlson - Venezuelanalysis.com
Total agricultural production in Venezuela has increased in 2007, according to Venezuelan Minister of Agriculture Elias Jaua. The minister estimates that agricultural production for this year will be able to resolve the shortage problems of earlier this year. Jaua emphasized that the Chavez government's agricultural policy of record-breaking investment in the agricultural sector was responsible for the increased production.
"In 50 years there has not been an investment of this magnitude," explained Jaua yesterday at the First National Meeting of the Agricultural Communication Network. "In the last 3 years [investment] has surpassed 15 billion bolivars [US$ 7 billion] and just in 2007 it is 6 billion bolivars [US$ 2.7 billion]," he said.
Jaua estimated that total production for 2007 will finish at around 21 million tons, about 3 tons more and a 16.6 percent increase from the total production in 2006. This number, however, "is only an estimation because it is difficult to predict agricultural production exactly due to climate variables," said Jaua.
Production in key areas such as chicken, beef, and milk has also increased according to the minister, although he stated that it would be necessary to import food in these areas to meet national demand. Because of increased demand in the country for meats, the Venezuelan government authorized the importation of 50,000 tons from Brazil.
In areas such as fresh vegetables, fruits, and grains, he assured that internal demand had been met and there should be ample supply to meet national needs. He also assured that there would be enough production of corn and rice to cover the needs of the population.
"We have achieved the levels of supply that we have been increasing due to the policies of the Chavez government and without a doubt we have had some adversities, such as a very intense summer in the area of [the state of] Guarico that is going to affect the outcome of corn, but in any case we have calculated all the projections and there is going to be enough supply of flour," stated Jaua.
The supply of tomatoes could pose a problem, he said, due to the difficulty in planting them during the rainy season, and therefore their price tends to peak during the month of August. But the minister stated that in the states of Merida and Lara greenhouse production of tomatoes, onions, and peppers should guarantee supply of these vegetables during the rainy season.
Jaua emphasized the success of the National Plan for Agricultural Development set forth by the Chavez government and assured that agricultural production would see good results this year. The minister stated that the current agricultural program is something that has not been seen in Venezuela since the years of Isaias Medina Angarita, president from 1941 to 1945. He criticized the governments since that time which have carried out what he called policies "to break up the national agricultural structure" and transform the country into a food importer.
The minister also commented on the coverage that the media gives to problems such as shortages. "It's a daily attack from the major media and the spokespersons of the opposition about agriculture," he said, "which makes it a big challenge for us."
But Jaua assured good results for the future. "We are optimistic that this year we are going to have good results in terms of production in the short term. But there is also a sustained effort in terms of agricultural infrastructure, agro-industrial development, and scientific-technological development that is going to have definitive results over the long term," he concluded.
A Love-Hate Relationship With Chávez
Companies are chafing under the fiery socialist. But in some respects, business has never been better
Just how hard is it to do business in Venezuela? As President Hugo Chávez leads his country toward "21st century socialism," hardly a day passes without another change in the rules restricting companies. Want to export? First get government certification that there's no domestic shortage of your product. Want to import? Prove that the goods aren't available locally. Chávez has already forced global oil giants, phone carriers, and power companies to hand over control of key assets. Now he says he might nationalize banks, hospitals, and steel companies. No wonder foreign direct investment, which averaged $3.2 billion annually during Chávez's first three years in office, plunged to a net outflow of $2.6 billion last year. "It's a bit like the...French Revolution," says Edmond J. Saade, president of the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce (VenAmChamNo doubt, Venezuela is a pretty scary place to invest these days. But in some respects business is better than ever. Thanks to soaring oil revenues, Chávez is spending heavily--some $13.3 billion last year alone--to win support for his "Bolivarian Revolution." For the past three years the economy has grown at an 11%-to-12% clip, while consumption has expanded by 18% annually. The poor, 58% of all Venezuelans, have seen their meager household incomes more than double since 2004 thanks to cash stipends, subsidized food, and scholarships from the government's social-development programs. The result: Sales of everything from basics such as Coca-Cola (KO ) and Crest toothpaste to big-ticket items like Ford (F )SUVs and Mercedes-Benz (DCX ) sedans have taken off.
