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'The Orchestra Needs Musicians': Behind The Covert Mobilization To Reinforce Russian Troops In Ukraine
Russian conscripts attend a ceremony before their departure for garrisons in Omsk, Russia, on June 17. Russia has mandatory conscription, where all men between 18 and 27 are required to serve at least a year in the armed forces.
The flyer appeared earlier this month, pasted to the walls of apartment building entryways in the Moscow suburb of Odintsovo -- and hard to miss above the announcement for when the building's hot water would be shut off for maintenance.
"Wanted: men between 20 and 55 years old to serve as volunteer contract soldiers; starting salary 200,000 rubles ($3,400) a month. Contact the Odintsovo military recruitment center."
State TV newscasts feature telephone numbers where volunteers can call to get information about joining the "special operation" in Ukraine. Headhunter websites are littered with vacancies for "contract soldiers." Reports say Russian officials want to create "volunteer battalions" in every one of the country's 80-plus regions, generating up to 34,000 new troops for the war effort, according to one think tank.
Nearly five months after launching the largest war in Europe since World War II, Russia's military has a problem: not enough men; too many dead and wounded.
Russian officials are conducting a sweeping campaign to recruit more men to replenish the ranks of its units waging war on Ukraine, which the Kremlin calls a "special military operation."
News that Russia was scrambling to find more personnel has been well documented in recent weeks. Lawmakers in May voted to raise the upper age limit for military service so men over 40 can now enlist.
But how civilian and military officials are going about it -- trying to recruit thousands without provoking backlash from Russian society -- has only come into focus more recently.
"It's not mobilization," said Oleg Ignatov, a Russian analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research organization. "They don't want to declare war, for the time being. But they need men, infantry. They've experienced serious losses, and the success of this military operation won't happen without serious recruitment of new people.
"It's a flexible system, like covert recruiting, a hybrid system," he told RFE/RL. "But no one is forcing anyone to do anything. "
"Russia is facing a systemic manpower issue, and they are using multiple ad-hoc methods to fill in the gaps with volunteers, mercenaries, prison battalions, and personnel from other parts of the government like the national guard," said Dara Massicot, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation and former senior analyst at the U.S. Defense Department. "It results in minimally trained soldiers and presumable lack of cohesion at the unit level."
"It's really like spackle on a wall at this point," she said.
Overall, Russia's losses are believed to be substantial. Western intelligence agencies say at least 15,000 troops have been killed, with higher estimates exceeding 20,000 -- a figure that exceeds the Soviet military's entire death toll over 10 years of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The last public announcement of death toll by Russia's Defense Ministry in March was 1,351 killed in action.
‘Become A Winner. Prove You're A Real Man.'
In the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, a military recruiter posted a video on July 11 on social media calling for men to sign up for the "special military operation." The advanced age of the recruiter and his halting presentation drew mockery from Russians and Ukrainians alike.
Still, like in Odintsovo, the beginning monthly salary, the recruiter said, was 200,000 rubles ($3,400), about four times the average salary nationwide and a princely sum in regions where the cost of living and average salaries tend to be lower than in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
On Vesti Nedeli, a weekly state TV news magazine show broadcast nationwide, a segment shown on July 12 about local military units in southern Russia, featured three hotlines that viewers could call "for voluntary participation in the special military operation in Ukraine."
The Odintsovo flyer recruiting male volunteers appeared sometime around July 1, according to the local resident who photographed it and shared it with RFE/RL. The person, who asked not to be named, said it was unclear if anyone had responded to it but noted that her neighborhood was a new, well-to-do development where younger people and young families lived.
Russia's most notorious private military company, Vagner, has also been aggressively recruiting. The company, which is widely believed to be owned by St. Petersburg businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, gained notoriety during earlier deployments in Syria and the Central African Republic and has also been seen in other countries like Libya and Mozambique.
Vagner units have also been on the front lines on the battlefield in Ukraine's Donbas; Ukrainian military intelligence say the units were at the vanguard of offensive operations to take the cities of Mariupol and, more recently, Syevyerodonetsk.
