#DXB11: Turkey starts next generation fighter
By Stephen Trimble on November 15, 2011 2:11 PM
Turkey wants to build a next generation fighter, too.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-d ... gener.html
The Ministry of Defense awarded a contract to Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in August to complete an 18-month feasibility study on producing a new fighter and trainer called TFX after 2023.
In the crush of Dubai Air Show events, we managed to arrange a roughly 5-minute long interview about the TFX study with Ali Yilmaz Guldogan, TAI's vice president of strategy and cooperation programmes.
The study has to answer a lot of questions.
These include: Will the fighter have one engine or two? Canted tails or vertical? TAI still doesn't know, but the study will determine, Guldogan said. The study also is tackling industrial issues. Will Turkey lead development by itself, or join a development programme with South Korea, Brazil or another country? In early 2013, TAI will submit a report with recommendations to the Ministry of Defense, which will make the final decisions, Guldogan said.
There was no time, alas, to ask Guldogan broader questions. Among them: Why does Turkey think it needs to build its own fighter?
The existence of TFX means Turkey has joined an interesting global trend. It is among several major nations with rising economic and political clout, but are forced to depend for combat aircraft upon the US, Russia and Western Europe. China, India and Japan have already developed their own military and commercial aircraft.
Now, South Korea, Brazil and Turkey seem to want to join the club.
We covered South Korea's KF-X programme extensively last month at the Seoul Air Show, which you can read about here.
Brazil, meanwhile, announced plans in 2009 to develop a "fifth-generation fighter" in 2025, using technologies transferred from the now-delayed F-X2 fighter contract.
Interestingly, Turkey has been linked as a possible development partner to both South Korea and Brazil. South Korea's Defense Acquisition Programme Administration (DAPA) announced that Turkey is likely to join the KF-X programme next year.
Eurofighter, meanwhile, predicted in a fighter market forecast released at the Seoul Air Show that Turkey could partner with Brazil instead.
Whatever Turkey decides to do, the TFX programme represents a remarkable -- and perhaps worrisome -- trend for the giants of the global industry for combat aircraft. Some of these giants may be forgiven, then, for thinking that a few of their most reliable customers are making some bad decisions.
"I think there are a lot of places that are overly ambitious," said Jeff Kohler, Boeing vice president of business development and former chief of the US Defense Security and Cooperation Agency (DSCA). "I don't mean that in the negative way that they can't do it. How many fighter entries are possible? This market is getting smaller and not bigger."
South Korea has budgeted $5 billion to develop a next generation fighter in about 10 years -- a cost projection that some Western industry officials is woefully unrealistic. "This is not a game for the weak of heart," Kohler said. It took US industry 10 years and billions of dollars simply to develop active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, he added.
Paul Oliver, Boeing vice president of business development for the Middle East and Africa, said he believes that such programmes are really attempts by national industries to bring themselves up the value chain in the global aerospace market. The countries do not stand a good chance of making a competitive fighter, he said.