Analysis: F-X2, The Competitors
Some quick handicapping follows.
Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS/European): Technology transfer may prove to be an issue, but price is likely to be the biggest one. Eurofighters consistently sell for $110-130 million, which doesn’t square well with $2.2 billion for 36 planes. The most capable air-air choice in the group would provide unquestioned regional air superiority, but ground surveillance and strike performance is still provisional (Tranche I v6), or unproven (Tranche 2+). This has been fatal in competitions like Singapore’s, and may prove a handicap here.
On the plus side, EADS Airbus offers a potent option for industrial offsets, and may attract additional military interest with its A400M medium transport.
Gripen w. “smokewinders”
JAS-39 Gripen (Saab/BAE) Saab offers strong industrial partnerships via its automotive parent, and has a record of successful technology transfer agreements. The next-generation Gripen Demo program offers key opportunities in this area. It also offers a high-performance, affordable fighter that can operate from highways if need be, and would give Brazil’s Air Force commonality with A-Darter missile partner South Africa. These factors make Gripen a strong contender. Its F404/F414 engine offers the advantages of certain performance and a very broad customer base, but is subject to US export approvals if that’s an issue for Brazil.
A more pressing weakness may be the fact that each plane only has one engine, since Brazil combines vast over-water areas and even vaster wilderness areas to patrol. Those requirements usually translate into a focus on range and 2-engine safety, which have worked against Gripen in other competitions. Most of Brazil’s other fighters (Tucano ALX, AMX, Mirage 2000) have just one engine, however, so it’s a question of how the RFP requirements are set.
F-35 Lightning II (Lockheed, international) Industrial partnership and technology transfer issues are likely to prove difficult to overcome, and the aircraft’s air-air performance is questionable against Venezuela’s SU-30MKs. The timeline may also prove difficult given the low likelihood of deliveries much before 2016, and its single engine faces the handicap of Brazil’s long over-water and over-wilderness flights. On the plus side, no aircraft in this group can match the Lightning’s advanced surveillance capabilities, and surveillance is a big need in Brazil. The F-35B STOVL variant also offers the ability to operate from small, dispersed runways, and is perfect for aircraft carriers like Brazil’s Sao Paolo (ex-Foch).
Dassault Rafale: Despite its past history, the Rafale has a lot of advantages in this competition. It can play the carrier-compatible card, since the Sao Paolo was once FNS Foch. Experience with the Mirage 2000 offers a common technological and training base, and France is seen as a good supplier for avoiding political interference and making good on technology transfers. The one real negative is the Rafale’s narrow range of integrated weapons – but offers of partnerships in some of those areas might serve to hit 2 targets at once by playing the tech transfer card more strongly. Since Dassault really, really needs this deal, they should be very motivated on price. If they can’t make it here, they may not be able to make it anywhere.
Sukhoi SU-35: This was the aircraft Russia offered in the last round. Russian tech transfer is trusted, lack of political interference is trusted absolutely, and the aircraft offers an option that’s slightly better than the SU-30MK but still presents itself to the region as an equivalency move. The price will be good, and Sukhoi has some support in the air force – but service and parts delivery are almost guaranteed to be bad, and that gives the FAB real pause.
One wonders if the Russians have considered a partnership with India to offer the even better SU-30MKI, which is partly produced in India and already has all kinds of obvious slots for tech transfer because India insisted upon that, too. A 3-way deal that set up an engine plant in Brazil would offer India and other SU-30 customers a welcome second option, Brazil’s aerospace industry a critical additional puzzle piece, and the FAB removal of the biggest historical problem with Russian planes. Add an avionics hub from Elbit/IAI, whose products already equip a several Brazilian types and can be found in some parts of the SU-30MKI already, and the offer would have most bases covered, plus commonalities with the rest of Brazil’s air force, and new industrial links to the Indian tech sector. The question is whether the Russians are good enough at partnering to pull something like that off, or even willing to try.
Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Block II: The Super Hornet shares the ability to play the carrier-compatible card with Dassault’s Rafale, but compatibility with a smaller carrier like the Sao Paolo would have to be established. Boeing also shares a key advantage with EADS’ Eurofighter when it comes to industrial offsets, thanks to its passenger aircraft division. The Block II version’s proven APG-79 AESA radar offers Brazil an attractive technology, and a weaker American dollar makes American exports more affordable.
On the flip side, the Super Hornet offers poorer aerodynamic performance than other competitors, falling behind in areas like maneuverability, acceleration, et. al. This weakness is compounded by the fact that Super Hornets sell for about $80-90 million each, placing them above the Gripen and SU-35 but below the Eurofighter. Concerns about America’s propensity to use arms export bans as a political lever add a final complication to the Super Hornet’s odds.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/bra ... ram-04179/
Acho que está mais do que na hora do Brasil começar a liderar, deixar de ser capacho e saco de pancadas dos outros.
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