Make in India fighter

[Penguin]

Buying India's new light fighter. Not another MMRCA fiasco, please


By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 11th Oct 16
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com.br/searc ... date=false

After the sorry compromise that was the Rafale fighter acquisition, the Indian Air Force (IAF) last week went back to the start line, initiating the purchase of a light fighter to replace the MiG-21s, MiG-23s and MiG-27s that once formed the bulk of its fleet, and still constitute one-third of it. Since Indian defence planners (assuming the breed actually exists) seldom learn from others’ mistakes, they must at least learn from their failed project to acquire 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). Ironically, that too had started out 15 years ago as a programme to buy lots of light-to-medium fighters to replace the MiGs. The effort --- which would-be vendors obsequiously lauded as “the world’s most professionally run fighter acquisition programme” --- crashed in flames last year, with the decision to buy 36 Rafales. Inexplicably, the IAF has ended up with a small number of exorbitantly expensive fighters that would be criminally wasted on the combat roles the MiG fleet has played.

Even so, fleet shortages in the IAF are so dire --- 33-34 operational fighter squadrons, against the 45 needed to handle a collusive threat from China and Pakistan --- that we must welcome the Rafale buy, even though it has cost Euro 7.87 billion. True, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) Nashik delivers 12-13 Sukhoi-30MKIs each year; and its Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) production line in Bengaluru is slowly ramping up production. Yet, with the remaining 11 MiG-21 and MiG-27 squadrons retiring soon, the shortfall will remain. And since the Rafales will only start being delivered after three years, there is no room for delay or misjudgement.

It would be remembered that the air force began the MMRCA process on the right note, before the defence ministry put it into a downward dive from which it never recovered. In 2000-01, the IAF --- pleased with the Mirage 2000 after its accurate bombing of Pakistani mountain-top positions during the 1999 Kargil conflict --- proposed buying the Mirage 2000 production line from Dassault, which was closing it down to build the new Rafale. The plan was to transfer the line to HAL, which would build the well-regarded Mirage 2000-9, an export version of the French Air Force’s Mirage 2000-5 Mark 2. That was clearly the sensible thing to do. The IAF was familiar with the Mirage 2000; and had the training, maintenance and repair infrastructure, and had already developed Indian vendors for several sub-systems. Had the Mirage 2000 been chosen, the IAF would have had a highly capable, light, cheap fighter without complicating fleet logistics.

But that was not to be. Defence Minister George Fernandes, rattled by the Tehelka sting, decided (backed by the National Democratic Alliance cabinet) that single-vendor procurement from Dassault might invite further charges of corruption. So Fernandes played it safe by sending out a global tender to multiple vendors. The IAF, its pragmatism replaced by the starry-eyed prospect of flying the world’s best (and most expensive!) fighters, framed expansive requirements that brought six fighters into contention. The rest is depressing history.

The lessons from the MMRCA are clear. First, forswear bureaucratic and political caution in the national interest and quietly identify the best choice for India based on a matrix of performance, life-cycle cost, technology transfer and the strategic relationship with the vendor country --- rather than trying to identify, like in the past, the cheapest fighter that meets the IAF’s performance requirements. Politically motivated charges of corruption are inevitable, regardless of the integrity of the process; but larger political rewards lie in pushing through, in full public view, a badly needed acquisition that fills a gaping capability void. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, who has the confidence of a personally honest man, has already signalled that he can think boldly. Speaking on Doordarshan on April 13, 2015, soon after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced in Paris that India would buy 36 Rafales, Mr Parrikar stated: “It is wrong to do an MMRCA type deal using an RfP (competitive tender) model. You cannot compare different types of aircraft like the F/A-18, Eurofighter and Rafale. All three have different strengths and capabilities. All three are probably good enough planes… These important decisions need to be taken at government-to-government levels.”

