Brazil, India Hold Fate of Gripen, Other Jets
By andrew chuter
Published: 1 June 2009
LONDON - Upcoming decisions by Brazil and India on fighter aircraft could make or break the future of two of the world's combat aircraft manufacturers, according to a senior executive at Gripen International.
The likely contenders to hit the exit button in the next few years if they don't secure one of the orders will be Boeing, Dassault Aviation, MiG or Gripen-builder Saab itself, said Bob Kemp, Gripen's senior vice president for international sales and marketing.
"If you look today, there are seven fighter-jet manufacturers in the world. My view is that in the next three to five years, there is probably only going to be five," Kemp told reporters during a briefing May 19.
"I'm putting my money on MiG [as one of the victims] because they don't have a home market any more as Sukhoi has won all the Russian deals in the last 10 years. India is the last throw of the dice for them, and then the question is: Who is going to be the other one?"
He ruled out Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin and Sukhoi as potential casualties and said it would be "either us, Dassault or Boeing who will opt out of the export market. I think whoever wins or loses in Brazil and India will determine how things fall."
Kemp's view didn't find much support among rival manufacturers.
A spokesman for Dassault said the French plane-maker's plans for its Mirage were not at risk.
"It's not true. For Dassault, it is not a case of win or die, but maybe it is for some of our competitors," the spokesman said.
He said the company has orders for Rafales out to at least 2020, and that the French Air Force would eventually order more development for a midlife upgrade. He also said Rafale was pursuing its first export victory in the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland, as well as in Brazil and India. In late May, media reports quoted UAE officials as saying that progress was being made on negotiations to buy Rafales to replace about 60 Mirage 2000-9s.
Boeing officials declined to be drawn into the debate, beyond noting that the company had secured an order for the F/A-18 Super Hornet in Australia and was pursuing opportunities across the globe.
Several industry executives agreed that Saab likely needed a big order to help complete development of the next-generation Gripen, noting that the Swedish jet had taken a heavy knock when the Norwegians chose the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group, said that of all the Western fighter manufacturers, Saab is "uniquely vulnerable."
New production will end in 2012 unless an expected order for a further six Gripens for the Thai Air Force is firmed up. A number of aircraft are also being rebuilt to the latest standard for the Swedish Air Force, which will help retain capabilities beyond 2012.
"Gripen is facing a critical moment. A weak home market and a limited export order book mean that they have another 18 to 24 months to find customers. Eurofighter has a few years beyond that at least, and Rafale should make it to 2018 or beyond," Aboulafia said.
Still, he said, the Europeans are probably living on borrowed time as prime combat aircraft producers, particularly with JSF's fortunes improving.
Not so long ago, Aboulafia forecast that the F-35 will eventually do to the European industry what the F-16 failed to do - kill it.
"I still agree with my statement. JSF is as much about [U.S.] industrial policy as it is an aircraft program," he said.
And even Boeing's days are numbered as a fighter manufacturer, the analyst said.
"They have got the better part of the next decade to make some serious money out of the F-15 and F/A-18, but beyond that, there is nothing," Aboulafia said. "They could push the production line out to 2018-2020 if they are successful in the export market. But like the Europeans, they are wrong to place too much confidence on filling the gap with UCAV [unmanned combat aerial vehicle] production. The numbers required are just not going to be of the same order."
Busy Times
For now, however, fighter executives say they have rarely been so busy responding to requests for proposals or information, even though the economic crisis has slowed down some would-be purchasers such as Romania and Croatia.
Saab's Kemp said the list of possible customers for the Gripen include Switzerland, several Balkan countries, Denmark, the Netherlands, and even countries such as Qatar, Mexico, Estonia and others.
But he also said fighter makers need to win in strategically important markets where order numbers will eventually top more than 50 aircraft. India is part-way through what is currently the world's largest fighter export competition: 126 aircraft plus options that could bring the total to 250 to 300 aircraft, Kemp said. Contenders include Dassault's Rafale, the Boeing F/A-18, the Gripen NG (Next Generation), Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin's F-16, and the Russian Aircraft Corp.'s MiG-35.
Unconfirmed reports emerged in May that Rafale had been ejected from the Indian competition but that Dassault was mounting a revised bid with French government assistance.
Kemp said the Indian procurement process is running about three times slower than it should.
"My best guess is it will take seven years from request for proposals to contract signature. It's a big country and a lot of people have a say. I don't see a contract for at least three or four years," he said. "The Indians are aiming for an operational date of 2014 but our view is that 2020 is more realistic."
For Brazil, the requirement is 36 "leading to 120 or maybe 150 with attrition buys," he said.
Gripen, F/A-18 and Rafale are the contenders. Brazil is on track to make a decision later this year.
"If you secure Brazil or India, you are not going to disappear for the next 10 years at least. If you don't win one of those, the question then is: Where do you find the other markets that are big enough to sustain future developments?" he said. "You can live on small orders, but there is no doubt you need strategic markets to really be able to project yourself. If you want to be around for development of the next-generation aircraft, you need a secure and broad customer base."
One way Saab is wooing Brazil and India is by describing how helping to develop the next-generation Swedish fighter could help them eventually build fighters of their own, possibly alongside South Africa and Sweden.
"We are talking about 10 years from now, so it's hard to predict where we will be," he said.
Similar talks in 2007 with South Korea about cooperating on a next-generation twin-engine fighter have been shelved, he said.
Another way is by offering the new Selex-developed active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and new-generation MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. Neither is subject to U.S. export regulations.
Kemp said the AESA radar's performance is astonishing.
"Without question, it will give us a huge lift in the marketplace," he said. "If you look at what the U.S. offers on the export market, this is in a different league."
A development radar is due to fly on the Gripen NG test aircraft later this year.
Boeing officials noted that the Raytheon APG-79 AESA radar carried by its Super Hornets is already operational. They also said it and offered lower development and operational risks than the competitor sensor still on the drawing board.
E-mail:
achuter@defensenews.com.
![8-]](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif "Cool"){kind=icon}
Frase duríssima: "(...)the Europeans are probably living on borrowed time as prime combat aircraft producers(...)". Para os que não entendem Inglês, significa "os europeus estão vivendo de tempo emprestado como fabricantes principais de aeronaves de combate". Eu a contestaria baseado em sua continuação: "(...)particularly with JSF's fortunes improving. Not so long ago, Aboulafia forecast that the F-35 will eventually do to the European industry what the F-16 failed to do - kill it." Com a Crise cada vez pior no hemisfério norte, o dólar agonizante e com os EUA (estes sim, vivendo "de tempo emprestado", em termos econômicos) nas últimas, não apostaria um tostão no F-35, pemissa principal da linha de raciocínio do Mr. Richard Aboulafia...