Fórum Defesa Brasil

knigh7 escreveu: ↑Sex Ago 04, 2023 1:35 am

Para a inteligência militar francesa, a guerra na Ucrânia pode durar até 2024 ou até 2025
A contra-ofensiva ucraniana não beneficiou de um efeito surpresa, por duas razões: foi precedida por uma importante comunicação estratégica e os russos reorganizaram-se na linha da frente resultante da ofensiva do outono passado e tiveram nove meses para preparar um dispositivo defensivo estruturado em profundidade, que os ucranianos estão lutando para romper, detalhou o DRM . E para acrescentar: Contribui para o desgaste dos dois beligerantes.

Além disso, com a linha de frente com 900 km de extensão, as forças ucranianas se expõem a contra-ataques do adversário russo, que está atualmente em processo de"produção [...] de um esforço no norte, na região de Kupiansk, próximo ao fronteira.

Ao longo do verão, as capacidades de aproveitar oportunidades surgirão em ambos os lados. Quando se lança uma ofensiva como fazem os ucranianos, há que se concentrar os esforços em determinados pontos da linha da frente para maximizar os efeitos produzidos, o que pode enfraquecer outros setores da frente, criando assim oportunidades para o partido adversário”, de facto desenvolveu o general Langlade de Montgros.

Além disso, com a perspectiva de um outono "raspoutitsa", a hipótese de um status quo da linha de frente é mais provável do que a de um avanço ou colapso de um dos dois beligerantes, eles estão desgastados e tanto a guerra faz parte tanto do longo prazo quanto de um aprofundamento estratégico estruturado de ambos os lados, estimou.

No entanto, a guerra poderia terminar se, e de acordo com o modelo Clausewitziano, o centro de gravidade de um dos beligerantes cedesse.

O centro de gravidade da Ucrânia é provavelmente a coesão da aliança ocidental. Se enfraquecer, se o apoio se tornar mais heterogêneo ou mais contestado em certos países, isso não facilitará o trabalho dos ucranianos no curto prazo e, em geral, enfraquecerá suas chances de alcançar seus objetivos. Do lado russo, o centro de gravidade é provavelmente a solidez do sistema Putiniano. Se entrasse em colapso, sem dúvida testemunharíamos uma rápida decadência do aparato militar russo”, resumiu o DRM .

Túlio escreveu: ↑Sáb Ago 05, 2023 8:42 pm

Quando uma unidade aparentemente SPECOPS da Ucrânia consegue penetrar numa trincheira guarnecida por conscritos ou mesmo irregulares, a coisa acaba sendo BRUTAL (o cara parece pensar que é o JOHN WICK ):

prp escreveu: ↑Dom Ago 06, 2023 4:00 pm

Túlio escreveu: ↑Sáb Ago 05, 2023 8:42 pm

Quando uma unidade aparentemente SPECOPS da Ucrânia consegue penetrar numa trincheira guarnecida por conscritos ou mesmo irregulares, a coisa acaba sendo BRUTAL (o cara parece pensar que é o JOHN WICK ):

Os conscritos completamente perdidos. Talvez pela ausência de som de disparos, já que os ucranianos estavam com supressores (parece)

About increasing the production of ammunition in the USA

The Financial Times reports that officials in the United States are actively working to increase the production of 155 mm ammunition, including with a view to further deliveries to Ukraine.

By 2025, the Americans plan to increase the production of shells for howitzers M777 to the level of 90 thousand ammunition per month.

For these purposes, defense enterprises are being re-equipped in the Canadian province of Ontario, as well as new workshops are being erected in the state of Texas. Similar complexes will be built in the states of Iowa, Arkansas and Kansas.

In addition, the US administration has concluded agreements on the supply of 155-mm shells of the AFU with Bulgaria and the Republic of Korea, and is also currently talks with the leadership of Japan.

In the situation described, it is embarrassing that the existing production facilities in the United States produce only 24 thousand ammunition per month - this is about 100 shells per hour when working in one shift of 8 hours. This is not enough even for a modest defense plant with conveyor lines. Only by the decision to introduce a second shift can output be increased to 40,000 without the need to develop new enterprises.

However, the remark would be true if the West did not pursue the goal of using as much money as possible, including the construction of additional infrastructure under the pretext of the Ukrainian conflict. Not to mention the fact that with the current intensity of the artillery battle, the amount of ammunition produced is enough for just a few days.

Returning to a recent publication, it is curious how in the recently “pacifist” Japan they plan to abolish the principles prohibiting the export of weapons, and are already talks with the Americans on the supply of 155 mm ammunition. It seems that the military-industrial complex of the United States is already short of Japanese gunpowder, the supply of which was discussed in June of this year.

Most likely, the Japanese will not stop only at the export of ammunition. Most recently, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida demanded that the ruling coalition abolish three principles regarding the dispatch of weapons. Negotiations on the issue were supposed to intensify in the fall, but the Japanese leader insisted that a decision be made as soon as possible.

But there is a catch - the population does not support such measures. 48% of participants in a recent poll were against the export of weapons and equipment, while 32% of those polled are in favor of such a change in the country's policy. Kishida does not enjoy much support among the citizens of Japan anyway - the abolition of export restrictions will mean an even greater decline in the prime minister's rating.

It can be assumed that this will not stop him. Still, Japan strongly stands out from the G7 countries, each of which, in one way or another, supports Ukraine with weapons. So far, only body armor, gas masks and vehicles have been sent to Kyiv from the Japanese side.

Wish authorities in Tokyo to "play by the rules", as well as the influence of the United States on the Japanese political course, is likely to outweigh the dissatisfaction of some parties within the country. And public opinion will be defiantly ignored, as has already happened and is happening in other countries, where the authorities continue to deliver AFU to the detriment of the economy.

In this regard, we will wait for the PR campaigns of Japanese weapons, as was the case with Western tanks. Although active advertising will not help much here - modern weapons and equipment produced in the country, in fact, have never been used in combat conditions, and therefore it is not clear how effective they will be.

Rocket attack on Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - the arrival fell on the restaurant where the mercenaries gathered, and the hotel where the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were staying

The Russian army attacked the Druzhba hotel located in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) - presumably, the headquarters and personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were based there. The blow also hit the Corleone restaurant, a favorite place for mercenaries, which the locals themselves admit.

Near the hotel there are railway tracks along which military support could pass. And to the north of Druzhba there are a lot of warehouses and car maintenance enterprises. Thus, weapons and ammunition could be stored there, and repair shops have been working for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time. Local authorities and Zelensky have already confirmed the arrival.