Fórum Defesa Brasil

pt escreveu: Quando Hitler invadiu a Polónia e de repente se viu em guerra com a França e a Inglaterra irritou-se porque os seus serviços secretos lhe tinham garantido que os ingleses e os franceses não fariam nada pela Polónia.

Crimean Upheaval
1. Previous events when governmental buildings in Simferopol were captured by unknown militants haven't become a surprise. Actually clashes with pro-maidan activists have completely revealed amount of their forces and their tactics so they were successfully neutralized therefore there was no reaction on capture.
2. According to his sources those militants were "ours"(specification is not given - possibly they are anti-maidan defense groups who came from Sevastopol). Their actions resulted in disruption of forces loyal to Kiev rioters and ascension to power of people who are friendly to Russia.
3. What has become a total surprise is a return of Yanukovich (possibly cunning plan of Kremlin). That was totally unexpected by rioters. The arrival of Yanukovich leads to the following possible outcomes:
1) He proves himself as legitimate president of Ukraine according to Ukrainian and international legislation.
2) He could shift the blame for dire economic and financial situation on rioters as they have taken all measures to escalate chaos by refusing to follow bilateral agreement signed previously.
3) His return will influence Ukrainian police and army drastically. Witnesses tell that some units were preparing to repel Russian invasion that seemed inevitable according to hysterical claims coming from Kiev and Europe. But this return + after long negotiations between chief of Ukrainian joint staff admiral Yuri Ilin and newly-elected pro-russian mayor of Sevatopol Andrey Chaly made Ukrainian army to decide that no violent methods would be taken against population of Crimea.
4. Ukrainian security service (SBU) completely lost sight of aforementioned activities. While its spec-ops forces have been roaming through Crimea searching for russian APC and marines pro-russian protesters in Simferopol were preparing juridical base for change of power so russian intervention was not necessary. Most probably russians could intervene if Ukrainian army or SBU would have taken hostile actions but such scenario would has ended with big blood and immediate secession of Crimea from Ukraine. That would have been similar to actions conducted by Mikhail Saakshavili related to South Ossetia in 2008 but current rulers of Kiev do not have any legal authority over Ukrainian troops in Crimea and in Ulraine and those who supposedly under their control are completely uncertain about status of these rulers.
5. The whole aforementioned Crimean upheaval ended with de facto complete secession of Crimea from rioters in Kiev. Aksenov, new prime-minister of Crimea, has completely distanced from maidanuts in Kiev and claimed that his president is Yanukovich. Yanuk may be son of a b**ch but he is legitimate son of a b**ch and maidanuts are not. From the other hand Yanukovich does not have any real political power therefore Aksenov becomes the real and formal leader of Crimea and Yanuk is a mediator between him and Russia.
Besides if presidential elections are really conducted 25th of May until this day economic, social and financial situation in whole Ukraine will degrade tremendously so non-surprisingly Crimea will vote for secession and independence from Kiev. And as Yanuk has no real power he will not become an obstacle. Rioters will not be able to take any force measures especially if Crimean police and SBU swear their loyalty to Aksenov. Moreover, cities of Crimea are forming anti-maidan militia non-stop, police is taking sides with pro-russian forces and outlawed Berkut operatives are finding safe haven in peninsula. These actors have not even begun to take into account possible actions of Russia that, in addition, could take the same measures of protection of russian population and its citizens in Crimea as it did in 2008 in South Ossetia if Kiev rioters go rampant.
Most importantly the resistance in Crimea could escalate to Eastern Ukraine where anti-maidan protests are extremely tangled by backstabbing actions of their current officials who have eagerly begun to side with new powers in Kiev.
Finally it must be recorded that maidanuts become unable for serious actions as soon as they meet organized resistance. The more people say NO the less aggressive and insolent maidanuts become.
6. Regarding Crimean Tatars: their supposedly total pro-maidan position is a nonsense. Pro-maidan position is held by "official" Mejlis but his active supporters are the radical minority of Tatars. Most of them are outraged by another one Maidan and new crooks and thieves replacing the previous crooks and thieves. Moreover, they do not have negative attitude to Russia like Mejlis officials. Same as for the general population of Ukraine: the more Tatars say NO the less influence radicals and organizations such as Hizbut Tahrir have.
7. For Crimean elites promised financial assistance from Russia(5 bln USD) is much more attractive than EU AA cherished by rioters and there are serious doubts that power in Kiev is able to significantly improve general situation in the country so it would seem as interesting as russian proposal.
If Aksenov does not make grave mistakes the defeat of maidanuts in Crimea is inevitable.
8. Crimean population still has a lot to do in order to reinforce anti-maidan resistance. The matter that must be emphasized is that Sevastopol's population itself has made a decision to fight with rioters and there were no actions, conspiracies or import of force made by foreign power. People of Crimea remember their history well enough so they are absolutely against nationalists, bandits, chauvinists, rioters and fascists. Now it is up to all other regions to evaluate their attitude to the coup d'état in Kiev.

pt escreveu:Têm a legitimidade da força, mais nada

pt escreveu:A legitimidade da Democracia e da Liberdade não pode ser comparada à legitimidade da brutalidade assassina de nazistas e comunistas.

De qualquer das formas, nada do que Israel fez ou que a Inglaterra fez, altera o facto de os russos terem uma legitimidade inquinada na Crimeia.
A terra foi roubada pelos russos, como grande parte do império.

Aguardemos os desenvolvimentos...

suntsé escreveu:

pt escreveu:A legitimidade da Democracia e da Liberdade não pode ser comparada à legitimidade da brutalidade assassina de nazistas e comunistas.

De qualquer das formas, nada do que Israel fez ou que a Inglaterra fez, altera o facto de os russos terem uma legitimidade inquinada na Crimeia.
A terra foi roubada pelos russos, como grande parte do império.

Aguardemos os desenvolvimentos...

Nossa quanta bobagem, nem um país tem o direito de bombardear ou promover guerras civis, mesmo sendo uma democracia, porque continua sendo uma atitude criminosa.