Fórum Defesa Brasil

Adam Bourne Smith escreveu: Discussão irrelevante.

A UE é uma união monetária, um bloco econômico com ambições de união política. Portanto, todos estão no mesmo barco e a solidariedade, espírito de grupo e regras comuns são uma necessidade para que que a união se sustente. Se isso não existe é melhor matar o euro e deixar cada um por si. Enquanto se discute o nhe-nhe de quem é o culpado, quem deve ajudar quem, de deveres e obrigações, quem se beneficiou e perdeu, quem é o fod%$# e o coitadinho, a zona toda vai para o buraco.

Dandolo Bourne Bagetti escreveu:P.S. Continuo lendo, mas não apareço na discussão das aéreas por um tempo longo e indefinido.

March 4, 2010
Traders Seek Out the Next Greece in an Ailing Europe
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and GRAHAM BOWLEY

Is Spain the next Greece? Or Italy? Or Portugal?

Even as Greece pledged anew on Wednesday to rein in its runaway budget deficit, briefly easing the anxiety over its perilous finances, traders on both sides of the Atlantic weighed the risks — and potential rewards — posed by the groaning debts of other European governments.

While investors welcomed news that Athens would raise taxes and cut spending by $6.5 billion this year, analysts warned the moves might not be enough to avert a bailout for Greece or to contain the crisis shaking Europe and its common currency, the euro.

Indeed, some banks and hedge funds have already begun to turn their attention to other indebted nations, particularly Portugal, Spain, Italy and, to a lesser degree, Ireland.

The role of such traders has become increasingly controversial in Europe and the United States. The Justice Department’s antitrust division is examining whether at least four hedge funds colluded on a bet against the euro last month.

“If the problems of Greece aren’t addressed now, there is a risk the market will focus on the next weakest link in the chain,” said Jim Caron, global head of interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley.

Whatever the outcome in Athens, the debt crisis in Europe threatens to tip the financial, as well as political, balance of power across the Continent. With Germany and France emerging as the most likely rescuers, leaders in Berlin and Paris could end up dictating fiscal policy in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.

And in the months ahead, fears about the growing debt burden elsewhere in Europe are likely to return, according to investors and strategists. That is particularly worrying given that Western European countries must raise more than half a trillion dollars this year to refinance existing debts and cover their widening budget gaps.

The way fear can spread from capital to capital reminds Mr. Caron of how the American financial crisis played out. “What people are doing in the markets is no different from what they did with the banks,” he said. “First it was Bear Stearns, then it was Lehman Brothers and so on. That’s what people are worried about.”

France and Germany are emerging as the crucial backers of any lifeline for Greece, but they have slow growth and budget troubles of their own — deficits equaling 6.3 percent of gross domestic product in Germany and 7.5 percent in France. And among voters in both countries, “there is very little appetite for rescues,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist for Unicredit.

The most vulnerable country after Greece, some analysts say, is Spain, which has been mired in a deep recession. Facing an unemployment rate of 20 percent, a budget gap of more than 10 percent of gross domestic product, and an economy expected to shrink by 0.4 percent this year, Madrid has little wiggle room if investors shun an expected 85 billion euros in new bond offerings this year.

Spain’s neighbor Portugal is also vulnerable. Large budget and trade deficits, combined with a shortage of domestic savings, leave Portugal dependent on foreign investors. And, as in Greece, there may be little political will to slash spending or raise taxes.

That’s in sharp contrast to Ireland, which had been a source of anxiety last year. New austerity measures, including a government hiring freeze and public sector wage cuts, have put it in a stronger position as it raises 19 billion euros this year.

The Italian government is also heavily indebted — it has more than $2 trillion in total exposure — but it is also in a slightly stronger position than Spain or Portugal because its economy is expected to grow by 0.9 percent this year and 1.0 percent next year. In addition, its budget is not as far out of whack, with the deficit this year expected to equal 5.4 percent of G.D.P.