As part of its marketing campaign, the company appears to have produced short video clips, published and reposted on the Russian social media networks VK and Odnoklassniki. Many feature pounding, heavy guitar music with the words "Become a winner. Prove you're a real man." Longer videos are published on its website, which appears to be accessible only within Russia.
"Do you want to inscribe your name in the history of military glory, but don't want to fight bureaucracy and controls? Then there's good news for you: The orchestra needs musicians in Ukraine!" the page's main appeal says. "Join us to liberate the entire Donbas! Embark on your first combat campaign with living industry legends!"
There was no immediate response to messages sent via the website's portal by RFE/RL or to its main phone number.
A reporter for the business newspaper RBK posed as an interested volunteer for a report published on July 9, calling several recruiters and private companies to learn the details of volunteering.
"The most important thing is to delete all social networks…so that you are not there. Even old accounts that were there five or six years ago should be deleted. This is the condition of our company," the newspaper quoted one recruiter as saying.
n a detailed investigation published on July 13, the online news site Meduza detailed how Vagner and at least one other private military company worked closely with the Defense Ministry, both on deployments and recruiting, as part of covert mobilization.
"The line between mercenaries, the regular army and 'volunteers' has been completely erased during the war in Ukraine," Meduza said.
"There are no wild units," one private soldier was quoted as saying, using a term that describes independent or autonomous private forces. "Everyone works for the Defense Ministry."
Prigozhin's main company, known as Concord, said in a statement published on July 13 that it intended to sue the authors of the Meduza report under a new law that criminalizes distributing "deliberately false information" about the Russian armed forces.
Regional Recruits
On paper, Russia has a huge military: around 1 million active-duty members including all branches. The country also retains a system of mandatory conscription, where all men between 18 and 27 are required to serve at least a year in the armed forces, although many find ways to avoid service.
The military runs two cycles of conscription, in April and in September. This April, 135,000 men were drafted.
Conscript soldiers are forbidden from serving abroad, including in Ukraine. In the early days after the invasion, some conscripts were deployed in the invasion, something the Kremlin said was not supposed to have happened.
The ongoing national recruiting campaign reportedly includes efforts to pressure conscripts nearing the end of mandatory service -- something that will occur in the next two months for the September cycle -- to sign on for new volunteer contracts.
"Russia needed a systematic solution to its manpower problems months ago like a large reservist mobilization or even partial mobilization," Massicot said, "but such efforts would be politically unpopular and also structurally difficult for Russia's mobilization system."
So far, it is unclear how effective the recruiting campaign has been. The Defense Ministry, regional recruiting centers, and private companies release no figures on new personnel.
Public opinion polling, limited and influenced by wartime patriotic sentiments, shows that most Russians more or less support the military operation.
...
https://www.rferl.org/a/covert-mobiliza ... 43783.html
Russian conscripts attend a ceremony before their departure for garrisons in Omsk, Russia, on June 17. Russia has mandatory conscription, where all men between 18 and 27 are required to serve at least a year in the armed forces.
The flyer appeared earlier this month, pasted to the walls of apartment building entryways in the Moscow suburb of Odintsovo -- and hard to miss above the announcement for when the building's hot water would be shut off for maintenance.
"Wanted: men between 20 and 55 years old to serve as volunteer contract soldiers; starting salary 200,000 rubles ($3,400) a month. Contact the Odintsovo military recruitment center."
State TV newscasts feature telephone numbers where volunteers can call to get information about joining the "special operation" in Ukraine. Headhunter websites are littered with vacancies for "contract soldiers." Reports say Russian officials want to create "volunteer battalions" in every one of the country's 80-plus regions, generating up to 34,000 new troops for the war effort, according to one think tank.
Nearly five months after launching the largest war in Europe since World War II, Russia's military has a problem: not enough men; too many dead and wounded.
Russian officials are conducting a sweeping campaign to recruit more men to replenish the ranks of its units waging war on Ukraine, which the Kremlin calls a "special military operation."
