Re: Crise Econômica Mundial
Enviado: Sex Fev 26, 2010 6:02 pm
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ate1-.htmlRussian Growth Forecast Raised to 6.2% at Citigroup
By Maria Levitov
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. raised its forecast for the pace of Russian economic growth to 6.2 percent this year as consumer spending accelerates.
Russia’s economy may expand faster than the previous forecast of 3 percent, supported by an increase in incomes, Elina Ribakova and Natalia Novikova, analysts at Citigroup in Moscow, wrote in a report e-mailed today. Real wages are set to increase by about 6 percent, they said.
“We believe the economy will already have turned to growth in the first quarter, supported by a pick-up in household consumption,” the report said.
Russian retail sales rose for the first time in a year in January as slowing inflation and higher wages boosted spending. Sales grew an annual 0.3 percent and real wages advanced an annual 2.6 percent in the same month, according to the Federal Statistics Service. Inflation slowed to an annual 8 percent.
The central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate for the 11th time since April on Feb. 19 after earlier cuts proved insufficient to spur lending growth. Domestic demand remains “unstable” and below pre-crisis levels even as the economy has recently posted improvements in industrial output and real disposable incomes, Bank Rossii said on Feb. 19.
“Loose fiscal and monetary policies will, in our view, stoke domestic demand and inflation, forcing the central bank to allow ruble appreciation” in the second half, Citigroup said. The ruble is likely to strengthen to about 34 against the euro- dollar basket, according to the report.
The economy of the world’s biggest energy exporter contracted a record 7.9 percent last year. The statistics office has yet to publish fourth quarter data, though some economists have estimated the decline eased in the final three months.
Gross domestic product shrank an annual 2.2 percent last quarter, ING Bank NV said on Feb. 2. That compares with an 8.9 percent decline in the third quarter and a record 10.9 percent slump in the second.