You might call it business' love-hate relationship with Chávez. Local and foreign companies alike are raking in more money than ever in Venezuela. Two-way trade between the U.S. and Venezuela has never been higher. Venezuela exported more than $42 billion to the U.S. last year, including 1 million barrels of oil daily, and imported $9 billion worth of American goods, up 41% from 2005. But since Chávez declared President George W. Bush Public Enemy No. 1, Americans prefer to keep a low profile, even though VenAmCham's 1,100 member companies account for more than 650,000 jobs. "Consumption has been going through the roof, and commercial relations between the U.S. and Venezuela are still workable, but on the political front there is confrontation," says Saade. "American business is caught in the middle."
UNDENIABLE POTENTIAL
Even global oil companies-- Chavez's chief targets so far--are likely to stay put. Although they have been forced to turn over control of their projects to the state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Chávez can't afford to alienate them. Ventures involving foreign companies account for 40% of Venezuela's output of 2.4 million barrels a day. For the multinational oil giants, the country is too important to ignore, even if it means they no longer call the shots. "Venezuela's oil potential is so great," says a foreign oil executive who declined to be identified. "We're not making huge returns, but it's not a financial black hole, either."
Other industries are not only putting up with Chávez but also benefiting directly from his programs. Take Intel Corp.: Sales of its microprocessors in Venezuela jumped by 15% in 2006 and look set to grow at the same pace this year as the government equips schools and public offices with new computers. In December, Caracas started a joint venture with China's Lanchao Group to manufacture low-cost machines called "Bolivarian PCs." The venture, 60% owned by Lanchao, will produce 80,000 computers in Venezuela the first year and 150,000 in 2008, including a stripped-down desktop model that will cost $450. Intel says the government alone could buy as many as 300,000 computers. "There's a lot of money in the Venezuelan market now, and it's important to take advantage of that," says Guillermo Deffit, Intel's business-development manager in Venezuela.
Sales of cars and cola are booming, too. Ford and General Motors Corp. (GM ) have manufactured cars in Venezuela for nearly a half-century, but with the strength of the bolivar, imports of pricier models such as the Ford Expedition sport-utility vehicle and GM's Silverado pickup are on the rise. Last year, Ford's sales increased 52%, to nearly 62,000 cars and trucks, as its imports more than tripled, to 28,000. GM's sales jumped 21% last year, to 71,000 vehicles, and so far this year are on track to climb by 50%. And sales of Coke and other beverages made by bottler Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF ) in Venezuela jumped 25% in the first quarter of 2007, in spite of a two-day shutdown of the company's distribution center in March for a surprise audit by tax authorities.
AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
For local companies that have managed to survive Chávez's ever-changing business rules, the fast-growing economy offers some small solace--but few guarantees for the future. "We have fewer competitors every year because people throw in the towel," says the owner of a family company that provides raw materials for a variety of industries. He declined to give his name, fearing government retaliation, but he says his profit margins are getting fatter as he faces less competition. Still, his company has shrunk to just 100 employees from 300 since Chávez came to power in 1999, and sales have fallen by half. Dozens of his friends have left the country in recent years, and one of his top managers is decamping soon for Florida, where many middle-class Venezuelans have made their homes. But he's determined to stick it out.
As Chávez continues his socialist crusade, there are signs of rising discontent: A recent decision to revoke a popular TV network's license sparked outrage among university students, who took to the streets in early June. And the consumption boom is fueling inflation, now running at 18% annually. In any event, the fiery President can hardly do without business. Private companies account for half the government's nonoil tax receipts and 83% of jobs, says Ruth de Krivoy, a former Central Bank president who runs Síntesis Financiera, a Caracas think tank. "The government believes that state-run companies...will take the place of the exploiting' business class," she notes. "But if you erase the private sector from the map, what do you have left? Not much."
You're Working For Chávez Now
The Venezuelan president is squeezing global players, but few are squealing
What's it like to do business in the global capital of oil nationalism? Most international oil executives in Caracas don't want to speak on the record about the tricky game of dealing with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. But one executive confides that this has been a brutal year. The low point came on Mar. 31 when he was required to attend a ceremony at the Miraflores presidential palace, where Chávez took pleasure in bringing representatives of the world's oil elite -- companies such as Chevron (CVX ), Royal YPF Dutch Shell (RDSA ), BP (BP ), and Repsol (REP ) -- to heel. The occasion: the signing of documents that gave the state control over much of Big Oil's existing production in Venezuela. "It left a bad taste in my mouth," says the executive, adding that his child caught sight of him on TV and remarked to a friend: "My dad is angry. I'd better not go home."