News that Russia was scrambling to find more personnel has been well documented in recent weeks. Lawmakers in May voted to raise the upper age limit for military service so men over 40 can now enlist.
But how civilian and military officials are going about it -- trying to recruit thousands without provoking backlash from Russian society -- has only come into focus more recently.
"It's not mobilization," said Oleg Ignatov, a Russian analyst with the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research organization. "They don't want to declare war, for the time being. But they need men, infantry. They've experienced serious losses, and the success of this military operation won't happen without serious recruitment of new people.
"It's a flexible system, like covert recruiting, a hybrid system," he told RFE/RL. "But no one is forcing anyone to do anything. "
"Russia is facing a systemic manpower issue, and they are using multiple ad-hoc methods to fill in the gaps with volunteers, mercenaries, prison battalions, and personnel from other parts of the government like the national guard," said Dara Massicot, a policy researcher at the Rand Corporation and former senior analyst at the U.S. Defense Department. "It results in minimally trained soldiers and presumable lack of cohesion at the unit level."
"It's really like spackle on a wall at this point," she said.
Overall, Russia's losses are believed to be substantial. Western intelligence agencies say at least 15,000 troops have been killed, with higher estimates exceeding 20,000 -- a figure that exceeds the Soviet military's entire death toll over 10 years of war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The last public announcement of death toll by Russia's Defense Ministry in March was 1,351 killed in action.
‘Become A Winner. Prove You're A Real Man.'
In the Tver region, northwest of Moscow, a military recruiter posted a video on July 11 on social media calling for men to sign up for the "special military operation." The advanced age of the recruiter and his halting presentation drew mockery from Russians and Ukrainians alike.
Still, like in Odintsovo, the beginning monthly salary, the recruiter said, was 200,000 rubles ($3,400), about four times the average salary nationwide and a princely sum in regions where the cost of living and average salaries tend to be lower than in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
On Vesti Nedeli, a weekly state TV news magazine show broadcast nationwide, a segment shown on July 12 about local military units in southern Russia, featured three hotlines that viewers could call "for voluntary participation in the special military operation in Ukraine."
The Odintsovo flyer recruiting male volunteers appeared sometime around July 1, according to the local resident who photographed it and shared it with RFE/RL. The person, who asked not to be named, said it was unclear if anyone had responded to it but noted that her neighborhood was a new, well-to-do development where younger people and young families lived.
Russia's most notorious private military company, Vagner, has also been aggressively recruiting. The company, which is widely believed to be owned by St. Petersburg businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, gained notoriety during earlier deployments in Syria and the Central African Republic and has also been seen in other countries like Libya and Mozambique.
Vagner units have also been on the front lines on the battlefield in Ukraine's Donbas; Ukrainian military intelligence say the units were at the vanguard of offensive operations to take the cities of Mariupol and, more recently, Syevyerodonetsk.
As part of its marketing campaign, the company appears to have produced short video clips, published and reposted on the Russian social media networks VK and Odnoklassniki. Many feature pounding, heavy guitar music with the words "Become a winner. Prove you're a real man." Longer videos are published on its website, which appears to be accessible only within Russia.
"Do you want to inscribe your name in the history of military glory, but don't want to fight bureaucracy and controls? Then there's good news for you: The orchestra needs musicians in Ukraine!" the page's main appeal says. "Join us to liberate the entire Donbas! Embark on your first combat campaign with living industry legends!"
There was no immediate response to messages sent via the website's portal by RFE/RL or to its main phone number.
A reporter for the business newspaper RBK posed as an interested volunteer for a report published on July 9, calling several recruiters and private companies to learn the details of volunteering.
"The most important thing is to delete all social networks…so that you are not there. Even old accounts that were there five or six years ago should be deleted. This is the condition of our company," the newspaper quoted one recruiter as saying.
n a detailed investigation published on July 13, the online news site Meduza detailed how Vagner and at least one other private military company worked closely with the Defense Ministry, both on deployments and recruiting, as part of covert mobilization.