Sadly, Mr Parrikar has disregarded his own advice while launching the light fighter acquisition. Like with the MMRCA, the letter of inquiry has been sent to numerous aerospace manufacturers, even those who do not have a single-engine, medium fighter to offer. When asked why, officials explained off-the-record that it was so that no vendor could later complain it was left out. This play-it-safe attitude is hardly suggestive of a purposive, focused, unapologetic procurement process to come.

In fact, only two firms need be approached: American behemoth, Lockheed Martin, and Swedish defence firm, Saab; both of whom have quality single-engine fighters to “Make in India”. The former has already pitched with the defence ministry to build a new Block 70 variant of its F-16 Super Viper. Saab, too, has offered to build the new Gripen E, which is scheduled to make its first flight this year.

While not much separates the two offers, Lockheed Martin clearly scores on one count, while Saab wins on other counts. Building the F-16 in India would strengthen the burgeoning US-India defence partnership, which is already creating skilled jobs in India. Choosing the Gripen, on the other hand, would bring in Swedish technologies in areas like the “airborne electronically scanned array” radar, which US export control regulations safeguard jealously. The Swedish dependency on any Indian partnership would allow New Delhi far greater leverage in bargaining for high technology than India could ever wield in Washington. Further, the Gripen E can be modified into an aircraft carrier borne fighter --- an option the F-16 does not have.

The final determinant must be: which relationship would impart greater impetus to indigenous fighter programmes like the Tejas and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft; and co-development programmes like the Indo-Russian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft. In making his choice, Mr Parrikar should bear in mind that a quick, decisive verdict would save three years of ministry file-pushing and fill in operational gaps that are unacceptable, given the tensions in South Asia.

[Penguin]

O potencial na Índia pode chegar a 300 unidades

India ready to buy over 200 combat jets, but they have to be 'Made in India'
Indian Air Force needs to make for sharply declining combat squadron strength, from the sanctioned 45 to current 32.

Aditya Aditya Bhat October 29, 2016 20:34 IST
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/india-ready-bu ... dia-701860

The Narendra Modi government is ready to buy single-engine combat jets that can give fillip to its fast depleting combat fleet strength, but they must toe the Prime Minister's pet project Make in India, where a foreign manufacturer will have to tie-up with a local partner and make the jets in India.

India could buy as many as 200 jets, which could eventually rise to 300 if the foreign manufacturer makes it in India, Reuters quoted IAF officials as saying. The deal, one of the biggest for the country, could be worth $13-$15 billion.

India faces trouble from two neighbours, China and Pakistan, though the sanctioned strength in case of two-pronged attack is 45 squadrons of fighters, its current combat squadron has come down to 32 squadrons of fighters, which is the lowest in a decade.

The IAF is also dealing with the phasing out of Russia-made MiG 21 squadrons, which is expected to bring it down to 31 squadron strength. So, in order to give impetus to the fighter squadron, the Central government signed a deal with France in August to buy high-end Rafale twin-engine jets from Dassault, worth $8.8 billion.

The Rafale deal also include weapons package Meteor radar-guided Beyond Visual Range (BVR) missile and Scalp long-range air to ground missiles. But the 36 jets fall short of its required strength to counter any threat from two theatres.

PM Modi is, however, looking to kick-start India's nascent defence manufacturing industry by making foreign companies build in India.

Two companies have shown interest -- US aerospace major Lockheed Martin and Swedish aerospace major Saab.
Lockheed Martin has said that it is ready to set up production line for its single-engine F-16 fighter jets in India. The US giant has also said that it is also ready to export the jets that are made in India.

Similarly, Saab has said that it is also ready to set up production line for single-engine Gripen fighter jets.
"The immediate shortfall is 200. That would be the minimum we would be looking at," an officer was quoted as saying by Reuters. Building in India also implies transfer of technology, something that many have detested from.

Defence Ministry Manohar Parrikar has written to companies asking them if they are ready to set up shop and the extent of transfer of technology, said a government source.