The ceremony was another sign that the global oil companies are taking a beating from national governments in many parts of the globe. Venezuela opened 32 so-called marginal fields to international companies in the 1990s, contracting out operations to Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell PLC, and others, which got a per-barrel fee depending on volume and price over a 20-year term. The companies poured an estimated $12 billion into these fields, increasing production by some 400,000 barrels a day with no capital expenditure by the government. But because these operating contracts were pegged to the oil price, Chávez condemned them as concessions in disguise -- an illegal violation of the country's sovereignty.
Now state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) will convert these contracts into joint ventures that give it at least a 60% stake and control of the board. Oil executives fear the government will interfere with key investments and operational decisions. The oil majors are taking a financial hit, too. Gero Farruggio, an analyst at Edinburgh energy consultants Wood Mackenzie, estimates that if the contracts had remained in force, the companies stood to make another $7.7 billion. Now he figures they will lose $3.7 billion of that amount. France's Total and Italy's ENI lost the most: The government seized fields run by them when they rejected the new terms. ENI, which has invested some $1.65 billion in its 60,000 barrel-per-day field, lost $900 million, Farruggio estimates. Total probably lost $320 million. The government is offering the companies a total of $900 million compensation in the form of vouchers, but that won't cover the value of the projects. One executive calls the vouchers "Monopoly money."
Certainly, when prices are high, oil is the most political of commodities, and nowhere is that more true than in Chávez' Venezuela, a country that provides the U.S. with about 15% of its daily oil needs. Chávez, like leaders in other oil-producing countries from Russia to Bolivia, has been squeezing the international oil companies for everything he can get -- without quite going so far as to drive the industry out altogether. The ex-paratrooper, who came to power in 1999 and faces reelection in December, wants ever-higher revenues to boost his already lavish programs for Venezuela's poor, from monthly stipends for needy students to rice-and-beans subsidies for the barrios.
TURNING THE TABLES
This environment is a far cry from the 1990s, when Venezuela welcomed the big oil companies to invest in marginal fields at a time of low prices. Now Chávez and Oil Minister Rafael Ramírez, who also heads PDVSA, have turned the tables. Besides pushing the companies into joint ventures, Chávez has sharply hiked royalties and taxes on these operations to an effective take of more than 80%.
These moves are not sitting well with the global players. BP CEO John Browne echoes what others say privately: that Venezuela risks losing the investment it needs to keep its oil flowing. The recent changes "certainly don't give [the Venezuelans] access to investment for the future," warns Browne. "It takes time to get over a change like this."
The atmosphere in Caracas may soon get worse. PDVSA is suggesting that it wants control of key heavy oil projects in the Orinoco Belt. They produce 600,000 barrels a day of sludgy crude and pipe it to the coast, where it is processed into refinable crude. ExxonMobil (XOM ), Total, Chevron, ConocoPhillips (COP ), BP, and Statoil (STO ), along with PDVSA as a minority partner, have invested a total of $12.4 billion in these projects since the mid-1990s. They could produce an estimated $3 billion in cash flow this year, according to Wood Mackenzie. Venezuela claims 235 billion barrels of heavy oil, which would put it in a league with Saudi Arabia; heavy oil is considered the future.
Now, PDVSA wants to control these capital and technology-driven projects, a move that could put them at risk. In an interview with BusinessWeek, Eulogio Del Pino, president of PDVSA CVP, which handles joint ventures, predicted that his company would take at least 51% positions in the four heavy oil companies, while royalties and income taxes would rise to 30% and 50%, up from 16.7% and 34%, respectively. The silver lining would be that the new arrangements offer companies the chance of increased production. "There are many, many new possibilities," he says.
Would taking control of the heavy oil projects be enough to make Big Oil turn and run? Most executives think staying in Venezuela worthwhile because there are not many other places where they can tap such massive reserves. "It's naive to expect stability in a developing country," says one executive. The key to business survival, they add, is to establish strong relationships with competent officials below Chávez and Ramírez. One important contact is Deputy Oil Minister Bernard Mommer. An internationally known policy expert who spent several years at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, he is a proponent of subordinating the petroleum majors to the state. "He has very fixed ideas on how it should be done," says one key executive, but Mommer recognizes the need for foreign capital. In the latest round of talks, Mommer and Del Pino were "very polite but very determined. There was no real negotiation. It's hard to blame the government for trying to get a bigger share of the pie when prices are high," another executive adds. What bothers the oil companies is the "substantial change in how the contracts are laid out -- all of a sudden private investors are not in control."
