http://www.acig.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2382
- AIM-7 (again depending on the war, period of time, version, and user): anywhere between 9 and 35%
- AIM-120 (depending on the actual number of missiles fired) between 35 and 55%
Na 3ª página:
Tom Cooper escreveu:But OK, for the sake of this discussion, let us take a look at what is known about the combat career of the AIM-120.
* The first kill, scored in December 1992, reportedly required two AIM-120s to down one MiG-25.
* There are reports about at least single other firing and a possible kill scored in January 1993, again against an Iraqi MiG, but no confirmation for this.
* The (confirmed) second and third kill were scored in February 1994: both by a single F-16C that fired two AIM-120s to down two Serbian J-21s.
* The next combat deployment reportedly occurred in January 1999, when USAF F-15s and USN F-14s engaged a total of 12 Iraqi MiGS in a series of brief, high-speed battles. According to media reports, a total of three AIM-120s were fired, none of which hit.
* Allready during Allied Force, between March and May 1999, many more AIM-120s were fired:
24 March:
- Maj. Arizanov (MiG-29) was obviously shot down by one AIM-120, but it is possible that two were fired at him
- Maj. Ilic (MiG-29) was hit by one AIM-120 but managed to land safely
- but, Capt. Shower needed at least three AIM-120s to down Maj. Nikolic (MiG-29)
- Maj. Kulacin evaded at least one AIM-120 (perhaps also one AIM-7M)
- Maj. Milutinovic was shot down by one AIM-120
26 March
- Maj. Peric evaded one AIM-120 fired at him, but was shot down by the other
- Capt. Radosavljevic was shot down and killed by one AIM-120.
4 May
- Lt.Col. Pavlovic was targeted by two AIM-120s, one of which might have scored the kill.
So, if I haven't missed any of the kills or combat firings of the AIM-120s, this would mean a probable total expenditure of between 20 and 25 AIM-120s. The total number of attempted firings remains unknown.
Total number of confirmed kills: 8. At least two targets were damaged.
With other words, this would mean a pk of less than 50%.
Tom Cooper escreveu:The "story" about the MiG-25 which evaded F-15s occurred in 1999, and this engagement was between the USN F-14s (from VF-2) and IrAF MiG-25s. The F-15s engaged a pair of Foxbats, and missed them with a total of four AIM-120s and three AIM-7Ms. Subsequently, two other Foxbats or MiG-23s were engaged by two F-14Ds, both of which fired one AIM-54D. Both Phoenixes are considered to have missed, although later it became known that one MiG-23 crashed during that engagement - supposedly due to fuel starvation.
Quanto ao 1º ponto, sinceramente agora não posso precisar onde vi isso. Acho que ocorreu nas fases finais do conflicto, aquando da fuga de vários aparelhos iraquianos para o Irão. Mas não eram lançamentos à toa : eram lançamentos contra alvos a alguma distância e a afastarem-se a grande velocidade (como os MiG-25 que deram bastante trabalho) e portanto a probabilidade de atingir era logo de início mais reduzida do que num confronto frontal.
Isto para dizer que a Pk não é um valor absoluto pela qual um míssil possa ser julgado apenas, como aliás o Tom Cooper mostra muito bem quando diz:
IMHO, in total this does not mean anything. That's really pure statistics, then if you're hanging so much of this kind of data, you can only conclude that the R-98/AA-3 Anab is the best missile ever built. Out of two fired (by a V-PVO Su-15TM, on 1 September 1983) at a Korean Boeing 747 - both hit, and the (passenger plane) target was 100% destroyed.
Quando encontrar mais alguma coisa digo.
Cumptos