The Modi government had to cancel the previous government's MMRCA deal, known as the mother of the deals for 126 Rafale fighters being made in India after the two sides could not agree on the terms for producing them in India. The government instead had to go in for only 36 of them, which will be arriving in fly-away conditions.

Moreover, the indigenously made LCA Tejas, is further being delayed with only two aircraft being handed over to Indian Air Force and its maker, HAL, still conducting tests on several prototypes.

Saab's Gripen offer
Saab on the other hand is not only ready to set up Gripen fighter jet production line but is also ready to help build the local aviation industry.

"We are very experienced in transfer of technology – our way of working involves extensive cooperation with our partners to establish a complete ecosystem, not just an assembly line," said Jan Widerstrom, Chairman and Managing Director, Saab India Technologies.

Widerstrom also confirmed of receiving a letter from the Indian government seeking a fourth generation fighter. The facility needs to produce at least 100 planes, said a source close to company.

Lockheed Martin's F-16 offer
Lockheed Martin too confirmed of getting a letter from defence ministry and said that it offered F-16 fighter jets. It also said that it offered to transfer the entire production line of F-16 to India.

"Exclusive F-16 production in India would make India home to the world's only F-16 production facility, a leading exporter of advanced fighter aircraft, and offer Indian industry the opportunity to become an integral part of the world's largest fighter aircraft supply chain," said Abhay Paranjape, National Executive for Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Business Development in India.

Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet offer
Earlier this year in March, reports emerged that Boeing has offered twin-engine F/A-18 Super Hornets under the "Make in India" framework of the Indian government. The F/A-18 jets were also competitors at the previously cancelled MMRCA deal.

US defence cooperation
US dislodged India's traditional military supplier, Russia as the top arms supplier in recent years. India and US are also fast expanding their military ties with India ordering military hardware like Apache and Chinook helicopters. India is also looking to buy BAE Systems' M777 Howitzers.

"We have never had control over technology. This represents the most serious attempt to build a domestic base. A full or a near-full tech transfer lays the ground for further development," said M Matheswaran, a retired Indian air marshal and former adviser at HAL to Reuters.

[Penguin]

O potencial na Índia pode chegar a 300 unidades

Curioso como essas expectativas de custos geralmente são subestimadas.
No MMRCA os indianos estimavam em 2007 que 126 caças do MMRCA custariam USD 12bi. O MMRCA foi cancelado porque, segundo estimativas da imprensa local, o custo dos 126 Rafale chegava ao exorbitante valor de USD 28 a 30bi (http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-dn ... ty-1957107).
Agora os Indianos fecharam a compra de 36 Rafale off the shelf pela bagatela de USD 8,8bi. Ou seja, o mesmo valor que a imprensa brasileira vazou como custo da proposta da Dassault para a FAB no FX2 e o dobro da proposta da Saab (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/bra ... ram-04179/).
Agora, nesse novo programa Make in India, a expectativa de custo varia de USD13 a 15bi para 200 caças, ou seja UISD75mi/unidade. Isso é uma expectativa totalmente irreal, pois por esse valor eles não conseguem comprar nem o Tejas MK1, cujo custo recentemente anunciado para uma encomenda de 83 unidade foi de USD7,5bi ou USD90bi/unidade.

NEW DELHI ORDERS 83 HAL TEJAS LIGHT COMBAT AIRCRAFT
Daily News, Nov 7, 2016
http://quwa.org/2016/11/07/new-delhi-or ... -aircraft/

The Government of India has recently issued an order for 83 Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Tejas lightweight multi-role fighters, 15 HAL Light Combat Helicopters (LCH), and 494 T-90 main battle tanks.

The total value of the acquisition will amount to roughly $10 billion U.S. (Rs. 67,000 crore). NDTV reported that the HAL Tejas order will cost $7.5 billion, the T-90s will cost $2.02 billion, and the LCHs $436 million.