Mommer knew that Chevron and Shell were likely to accept the government's deal, figuring that if they went along they could get better access to the country's resources. He was right. Only two,Total and ENI, rejected the terms outright, while ExxonMobil had already sold its small Venezuelan stake to Repsol. (ExxonMobil remains active in a bigger, heavy oil project.)
These results please Del Pino. Over coffee at his office above Caracas' middle-class La Campiña section, he looked tired recently but seemed proud that he persuaded 16 companies to convert their contract agreements into joint ventures. "It was not easy with Shell," he admits. "But now they are happy. We are ready to talk about new business." Shell was chagrined that its field in Lake Maracaibo, which produces 50,000 barrels a day, would be part of a company in which it owns just 40%. But Shell gained sweeteners such as a 13-year extension on its contract. The company hopes that it can expand the venture to nearby PDVSA fields. The new arrangement, says Del Pino, is "much more transparent and legal."
While they bridle at the new terms, the oil execs know they have little choice. What really worries them is that PDVSA may start calling too many of the shots at the new ventures. Industry sources say PDVSA lacks the managerial skills to run its own operations, let alone take on 32 more fields. After the company went on strike in 2002 in an unsuccessful attempt to oust Chávez, the government fired about 18,000 employees. At the fields PDVSA manages exclusively, production has fallen by almost 50% since Chávez gained power, to about 1.6 million barrels a day, according to consultants PFC Energy. (PDVSA says it produces 2.3 million barrels a day, but most analysts dispute that number.)
PDVSA has big plans to raise production to 5 million barrels or so -- but the plans have been on the books for years. "Venezuela has a resource base for 300 years," says Ali Moshiri, president of Chevron Latin America. But he adds that the country needs to show it can develop those reserves. For now, Big Oil can only hang on while Chávez shakes things up even more.
cicloneprojekt escreveu:Carlos Mathias escreveu:Pois é Carlos, minha grande dúvida é o que os argentinos vão escolher...,
Eles bem sabem o que é um governo populista, em 1982 eles descobriram da pior forma.
Rogo a Deus para que o próximo presidente não cometa vacilos só para ficar popular.
Vamos ver como a Argentina se sai de mais uma crise mundial que se avizinha.
Pois é, eles vão escolher se querem subir conosco, ou afundar com Chávez e suas sereias de petróleo. Deus ilumine os nossos vizinhos, mas é aquilo, acho que nosso governo agora tá numa de: "Amigo, se quiser vir junto prá somar, seja muito bem vindo, mas se for prá criar tumulto, pode ir ficando por aí mesmo..."
É nessa hora que me gustaria saber qual o volume de reservas cambiais argentinas, para enfrentar essa crise que está aí e que ninguém sabe direito no que vai dar.
sds
Walter
O que está rebocando a economia argentina atende pelo nome de SOJA.TR-1700 escreveu:cicloneprojekt escreveu:Carlos Mathias escreveu:Pois é Carlos, minha grande dúvida é o que os argentinos vão escolher...,
Eles bem sabem o que é um governo populista, em 1982 eles descobriram da pior forma.
Rogo a Deus para que o próximo presidente não cometa vacilos só para ficar popular.
Vamos ver como a Argentina se sai de mais uma crise mundial que se avizinha.
Pois é, eles vão escolher se querem subir conosco, ou afundar com Chávez e suas sereias de petróleo. Deus ilumine os nossos vizinhos, mas é aquilo, acho que nosso governo agora tá numa de: "Amigo, se quiser vir junto prá somar, seja muito bem vindo, mas se for prá criar tumulto, pode ir ficando por aí mesmo..."
É nessa hora que me gustaria saber qual o volume de reservas cambiais argentinas, para enfrentar essa crise que está aí e que ninguém sabe direito no que vai dar.
sds
Walter
Amigo Ciclo, esta crisis mundial, toma a Argentina mucho mejor parada que en otras ocasiones.