According to Kenneth J. Heinz of Hedge Fund Research, the big hedge funds are now evaluating the response by other European countries in extending a lifeline to Greece before they probe weaknesses and opportunities in other countries.

Hedge funds, banks and other institutions are still wagering on a drop in the euro as well as the British pound.

Those trades have been controversial for months in Europe. But the debate shifted to the United States on Wednesday, after it emerged that at least four hedge funds had been asked by the Justice Department to turn over trading records and other documents. That request followed a dinner in New York last month where, among several other subjects, representatives of some of these hedge funds discussed betting against the euro.

The funds that received the letters — Greenlight Capital, SAC Capitol Advisors, Paulson & Company and Soros Fund Management — are among the best-known names in the hedge fund universe. Greenlight and SAC declined to comment, as did the Justice Department. Paulson & Company, whose representatives did not attend the dinner, also declined to comment.

In a statement, Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros Fund Management, denied any wrongdoing and said, “It has become commonplace to direct attention toward George Soros whenever currency markets are in the news.”

The dinner, in a private room at the Park Avenue Townhouse restaurant in Manhattan on Feb. 2, involved about 20 people and was characterized as an “ideas round table” by several who attended. But people present at the dinner or knowledgeable about the discussion said the idea of shorting the euro occupied only a few minutes of the conversation.

The presentation on the euro, by SAC, lasted less than five minutes, according to these people.

Notes provided by one of the firms that attended the dinner summarized the discussion on the euro state: “Greece is important but not that important; instead you have to start thinking about every other country. What’s after Greece? Spain, Ireland, Portugal.”

James S. Chanos, a hedge fund investor who has not been making bets on the euro, defended the positions taken by hedge funds, calling the inquiries into their activities “witch hunts.”

“Hedge funds and short-sellers are being blamed for the failings of other people,” he said. Nevertheless, the anxiety in Europe is reflected on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where trading in futures on the euro soared to a record $60 billion in February — up 71 percent from a year ago.

“The Greek story is putting downward pressure on the euro,” said Derek Sammann, a managing director at the CME. According to CME data, hedge funds are in their most bearish position in a decade in shorting the euro, said Mary Ann Bartels of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“They have been short for a while, but in the past two weeks have really pressed it,” she said.

The Great Cheat
The crisis has not been contained but banks were showered with cheap credit from the European Central Bank (ECB) which adopted US style ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) to allow banks to borrow below inflation. Normally, this is for a bank like taking steroids without a side effect. Money for nothing: A dream come true for the most privileged of all privileged economic sectors. The last time Europe saw 1% interest rates must have been before the invention of charts.
But back to the Great Cheat: As it has turned out, Greece cheated to become a Euro member (with the help of Goldman Sachs.) As was the case with Bernie Madoff and whistleblowers futile attempts for 9 years to bring him to justice, the EU refused to notice warnings by European statistics office Eurostat ahead of Greece joining the Euro.
New allegations include Goldman Sachs and Italy as partners in fiscal crime.
We may indeed witness the breaking point of the Euro which currently hovers at 2010 lows. Heralding the theory that price/yield is the most important information in markets, the following graph shows that markets reflect the greed/fear thermometer very well.



GRAPH: Greece lied - and immediately got punished by bond markets with no end in sight. Since Greek manipulation of economic data become public its government jets the world to find refinancing for some €20 billion of government bonds becoming due in H1 2010. Chart courtesy of John Mauldin who has a lot more interesting data on 11 of the 16 Eurozone members here. By the way, Belgian debt appears to be overpriced taking into account that the political heart of Europe is entangled in a perpetual secessionist brawl along French/Flemish language borders.

Any political bailout solution for Greece would be a violation of the Lisbon Treaty. The ECB itself is a Eurozone controlled central bank but there are no guarantees behind it. Paid up capital for the ECB's experiment called Euro is €4 billion, divided proportionally among the members.

Pan-Europe Will Remain a Pipe Dream
2 decades of unification policy may get thrown out in the next few months. A look back into history produces enough evidence that nationalism always has its heydays in economic slumps.