"The line between mercenaries, the regular army and 'volunteers' has been completely erased during the war in Ukraine," Meduza said.
"There are no wild units," one private soldier was quoted as saying, using a term that describes independent or autonomous private forces. "Everyone works for the Defense Ministry."
Prigozhin's main company, known as Concord, said in a statement published on July 13 that it intended to sue the authors of the Meduza report under a new law that criminalizes distributing "deliberately false information" about the Russian armed forces.
Regional Recruits
On paper, Russia has a huge military: around 1 million active-duty members including all branches. The country also retains a system of mandatory conscription, where all men between 18 and 27 are required to serve at least a year in the armed forces, although many find ways to avoid service.
The military runs two cycles of conscription, in April and in September. This April, 135,000 men were drafted.
Conscript soldiers are forbidden from serving abroad, including in Ukraine. In the early days after the invasion, some conscripts were deployed in the invasion, something the Kremlin said was not supposed to have happened.
The ongoing national recruiting campaign reportedly includes efforts to pressure conscripts nearing the end of mandatory service -- something that will occur in the next two months for the September cycle -- to sign on for new volunteer contracts.
"Russia needed a systematic solution to its manpower problems months ago like a large reservist mobilization or even partial mobilization," Massicot said, "but such efforts would be politically unpopular and also structurally difficult for Russia's mobilization system."
So far, it is unclear how effective the recruiting campaign has been. The Defense Ministry, regional recruiting centers, and private companies release no figures on new personnel.
Public opinion polling, limited and influenced by wartime patriotic sentiments, shows that most Russians more or less support the military operation.
...
https://www.rferl.org/a/covert-mobiliza ... 43783.html
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Re: RÚSSIA
Mais EURUKROPIUM: só acredito se o Creepy Joe disser (basta lembrar que ele "cantava a pedra" quase que diariamente antes de o pau comer por lá).
PS.: e vão fazer o que se acontecer? Na prática é apenas MAIS UMA PROVA de que a Europa Ocidental é o grupo de peões (ou seja, facilmente sacrificáveis) dos EUA nesse pré-apocalíptico jogo de xadrez.
PS.: e vão fazer o que se acontecer? Na prática é apenas MAIS UMA PROVA de que a Europa Ocidental é o grupo de peões (ou seja, facilmente sacrificáveis) dos EUA nesse pré-apocalíptico jogo de xadrez.
“Look at these people. Wandering around with absolutely no idea what's about to happen.”
P. Sullivan (Margin Call, 2011)
P. Sullivan (Margin Call, 2011)
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Re: RÚSSIA
Ou seja se a Rússia fizer MAIS este ataque terrorista, a culpa é da UE?!
Ou que se isto acontecer será mais uma entre um horror de provas factuais de que o regime em Moscovo não é de se fiar e deve ser combatido?!
Ou que se isto acontecer será mais uma entre um horror de provas factuais de que o regime em Moscovo não é de se fiar e deve ser combatido?!
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Re: RÚSSIA
cabeça de martelo escreveu: ↑Sex Jul 15, 2022 1:49 pm Ou seja se a Rússia fizer MAIS este ataque terrorista, a culpa é da UE?!
Ou que se isto acontecer será mais uma entre um horror de provas factuais de que o regime em Moscovo não é de se fiar e deve ser combatido?!
Cupincha véio, tu continuas a tentar levar uma coisa tão desgraçada como uma guerra para o terreno moral e ético (e depois descambas para o sentimentalismo), quando isso nem existe em situações assim: achas que foi muito elevado e ético os ianques e brits arrasarem cidades Alemãs que nada tinham a ver com o esforço militar nazista, como Munique, e mirando diretamente na população civil? Ou o que foi feito no Iraque e Afeganistão? No Vietnã?
Ah sim, há a crueldade du béim e a DU MÁU, claro claro...
Ah sim, há a crueldade du béim e a DU MÁU, claro claro...
“Look at these people. Wandering around with absolutely no idea what's about to happen.”