Contestando a tu pregunta, te puedo decir que las reservas del Banco Central de la República Argentina, al viernes pasado, totalizan los U$ 43.950 millones. Hace menos de un mes llegaron al record de U$ 44.500 millones, pero para mantener el dolar estable, el Banco Central salió a vender dolares y las reservas bajaron un tanto.-
Otro aspecto que debe tenerse en cuenta es que Argentina, luego de haber saldado su deuda con el FMI ( unos U$ 10.000 millones) quedó con solo U$ 18.000 millones de reservas; y casi un año y medio después llegaron a rondar los U$ 45.000 millones.
Esto se dió en un contexto de ahorro general en todos los paises latinoamericanos, siendo muy pocos los que no lo experimentaron.
Otro aspecto clave para tener en cuenta a la hora de ver qué tan vulnerable pude ser un país a una crisis financiera de éstas características es en su equilibrio fiscal y su balanza de pagos.
En el caso particular de Argentina, sus cuentas registran un importante superavit fiscal y un nada despreciable superavit en su balanza de pagos (importaciones/exportaciones).-
Finalmente otro punto a tener en cuenta es el de los futuros vencimientos de la deuda. En este aspecto, también debo decir que en lo que queda del año no se tienen importantes sumas que abonar por la deuda soberana.
Cierto es que la crisis afecta y afectará a mi país, los precios de los productos que exporta, han experimentado una baja apreciable en éstos últimos días, los inversores tienden a retraer inversiones en paises "complicados" y llevan sus dineros a lugares más seguros. Seguramente el crecimiento del PBI tanto por esta crisis como por la energética no sea todo lo bueno que se esperaba para este año; pero de igual forma Argentina crecerá más del 6,5 % y repito esta crisis internacional encuentra por todo lo que he señalado, mejor parada a Argentina en el aspecto económico financiero.-
Espero haber contestado sus interrogantes.
Un fuerte abrazo desde mi Buenos Aires querido
TR-1700 , é claro que a economia argentina não se resume a soja , sei disso e sei bastante , esteja certo . Ocorre que formulei a frase acima pelo contexto atual de bonança para o complexo soja e sua consequencia de arrecadação de moeda forte para a Argentina . Observe os números de todo o complexo soja argentino . Paradoxalmente , no Brasil não conseguimos capitalizar esses mesmos ganhos obtidos por aí , dado o nosso câmbio estar muito desfarovável . Quanto a carne , hoje a Argentina tem muito pouco excedente para vender ao exterior , embora consiga obter um preço melhor por ter a melhor carne do mundo . Na carne bovina , o Brasil exporta um produto de inferior qualidade , exceção feita à carne aqui do meu estado e poucas iniciativas em outras localidades do país , mas em compensação temos uma escala de produção inigualável . O Complexo carne deverá em breve ser o nosso maior setor exportador. Quase já é.TR-1700 escreveu:Amigo Dieneces:
La soja es muy importante, pero gracias a Dios, producto de los bio combustibles, todos nuestros cereales y oleaginosas experimentaron un alza increíble. Argentina es un importante productor de aceites de maíz y girasol entre otros.
Pero no todo es semilla, la industria automotriz, ha exportado cerca del 75 % de su producción, lo que casi representa un monto de U$ 4.000 millones.
Las exportaciones mineras han sido un verdadero record, muy superiores a las cifras obtenidas por la exportaciones de carnes vacunas en la que mi país tiene una importante historia.-
Un abrazo, amigo gaúcho.-
O jornal Expreso, de Lima, denunciou ontem que latas de atum com fotografias do presidente venezuelano, Hugo Chávez, e do líder nacionalista peruano Ollanta Humala foram distribuídas às vítimas do terremoto de em distritos periféricos das cidades de Ica, Pisco, Chincha e Cañete. O rótulo das embalagens trazia a frase “Contra saques, bloqueios, desespero e caos. Solidariedade para com nossos compatriotas”. Outro texto ressalta que “o governo do Peru age de maneira ineficiente, lenta e sem coração, não se importando com a dor das vítimas e as deixando à mercê da fome, da sede e da bandidagem”. Em Caracas, o porta-voz da Presidência da Venezuela, Simón Barroso, disse ao Correio que entrou em contato com a embaixada em Lima e classificou a notícia de falsa. “Isso parece ser produto de interesses ocultos”, afirmou.
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Michel Chossudovsky: “os EUA atacarão as finanças de Venezuela”
O economista canadense, Michel Chossudovsky, adverte que o EUA continuará as suas acções contra a Venezuela, embora agora, principalmente, no âmbito económico, fracassadas as tentativas de derrubar o governo do presidente Hugo Chavez em 2002.