Greece's recent venomous attack about the gold stolen by Nazi Germany in WW2 in the bailout talks is a tell-tale of what all Pan-European promoters neglect: With the exception of neutral Portugal and collaborating Mussolini-Italy theoretically all desperate EU members could re-open discussions on war damage reparations, throwing the continent back into the chaos of countless wars that dominated it until 1945. This issue has been ignored 65 years ago as it was unbearable reparation payments that crippled Germany after WW1 and led to the rise of Hitler after the fall of the hyperinflationary Weimar republic. I presume mankind does not want to go that way again...

At the current status quo - Europe being plainly in denial about the coming wave of sovereign defaults - political action has reduced itself to repetitive squabble, unmasking a blatant lack of understanding ongoing global shifts where power and money moves from West to East.

First strikes like in France's Total refineries demonstrate the potential fragility of Western lifestyle with a 10-day fuel reserve for Le Grand Nation. I have repeatedly warned about possible food supply disruptions. That could start with an empty car tank in front of your house. Greek car drivers can tell their stories of queuing for gas in Europe by now.

A Continent Fed Up With Banker's Bonuses
Burning cars from Athens to Berlin and Paris have had an effect. EU politicians finally wake up to see angry citizens fed up from a two and a half year diet of unlimited money for banks and bankers that begins to hit home hard.
Hungarian EU Commissioner for Social Affairs, Laszlo Andor, warned of social tensions last Monday in Brussels and picked out Austria as another irresponsibly acting Eurozone member hiding the true dimensions of a debt collapse of its CEE banking empire while burdening taxpayers with ever more debt. But more on that in my next post.
The rest of Europe's leaders spend their time conference jetting. I have lost count whether I have been promised a solution for 2 or 3 weeks by our political and monetary high leaders in Brussels and Frankfurt now but parsing latest news headlines leaves me still waiting.
The continuously incoming bad macro data feed from Eurostat does nothing to instill hope into a self-recovery as rising long term unemployment has been reducing millions of EU citizens from consumers to receivers of a few breadcrumbs left over in nation's depleted coffers.
A stream of high level meetings of G7, G8, G20, Eurozone finance ministers, EU finance ministers, a group of 24 central bankers has yielded little in agreement and nothing in action in the last 4 weeks.
This time the imploding UK, fearing a crash of the pound, is the roadblock for EU wide reform. The City fends off every attempt of effective financial regulation, fearing a decline of importance in international finance.
While the US seen has seen more than 500 mortgage lenders and banks go bust since 2007, Europe's banks push their problems with creative off balance sheet accounting into the future. Except for the UK bank runs could be avoided by now and this leaves only the conclusion that the old continent has yet to face an inevitable future of a major reduction of the bank sector.

The resulting Euro weakness - Greek PM Papandreou threatened a state default on Tuesday - may be a welcome boost for ailing Federal Reserve Notes (FRN) but I would not become too FRN bullish. Altogether the US' problems are much worse than Europe. While both regions face the same problems of unemployment, demographics and an economy FUBAR, Europe is at least not saddled with a handful of undeclared wars: Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
As I get from Wednesday morning news no solution has been found and I assume we can remain in standby mode until Papandreou meets US President Barack Obama on March 9. But what can we expect from a meeting of 2 leaders of bankrupt nations? There cannot be any real cash on the table.

Túlio escreveu:

Adam Bourne Smith escreveu: Discussão irrelevante.

A UE é uma união monetária, um bloco econômico com ambições de união política. Portanto, todos estão no mesmo barco e a solidariedade, espírito de grupo e regras comuns são uma necessidade para que que a união se sustente. Se isso não existe é melhor matar o euro e deixar cada um por si. Enquanto se discute o nhe-nhe de quem é o culpado, quem deve ajudar quem, de deveres e obrigações, quem se beneficiou e perdeu, quem é o fod%$# e o coitadinho, a zona toda vai para o buraco.

