2010 FIFA World Cup simulation using Elo Ratings
By request
According to the Elo ratings, Spain will win the World Cup, defeating Brazil after PSO. England third, after a PSO win against Germany.
You can check the list of probable results. These are not my probable results, but the most likely results generated using the Elo ratings.
Tie-breakers:
- goal difference - that's actually never used, since the only win by more than a goal is Brazil - Korea DPR 4 - 0
- Elo rating - that's why Mexico tops group A, Korea Republic comes second in group B and so on. Japan and Cameroon are still tied even using the Elo ratings, but it doesn't matter in the end.
In the KO stage, if the most likely result is a draw, the team with the higher Elo rating will win after PSO.
Group A
11/Jun South Africa - Mexico 2
11/Jun Uruguay - France X
16/Jun South Africa - Uruguay 2
17/Jun France - Mexico X
22/Jun France - South Africa 1
22/Jun Mexico - Uruguay X
Mexico 5, France 5, Uruguay 5, South Africa 0
Group B
12/Jun Korea Republic - Greece X
12/Jun Argentina - Nigeria 1
17/Jun Argentina - Korea Republic 1
17/Jun Greece - Nigeria X
22/Jun Greece - Argentina 2
22/Jun Nigeria - Korea Republic X
Argentina 9, Korea Republic 2, Greece 2, Nigeria 2
Group C
12/Jun England - USA 1
13/Jun Algeria - Slovenia 2
18/Jun Slovenia - USA X
18/Jun England - Algeria 1
23/Jun USA - Algeria 1
23/Jun Slovenia - England 2
England 9, USA 4, Slovenia 4, Algeria 0
Group D
13/Jun Serbia - Ghana 1
13/Jun Germany - Australia 1
18/Jun Germany - Serbia X
19/Jun Ghana - Australia X
23/Jun Australia - Serbia 2
23/Jun Ghana - Germany 2
Germany 7, Serbia 7, Australia 1, Ghana 1
Group E
14/Jun Netherlands - Denmark 1
14/Jun Japan - Cameroon X
19/Jun Netherlands - Japan 1
19/Jun Cameroon - Denmark X
24/Jun Cameroon - Netherlands 2
24/Jun Denmark - Japan X
Netherlands 9, Denmark 2, Cameroon 2, Japan 2
Group F
14/Jun Italy - Paraguay 1
15/Jun New Zealand - Slovakia X
20/Jun Slovakia - Paraguay X
20/Jun Italy - New Zealand 1
24/Jun Paraguay - New Zealand 1
24/Jun Slovakia - Italy 2
Italy 9, Paraguay 4, Slovakia 2, New Zealand 1
Group G
15/Jun Côte d'Ivoire - Portugal X
15/Jun Brazil - Korea DPR 1
20/Jun Brazil - Côte d'Ivoire 1
21/Jun Portugal - Korea DPR 1
25/Jun Korea DPR - Côte d'Ivoire 2
25/Jun Portugal - Brazil 2
Brazil 9, Portugal 4, Côte d'Ivoire 4, Korea DPR 0
Group H
16/Jun Honduras - Chile 2
16/Jun Spain - Switzerland 1
21/Jun Chile - Switzerland 1
21/Jun Spain - Honduras 1
25/Jun Chile - Spain 2
25/Jun Switzerland - Honduras X
Spain 9, Chile 6, Switzerland 1, Honduras 1
Round of 16
26/Jun Mexico - Korea Republic 1
26/Jun England - Serbia X England PSO
27/Jun Germany - USA 1
27/Jun Argentina - France X Argentina PSO
28/Jun Netherlands - Paraguay 1
28/Jun Brazil - Chile 1
29/Jun Italy - Denmark 1
29/Jun Spain - Portugal 1
Quarter-finals
02/Jul Netherlands - Brazil X Brazil PSO
02/Jul Mexico - England X England PSO
03/Jul Argentina - Germany X Germany PSO
03/Jul Italy - Spain 2
Semi-finals
06/Jul Brazil - England 1
07/Jul Germany - Spain 2
Match for third place
10/Jul England - Germany X England PSO
Final
11/Jul Brazil - Spain X Spain PSO