Chossudovsky, autor do livro “a miséria em Venezuela”, publicado em 1977, mantém que assim como em 1997 os Estados Unidos causou a queda das economias dos países Asiáticos (Japão, Tailândia e Indonésia), a potencia norte-americano intentará contra a Venezuela, através da especulação com a sua moeda corrente.
Explicou que nos citados países, os especuladores vendiam a moeda que não teve o endosso, causando a depreciação do respectivo valor monetário, gerando a hiper inflação e a subsequente queda do poder de compra, da população.
Embora evitasse fazer um balanço situação económica actual de Venezuela, alegando que somente está de por dias no país, Chossudovsky explicou que as causas da miséria eram devido à falta da vontade política durante os governos de AD Copei para levar a cabo uma justa distribuição da riqueza, com os investimentos devidos, da venda de petróleo, na saúde, na instrução e no desenvolvimento da agricultura, de forma a que garantisse a auto-suficiência alimentar.
Controle do cambio. O académico propôs seguir o exemplo da Malásia, que foi o único país que resistiu aos ataques financeiros, exercendo o controle do cambio. Advertiu que existe o perigo de tomar exemplos da América Latina “que são um desastre”.
“O conhecimento do mercado cambial internacional, assim como as experiências da Argentina e do Brasil, são fundamentais para não repetir os erros. Havia determinado ilusão da estabilidade cambial. O Real (Brasil) permaneceu estável enquanto havia uma fuga de capitais, possibilitando de desviar o dinheiro do país “.
Recordou que, como houve liberdade no mercado cambial, o real manteve-se com taxas de interesse muito elevado e a possibilidade de desviar os dólares, aumentou “de maneira dramática”, o nível do endividamento interno subia, houve a transformação dessa divida interna em externa, em um dado momento, porque os especuladores sacaram o seu dinheiro do pais, e essa divida ficou dolarizada”.
A minha recomendação para a Venezuela é manter o controle da mudança “.
Mantém que a reforma monetária deve-se fazer com a colaboração do sector bancário.
“A reforma monetária não pode ser feita totalmente, contra a banca, é necessária estabelecer mecanismos de negociação muito sofisticados. Se não, vai ser a guerra.
Destacou que o centro de pesquisa que dirige está “mais metido” no planeamento militar, e argumenta que a guerra é uma outra maneira que tem os EUA para impor o neoliberalismo.
Pensa que num curto prazo, não existe a possibilidade de um ataque militar por parte dos EUA contra Venezuela, mas considera que podem haver operações encobertas e adverte que o estadounidense é “um capitalismo louco”.
PROJECTO ENGAVETADO•
Michel Chossudovsky é professor da economia da universidade de Ottawa (Can) e director do centro de pesquisa sobre a Globalização, situado em Montreal. Foi à Venezuela em 1975 como o assessor de Cordiplan a onde dirigiu o estudo denominado Mapa da pobreza, “que foi engavetado pelo Conselho de Ministros e que deu origem ao livro “A miséria na Venezuela”, editado em 1977.
Fez estudos económicos no Chile durante o governo de Salvador Allende, na Argentina (1976), Jugoslávia e na Federação Russa. Indicou que o seu sonho é voltar à Venezuela para fazer um novo estudo sobre este tema. “Seria muito diferente, um exercício do democratização da informação, não se tornaria em um escritório de Cordiplan, mas com contactos com as bases sociais, em diversos níveis”.
Felix Edmundo Perez Serra
ademir escreveu:Michel Chossudovsky: “os EUA atacarão as finanças de Venezuela”
O economista canadense, Michel Chossudovsky, adverte que o EUA continuará as suas acções contra a Venezuela, embora agora, principalmente, no âmbito económico, fracassadas as tentativas de derrubar o governo do presidente Hugo Chavez em 2002.
Chossudovsky, autor do livro “a miséria em Venezuela”, publicado em 1977, mantém que assim como em 1997 os Estados Unidos causou a queda das economias dos países Asiáticos (Japão, Tailândia e Indonésia), a potencia norte-americano intentará contra a Venezuela, através da especulação com a sua moeda corrente.
Explicou que nos citados países, os especuladores vendiam a moeda que não teve o endosso, causando a depreciação do respectivo valor monetário, gerando a hiper inflação e a subsequente queda do poder de compra, da população.