Aqui no Brasil, o FX2 começou com um expectativa de que os caças custariam USD2,2bi...

[Penguin]

Ofensiva da Boeing...


Only America can help India build fifth-generation fighters: Boeing


By Ajai Shukla
St Louis, Missouri, USA
Business Standard, 18th Nov 16
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com.br/

Following the lead of Swedish company, Saab, Boeing has linked its offer to build a fighter aircraft in India with the promise of assistance in designing and building an Indian fifth-generation (Gen-5) fighter.

In a presentation to the Indian media in St Louis, Missouri, where Boeing builds the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter, Boeing’s Dan Gillian, outlined a detailed roadmap from the Super Hornet to India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), the Gen-5 fighter that the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) hopes to build.

Boeing’s plan involves first setting up an Indian factory and the aerospace eco-system to build the Block II Super Hornet, which will then be improved into the “Advanced Super Hornet”. That infrastructure and design capability would give Indian designers the instruments to build the AMCA.

Boeing’s India chief, Pratyush Kumar, hardly disguises his scepticism of Saab’s promise to help India in designing the AMCA.

“America is the only country that has actually designed and manufactured stealthy, Gen-5 fighters”, points out Kumar. “Stealth design is not a science, it is an art that is developed only after years of trial and error. Boeing has actually mastered that art while co-designing the F-22 fighter.”

Boeing is not in direct competition with Saab, which is pitching to build 100-200 single-engine fighters in India. Instead, Boeing will compete with European manufacturers, Dassault, and Eurofighter, to establish a factory that will churn out a similar number of twin-engine fighters.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has already solicited interest from global aerospace vendors in the single-engine category, and a similar request is expected soon for building twin-engine fighters.

Kumar claims the F/A-18E/F, which was designed in the 1990s, is a decade more contemporary than its rivals like the Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which started being designed in the 1980s.

“The Super Hornet is sometimes confused with the older F/A-18A/B Hornet fighter, which dates back to the 1970s. While they are superficially similar, the Super Hornet’s brand new design incorporates a high degree of stealth. For American, the Super Hornet was a stepping stone to the F-35, and it can be a stepping stone to the AMCA for India,” argues Kumar.

Boeing’s new Super Hornet factory in St Louis is churning out two Super Hornets each month for the US Navy, which will continue inducting the fighter well into the 2020s.

Each of America’s 9-12 aircraft carriers (the final number will depend upon President Donald Trump’s defence policy) will embark four squadrons of Super Hornets until 2028, when the F-35 Lightning II starts being inducted in significant numbers.

By 2028, each carrier will have one squadron of the F-35, and by 2035 there will be two squadrons each of the Super Hornet and the F-35.

“But the fighter will remain in service out to the 2040s and, until then, we will be developing upgrades every two years as part of a continuous development programme”, says Gillian. The first improvement on the cards is an advanced cockpit system in 2018-19.

Also being developed, even without US Navy sanction and funding, are “conformal fuel tanks” that will extend the fighter’s 1,000-kilometre strike range by 200 kilometres; and a more powerful and fuel-economical F-414 engine that will increase the thrust by 18 per cent.

He says the Super Hornet is highly regarded by the US Navy not just because it is a capable and easy-to-maintain fighter, but also because it is the cheapest to operate in the entire US fighter fleet, even cheaper than the single-engine F-16.

“The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) rates the F/A-18E/F as the most economical fighter to operate on a “cost per hour” basis”, says Gillian.

The challenge for Boeing will be to build a supplier chain in India, like the one that feeds into the Super Hornet line at St Louis. This consists of 800 vendors in 44 states, which employ 60,000 people.

Boeing’s current Super Hornet vendors in India include Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), which builds electrical panels; while Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is building wire bundles and gun bay doors. Smaller companies are also joining the supply chain, including Rossell and SASMOS, which supply electrical equipment.

(Broadsword was in the US at the invitation of The Boeing Company)