P. Sullivan (Margin Call, 2011)
P. Sullivan (Margin Call, 2011)
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Re: RÚSSIA
2ª GM?! Queres descrever o que foi a guerra de Inglaterra? Antes disso queres descrever o que foi Guarnica?Túlio escreveu: ↑Sex Jul 15, 2022 2:03 pmcabeça de martelo escreveu: ↑Sex Jul 15, 2022 1:49 pm Ou seja se a Rússia fizer MAIS este ataque terrorista, a culpa é da UE?!
Ou que se isto acontecer será mais uma entre um horror de provas factuais de que o regime em Moscovo não é de se fiar e deve ser combatido?!Cupincha véio, tu continuas a tentar levar uma coisa tão desgraçada como uma guerra para o terreno moral e ético (e depois descambas para o sentimentalismo), quando isso nem existe em situações assim: achas que foi muito elevado e ético os ianques e brits arrasarem cidades Alemãs que nada tinham a ver com o esforço militar nazista, como Munique, e mirando diretamente na população civil? Ou o que foi feito no Iraque e Afeganistão? No Vietnã?
Ah sim, há a crueldade du béim e a DU MÁU, claro claro...
Vamos comparar o que está descrito acima com o bombardeamento que foi feito no Iraque ou no Afeganistão?! Queres que eu descreva as missões que o PILAV Português fez no Afeganistão ou como foi feita o apoio aéreo ao contingente Português no Iraque nos combates urbanos? Nada mas mesmo nada tem haver com o que está descrito acima.
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Re: RÚSSIA
The Russian Army Is Sending New Recruits To War With Just A Month Of Training
Desperate to reinforce its battered forces in Ukraine, the Kremlin is raising scores of volunteer battalions—and plans to rush them to the front after just 30 days of training.
A month isn’t enough to train an individual recruit in a soldier’s individual tasks—to say nothing of training the battalion as a whole to fight and survive against battle-hardened Ukrainian formations.
“This drive will likely produce ‘soldiers’ of lower quality than the normal conscripts,” the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War explained.
The Russian army deployed essentially all of its skilled soldiers for Russia’s wider war in Ukraine starting on Feb. 23: around 150,000 personnel in more than a hundred battalion tactical groups.
These first-line soldiers did a lot of the dying in the war’s early months. Analysts estimated as many as 15,000 Russians died in Ukraine by mid-May. The wounded likely numbered in the tens of thousands.
The Russian army in the subsequent two months surely has suffered thousands more killed and wounded. The army of the pro-Russian separatist “republic” in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast reported losing more than half its pre-war strength of 20,000 in the first 100 days of the wider war, so it’s not inconceivable the Russian army by now has buried or sent home more than 60,000 of its best-trained and most experienced people.
Such steep losses are impossible for the Kremlin immediately to make good. The best it can do is partially to replace its dead and wounded with partially trained recruits—and at great cost.
There were signs of desperation back in May, when the Russian army announced it would begin forming front-line units around the so-called “third battalions” in existing combat brigades. The third battalion, staffed with short-term conscripts, is a brigade’s constabulary and training base. Third battalions were never meant to fight.
The desperation deepened as the war ground on. In June the Kremlin began forming the first of as many as 85 volunteer battalions with around 34,000 troops between them. That effort intensified this month, ISW reported. The government in Moscow is paying new recruits at least $3,000 a month—a not insignificant sum in Russia.
Each battalion will have around 400 soldiers between the ages of 18 and 60. “Recruits are not required to have prior military service and will undergo only 30 days of training before deployment to Ukraine,” ISW noted.
Commanders reportedly are promising some recruits they won’t be sent to Ukraine. “We consider such promises a lie, because with the existing shortage of personnel, all volunteer battalions will fight on the front line and suffer losses,” the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent investigative organization originating in Russia, wrote in its latest dispatch.
A month of training isn’t enough to prepare a recruit for the rigors of mechanized warfare. For comparison, a U.S. Army infantry recruit endures more than five months of training before arriving at their first battalion, where the unit-level and pre-deployment training then continues. It’d be unusual for an American infantryman to deploy for combat with less than a year of training.