Embora evitasse fazer um balanço situação económica actual de Venezuela, alegando que somente está de por dias no país, Chossudovsky explicou que as causas da miséria eram devido à falta da vontade política durante os governos de AD Copei para levar a cabo uma justa distribuição da riqueza, com os investimentos devidos, da venda de petróleo, na saúde, na instrução e no desenvolvimento da agricultura, de forma a que garantisse a auto-suficiência alimentar.
Controle do cambio. O académico propôs seguir o exemplo da Malásia, que foi o único país que resistiu aos ataques financeiros, exercendo o controle do cambio. Advertiu que existe o perigo de tomar exemplos da América Latina “que são um desastre”.
“O conhecimento do mercado cambial internacional, assim como as experiências da Argentina e do Brasil, são fundamentais para não repetir os erros. Havia determinado ilusão da estabilidade cambial. O Real (Brasil) permaneceu estável enquanto havia uma fuga de capitais, possibilitando de desviar o dinheiro do país “.
Recordou que, como houve liberdade no mercado cambial, o real manteve-se com taxas de interesse muito elevado e a possibilidade de desviar os dólares, aumentou “de maneira dramática”, o nível do endividamento interno subia, houve a transformação dessa divida interna em externa, em um dado momento, porque os especuladores sacaram o seu dinheiro do pais, e essa divida ficou dolarizada”.
A minha recomendação para a Venezuela é manter o controle da mudança “.
Mantém que a reforma monetária deve-se fazer com a colaboração do sector bancário.
“A reforma monetária não pode ser feita totalmente, contra a banca, é necessária estabelecer mecanismos de negociação muito sofisticados. Se não, vai ser a guerra.
Destacou que o centro de pesquisa que dirige está “mais metido” no planeamento militar, e argumenta que a guerra é uma outra maneira que tem os EUA para impor o neoliberalismo.
Pensa que num curto prazo, não existe a possibilidade de um ataque militar por parte dos EUA contra Venezuela, mas considera que podem haver operações encobertas e adverte que o estadounidense é “um capitalismo louco”.
PROJECTO ENGAVETADO•
Michel Chossudovsky é professor da economia da universidade de Ottawa (Can) e director do centro de pesquisa sobre a Globalização, situado em Montreal. Foi à Venezuela em 1975 como o assessor de Cordiplan a onde dirigiu o estudo denominado Mapa da pobreza, “que foi engavetado pelo Conselho de Ministros e que deu origem ao livro “A miséria na Venezuela”, editado em 1977.
Fez estudos económicos no Chile durante o governo de Salvador Allende, na Argentina (1976), Jugoslávia e na Federação Russa. Indicou que o seu sonho é voltar à Venezuela para fazer um novo estudo sobre este tema. “Seria muito diferente, um exercício do democratização da informação, não se tornaria em um escritório de Cordiplan, mas com contactos com as bases sociais, em diversos níveis”.
Felix Edmundo Perez Serra
BOGOTÁ (Reuters) - Os vizinhos da Venezuela devem estar preparados para reagir à potencial ameaça do crescimento bélico do país, que poderia ser usado para intimidação ao invés de defesa, disse na quinta-feira um importante funcionário do governo norte-americano.
O presidente venezuelano, o socialista Hugo Chávez, irritou Washington nos últimos tempos ao gastar bilhões de dólares em caças, helicópteros e rifles russos.
O governo Bush proibiu a venda de armas dos EUA à Venezuela e critica os planos militares de Chávez, que pretende construir uma fábrica de rifles, os quais segundo Washington poderia chegar a guerrilheiros na vizinha Colômbia.
"Parece que a ampliação desse personagem realmente não responde à realidade do terreno aqui", disse o subsecretário-assistente de Defesa dos EUA para o Hemisfério Ocidental, Stephen Johnson, a jornalistas durante visita a Bogotá.
"[A ampliação bélica de Chávez] tem um efeito de intimidar vizinhos, e democracias na região precisam ser capazes de responder a isso de uma forma que ajude a reduzir esse tipo de efeito."
Ele defendeu a atuação diplomática no caso, especialmente junto à Organização dos Estados Americanos.
Chávez defende uma aliança contra as influências norte-americanas. Washington o acusa de ser um ditador em potencial que minou a democracia venezuelana.