Duvido que dêem o tiro de misericórdia no Euro, daí sim, o mundo virava definitivamente de cabeça para baixo. Já estão dando um jeito na Grécia e o resto vai se aprumar com o tempo. Quem mais lucrou (França e Alemanha) vai ter que ajudar a pagar a conta. Ou isso ou perdem muito mais na continuação...

Dandolo Bourne Bagetti escreveu:P.S. Continuo lendo, mas não apareço na discussão das aéreas por um tempo longo e indefinido.

Sortudo. Não posso me dar a esse luxo...

P44 escreveu:George Soros & Wall Street envolvidos em esquema para destruir o Euro

Economia
Ministro alemão: quem não cumprir PEC deve sair da Zona Euro

Fundo Monetário Europeu pode ajudar países em dificuldades, mas com sanções reforçadas: direitos de voto suspensos e multas

* PorRedacção PGM
* 2010-03-12 15:24


O ministro das Finanças alemão, Wolfgang Schauble, defende que os países que não cumprirem as regras de consolidação das finanças públicas devem sair da Zona Euro.

Num artigo de opinião publicado no «Financial Times», o governante da maior economia europeia é peremptório sobre esta matéria: «Se um país membro da Zona Euro, no limite, não conseguir consolidar o seu orçamento ou restaurar a sua competitividade, este país, deve, como solução de último recurso, sair da zona euro, embora mantendo-se como membro da União Europeia».

«Encarar uma realidade desagradável pode ser a melhor opção em determinadas circunstâncias», diz, acrescentando que «um país cujas finanças estão em convulsão não deve participar em decisões relativas às finanças de outro membro».

Mais: Wolfgang Schauble sugere que quem não cumprir os limites definidos por Bruxelas, em termos de défices, deve ver suspensos os seus direitos de voto no Eurogrupo.

A favor de um Fundo Monetário Europeu

O ministro fala, noutro artigo de opinião, na eventual criação de um Fundo Monetário Europeu, que servirá para emprestar liquidez de emergência aos países do euro em dificuldades financeiras. Mas o ministro diz que esta medida deve ser tomada só em último recurso e com sanções reforçadas, sob a forma de multas infligidas após o final do programa de ajuda.

O Fundo serviria também para impedir preços proibitivos praticados pelos mercados, cita a Lusa.

Para Schauble, a decisão sobre esta possibilidade deve caber ao Eurogrupo, de acordo com o Banco Central Europeu (BCE)

GustavoB escreveu:Alguém ouviu falar algo do tipo: "O problema da Grécia começou com as Olimpíadas"?

Merkel defende que Zona Euro deve poder expulsar um país que não cumpra condições para manter moeda única

Hoje às 12:00

A chanceler alemã, Angela Merkel admitiu, esta quarta-feira, que um país europeu seja obrigado, em último recurso, a sair da Zona Euro se, «repetidamente, não cumprir as condições» necessárias para se manter na moeda única.
Esta posição da chefe do Governo alemão vem enfatizar as declarações do seu ministro das Finanças que, na semana passada, num artigo de opinião no Financial Times, defendeu a mesma ideia.

O ministro das Finanças alemão, Wolfgang Schauble, apelou para a saída da Zona Euro dos países que não consigam consolidar as finanças públicas ou reestruturar a economia.

«Se um país membro da Zona Euro, no limite, não conseguir consolidar o seu orçamento ou restaurar a sua competitividade, este país, deve, como solução de último recurso, sair da Zona Euro, embora mantendo-se como membro da União Europeia», escreve o ministro das Finanças, num artigo em que a situação das finanças públicas gregas é analisado.

«Encarar uma realidade desagradável pode ser a melhor opção em determinadas circunstâncias», afirma o responsável pelas finanças alemãs, sugerindo também que «um país cujas finanças estão em convulsão não deve participar em decisões relativas às finanças de outro membro» e que não cumprir os limites definidos por Bruxelas deve levar à «suspensão dos direitos de voto no Eurogrupo».

http://tsf.sapo.pt/PaginaInicial/Internacional/