The training shortfall isn’t the only problem with Russia’s latest mobilization. The volunteer battalions also are falling in on very old equipment.
Having written off nearly 5,000 armored vehicles that outside analysts can confirm, the Russian army increasingly is pulling out of storage and readying for combat 1980s-vintage—or older—T-62 tanks and MT-LB armored tractors.
The combination of undertrained replacement soldiers—and too few of them—riding in outdated vehicles bodes poorly for Russia’s war effort.
“The aging vehicles, weapons and Soviet-era tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regaining or building momentum unless used in overwhelming mass–which Russia is currently unable to bring to bear,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 3de3f4701b
Desperate to reinforce its battered forces in Ukraine, the Kremlin is raising scores of volunteer battalions—and plans to rush them to the front after just 30 days of training.
A month isn’t enough to train an individual recruit in a soldier’s individual tasks—to say nothing of training the battalion as a whole to fight and survive against battle-hardened Ukrainian formations.
“This drive will likely produce ‘soldiers’ of lower quality than the normal conscripts,” the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War explained.
The Russian army deployed essentially all of its skilled soldiers for Russia’s wider war in Ukraine starting on Feb. 23: around 150,000 personnel in more than a hundred battalion tactical groups.
These first-line soldiers did a lot of the dying in the war’s early months. Analysts estimated as many as 15,000 Russians died in Ukraine by mid-May. The wounded likely numbered in the tens of thousands.
The Russian army in the subsequent two months surely has suffered thousands more killed and wounded. The army of the pro-Russian separatist “republic” in Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast reported losing more than half its pre-war strength of 20,000 in the first 100 days of the wider war, so it’s not inconceivable the Russian army by now has buried or sent home more than 60,000 of its best-trained and most experienced people.
Such steep losses are impossible for the Kremlin immediately to make good. The best it can do is partially to replace its dead and wounded with partially trained recruits—and at great cost.
There were signs of desperation back in May, when the Russian army announced it would begin forming front-line units around the so-called “third battalions” in existing combat brigades. The third battalion, staffed with short-term conscripts, is a brigade’s constabulary and training base. Third battalions were never meant to fight.
The desperation deepened as the war ground on. In June the Kremlin began forming the first of as many as 85 volunteer battalions with around 34,000 troops between them. That effort intensified this month, ISW reported. The government in Moscow is paying new recruits at least $3,000 a month—a not insignificant sum in Russia.
Each battalion will have around 400 soldiers between the ages of 18 and 60. “Recruits are not required to have prior military service and will undergo only 30 days of training before deployment to Ukraine,” ISW noted.
Commanders reportedly are promising some recruits they won’t be sent to Ukraine. “We consider such promises a lie, because with the existing shortage of personnel, all volunteer battalions will fight on the front line and suffer losses,” the Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent investigative organization originating in Russia, wrote in its latest dispatch.
A month of training isn’t enough to prepare a recruit for the rigors of mechanized warfare. For comparison, a U.S. Army infantry recruit endures more than five months of training before arriving at their first battalion, where the unit-level and pre-deployment training then continues. It’d be unusual for an American infantryman to deploy for combat with less than a year of training.
The training shortfall isn’t the only problem with Russia’s latest mobilization. The volunteer battalions also are falling in on very old equipment.
Having written off nearly 5,000 armored vehicles that outside analysts can confirm, the Russian army increasingly is pulling out of storage and readying for combat 1980s-vintage—or older—T-62 tanks and MT-LB armored tractors.
The combination of undertrained replacement soldiers—and too few of them—riding in outdated vehicles bodes poorly for Russia’s war effort.
“The aging vehicles, weapons and Soviet-era tactics used by Russian forces do not lend themselves to quickly regaining or building momentum unless used in overwhelming mass–which Russia is currently unable to bring to bear,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 3de3f4701b
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https://dsm.forecastinternational.com/w ... w-systems/
Discretion Assured? Russia’s ICBM Force Protected by a Wide Variety of EW Systems